Il suicidio del fracking

[Amati75]

Avessero letto di piu' PIR gli advisros dei paesi OPEC avrebbero risparmiato mld e mld di $ in burned cahs e mancati incassi...

To review, back in 2014, Saudi Arabia, concerned about the loss of market share it had absorbed as the U.S. shale revolution almost doubled U.S. overall production from 2009 through early 2014, embarked on a strategy in which it would intentionally crash the global crude price by dramatically increasing its own production and exports. The thought at that time was that, by crashing the price of oil, drilling in the U.S. would collapse, and producers who were focused on drilling these capital-intensive horizontal shale wells would by and large go out of business. Even better, because the 2014 break-even price of the average U.S. shale well was in the range of $70/bbl, the U.S. industry would remain depressed so long as the price remained below that level.

This strategy had the shortcoming of only being half-right. Drilling in the U.S. did indeed collapse, as the oil rig count dropped like a stone, from more than 1,600 to fewer than 400 in very short order. While few companies ultimately went out of business, well more than 200 U.S. upstream companies have gone through the bankruptcy process, with the assets of some being absorbed by other producers. So that part was right to a large extent.

But what the Saudi market share strategy failed to understand was the impressive nimbleness and aptitude for rapid innovation possessed by the U.S. oil and gas industry. They did not anticipate that service companies and shale producers would be able to so dramatically lower costs and increase recoveries over the past three years through the development of new technologies, the strategic capture of economies of scale, and refinement of internal processes.

Because of that, they also did not anticipate that the break-even cost associated with drilling shale wells in the U.S. would fall to as low as $40/bbl in the Permian Basin, and into the $50/bbl range in some other major shale basins. Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries more recently also failed to understand the urgent need for U.S. producers to drill wells in order to remain going concerns. They apparently had never heard the old oil industry saying that "if you aren't increasing your production, you're going out of business." This saying may be old, but it remains as true in the U.S. today as it was a century ago.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbl.../#36bcda5c7f91


Se avessero letto qui, avrebbero saputo quei punti e fattori gia' anni ed anni fa.

[paulhowe]

US shale oil output to rise by 122,000 barrels per day in June: EIA

[Amati75]

Ma dove sono finiti i supermegafantaesperti? @Metabo @animal aka @l'angelo @Shiiva

US drillers likely to undermine Russia-OPEC plan to boost crude prices

The production cut deal between OPEC, Russia and other producers has stabilized global crude prices, but US shale development could undermine the effect of the agreement’s extension.
Members of the cartel along with Russia and other producers are due to meet on May 25 to prolong the pact. They hope the measure will drive oil prices to $60 per barrel or even more.

At the same time, the attempts to curb production has encouraged American drillers to pump more, maintaing the oversupply and countering expected price rise.

US shale producers are highly resistant to low oil prices with operators building up the inventory of drilled uncompleted wells (DUCs), according to industry experts.

“Should the prices collapse to $40 or even $30 per barrel, a major part of these DUCs can still be completed commercially given that drilling costs are sunk. Therefore, a drastic downward shift in the market conditions will not lead to a rapid collapse of the US oil production,” reads last week's report from Norway-based consultancy Rystad Energy.

Earlier this week, energy ministers from Russia and Saudi Arabia announced plans to urge other producers to extend the November deal for nine month instead of the previously agreed six.

Under the current deal OPEC, Russia and other producers agreed to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) for six months from January 1.

The announcement that the deal could be extended pushed WTI crude to the psychological $50 per barrel level on Tuesday and Brent futures above $52.

If implemented, the cuts extension deal may boost crude to $60 per barrel by the end of the year, but the experts do not expect the gains to spike much higher.

“Basically US supply is coming on faster than we anticipated. Now you have a higher inventory level to begin with, and a slower decline. That means in our view, prices are likely to be lower on average,” said Francisco Blanch from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as quoted by CNBC. Brent will rise to $56 per barrel in 2018, according to Blanch’s forecast.

OPEC and the other producers are likely to cut oil production even more than the current 1.8 million barrels a day, according to Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup.

“I think this market will rebalance itself very quickly. The extension alone should result in deeper cuts,” he said, stressing that US production would stop the rebalancing of the market this year.

https://www.rt.com/business/388668-o...ices-us-shale/


Oh quando vi si dievano ESATTAMENTE queste cose...eh voi eravate gli esperti.. visot che i supermegafantablogs vi dicevano (puttanate) e passano convitnamente "spiegazioni"... ahh che bello poter ricorcare i "vecchi tempi"....

[animal]

non so gli altri ma io non scrivo piu' o raramente, o altre cose da fare.
Pero' con l'avvicinarsi della III G.M. potrei riprendere....

[bimbogigi]

scrivono i 2 salariati.

[Amati75]

non so gli altri ma io non scrivo piu' o raramente, o altre cose da fare.
Pero' con l'avvicinarsi della III G.M. potrei riprendere....

[Amati75]

Il facente parte il trio degli idioti ha qualcosa da dire o vuole semplicemente ricordare che l'idiozia esiste ed egli e' un esemplare di tale mancanza dell evoluzione della specie umana?

Non vi e' necessita' di confermare l'idiozia, lo si sa gia'.

[bimbogigi]

sisi lo sappiano che sei un campione di tale disciplina

[Amati75]

U.S. Shale Roars Back at OPEC

OPEC may get its members to agree to continue to tamp down oil production, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory.

The biggest threat to the 13-member group’s dominance has been U.S. shale.

In November 2014, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to keep production levels high in the hope it could maintain market share. But that was a difficult task to begin with, and since then, U.S. shale producers have become even more efficient.

By the time OPEC reversed course in November 2016, sending oil prices up as much as 10 percent, shale had already gained ground.
There are areas in the enormous Permian and Eagle Ford shale fields in Texas where producers can break even at prices as low as $34 a barrel, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

And analysts now say U.S. shale production will grow even faster than expected. Macquarie Group now thinks production will increase 1.4 million barrels a day through December, up from a previous growth estimate of 0.9 million barrels a day. JPMorgan Chase & Co. doubled its forecast to an increase of 800,000 barrels a day for the same period.

As OPEC and non-OPEC producers (namely Russia) cut back on production, U.S. shale producers are moving to quickly fill the gap. Their output increase is equal to about half of the OPEC cuts and twice that of Russia’s cuts, according to a report out this week by Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank.

“If the production cuts were to be extended, the participating countries would lose further market shares, which they are hardly likely to accept for any length of time,” the report said.



It isn’t going to get a lot better for OPEC in 2018, either. JPMorgan is forecasting U.S. shale to grow by 1.05 million barrels a day next year, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a figure of 950,000 barrels a day.


Even a “drastic” downward shift in the market conditions won’t lead to a rapid collapse of U.S. oil production, according to Rystad Energy. Many wells that have been drilled—but haven’t been completed—could still be brought online profitably if the price falls to $40 or even $30 a barrel, Rystad said in a report on May 11.

Are there any straws that OPEC and Russia can clutch? Well, yes.


OPEC and its allies can only hope that increased U.S. production won’t jeopardize its aim of bringing down global crude stockpiles to the five-year average—putting a floor under prices and making sure they don’t plummet. Otherwise all the efforts of the last six months (and possibly next nine months) will be for nothing.

There have been some good signs. Stockpiles have been on the decline for the past six weeks, falling to 520.8 million barrels in the week ended May 5. More importantly, since the beginning of January, the surplus above the five-year average has fallen from 129 million barrels, to 110 million barrels in the week ended May 12.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-back-at-opec

[paulhowe]

Sempre un piacere pensare che Vladimiro avra dei bruciori di culo......

Rise In Rig Count Threatens To Undermine Recent Oil Price Spike | OilPrice.com