Il suicidio del fracking

[Amati75]

e come puoi tu ..

Non è un mio problema l' incapacità di spiegare la rilevanza, scusa se ti ho creato confusione mentale
Con così poco...

Saluti troll


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[odiati75]

Non è un mio problema l' incapacità di spiegare la rilevanza, scusa se ti ho creato confusione mentale
Con così poco...

Saluti troll


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

irrilevante

[Amati75]

E come tante volte previsto e fattto presente:


Two years into the worst oil price rout in a generation, large and mid-sized U.S. independent producers are surviving and eyeing growth again as oil nears $50 a barrel, confounding OPEC and Saudi Arabia with their resiliency.
That shale giants Hess Corp (HES.N), Apache Corp (APA.N) and more than 25 other companies have beaten back OPEC's attempt to sideline them would have been unthinkable just months ago, when oil plumbed $26 a barrel and collapses were feared.
To regain market share, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in late 2014 pumped more oil despite growing global oversupply. It aimed to drive prices lower and force higher-cost producers out of the market, with shale oil seen as especially vulnerable.


The pain was acute. Industry revenue fell more than 30 percent in 2015 from the previous year, the U.S. drilling rig count dropped by more than 70 percent from when oil was still above $100 per barrel, stock valuations plunged and scores of small producers filed for bankruptcy.
But so far no U.S. producer that pumps more than 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) has gone bankrupt. The survival of these big producers partly explains why overall U.S. production has slipped only about 10 percent since peaking at 9.69 million bpd.
Their agility - which required slashing costs in half while doubling down on improved techniques to squeeze more oil from each new well - is now allowing the industry to cautiously focus on growth again.
But this time, U.S. producers say they will stay focused on capital returns, having abandoned a culture of maximizing production regardless of costs.
OPEC and Saudi Arabia "thought that there would be major capitulation and damage to U.S. shale producers as a result of the deep downturn," said Les Csorba, a leadership consultant at Heidrick & Struggles who works with shale executives. "But what happened was that it actually created a new paradigm among U.S. producers to transform their businesses."
Acquisition activity has picked up markedly in recent weeks, with Devon Energy Corp (DVN.N) finding buyers for more than $2 billion in non-core assets. The company is using part of that cash to boost its capital budget by $200 million.
WPX Energy Inc (WPX.N), which spent more on acquisitions last year than any U.S. oil company, sold 45 million new shares earlier this month, planning to use the funds to drill new Texas wells.
"We're a leaner organization than we were before the price crash," said Rick Muncrief, WPX's chief executive.
True, costs were slashed in the height of the price downturn when oil plumbed $26 per barrel in February and "there's a perception out there that if commodity prices go back up, you're going to lose those cost savings," Muncrief said.
But, he stressed, "that's simply not the case."
Industry consensus holds that costs for oilfield services - fracking and the like - may rise in tandem with oil prices, though high-tech advancements in sand, drilling and chemical technologies should stick around.
"Real progress for us has come on the cost side," said John Christmann, Apache's chief executive. "We plan to maintain a methodical approach to the cycle with a focus on returns."
U.S. oil prices CLc1 have recouped nearly half their losses from mid-2014 highs, almost doubling from the 13-year lows hit in February to reach over $51 in early June.
A year ago prices hit similar levels before plunging; oil executives are hoping past is not prologue.
"People are not necessarily freaking out anymore," said Sam Xu, an investment banker with CohnReznick Capital Market Securities LLC. "Instead of trying to keep their heads above the water, they're now trying to get back in the game."
To be sure, some executives say a bit more is needed - at least $60 a barrel - to ramp up drilling and fracking operations across most U.S. shale plays.
That attitude has been reflected in oil producers' capital budgets, which are still billions below 2015 levels.
Hess has long said it will add rigs in North Dakota when oil prices hit that mark, even though it is profitable in the state at $40.
"We need to see a period of stability in prices," Greg Hill, chief operating officer at Hess, said. "We need to make sure it's not quicksand."
Some oil companies aren't ready to even acknowledge the $50 milestone as relevant.
"We are head down and working and not ready to take any kind of victory lap," said Kristin Thomas, spokeswoman for Continental Resources Inc (CLR.N), North Dakota's second-largest oil producer.
Others are moving ahead in the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian, considered the cheapest and most-prolific U.S. shale oil fields.
"The Permian is set up for fairly explosive growth over the next several years," Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Co (PXD.N), said at a S&P Global Platts conference. Pioneer this week said it would increase its rig fleet by 40 percent.
Still, most producers are moving slowly.

"People are going to be waiting to see if this $50 price sticks around," said Muncrief, the WPX CEO.
With oil price near $50, resilient U.S. shale producers eye new chapter | Reuters

[Amati75]

Stanno iniziando a riaumentare il numero di rigs:

Weekly U.S. Oil Rig Count: Shale Is Back - The United States Oil ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:USO) | Seeking Alpha

Il concetto piu' volte spiegao del "factory floor" in piena luce.

[Amati75]

Altro miglioramento tecnologico nel settore dello Shale, diminuisce la "velocita" di sesaurimento dei giacimenti:


....While shale oil production revolutionized the oil industry over the past decade, bringing abundance of global oil supplies, high costs and rapid production declines have been its Achilles heel. That is beginning to change thanks to technological innovation and producers' focusing less on maximizing output and more on improving efficiency and productivity.According to data compiled and analyzed by oilfield analytics firm NavPort for Reuters, output from the average new well in the Permian Basin of West Texas, the top U.S. oilfield, declined 18 percent from peak production through the fourth month of its life in 2015. That is much slower than the 31 percent drop seen for the same time frame in 2012 and the 28 percent decline in 2013, when the oil price crash started.
The change was even more dramatic in North Dakota's Bakken shale, where four-month decline rates for new wells fell to 16 percent in 2015 from almost 31 percent in 2012. (Graphic:tmsnrt.rs/292ScGY)
A slower decline means producers need to drill fewer new wells to sustain output, said Mukul Sharma, professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Texas at Austin.
"You can have cash flow without having to expend a lot of capital."
The recent decline rates mark a dramatic improvement from first-year 90 percent declines in the early years of the shale boom that made some investors question the sector's long-run viability....

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shale-declinerates-idUSKCN0ZH3RQ


Si e' passati dal 90% iniziale al 31% del 2013, 28% 2013 al 18% attuale.

[Amati75]

Goldman: US Shale Supply Set To Ramp Up
Goldman Sachs is out with a new research note on the North American shale oil market this morning, and it’s depressing reading for oil bulls, sorry Andy Hall.
The investment bank expects US oil production growth to resume in 2017, following four quarters of sequential declines. Goldman’s oil and gas team expects US oil production to rise by nearly 600,000 to 700,000 barrels of oil per day between the fourth quarter of 2016 and fourth quarter of 2017 after declining by nearly 700,000 bpd between the fourth quarter 2015 and the fourth quarter of 2016. In other words, Goldman now expects that US oil production will reverse course and erase production declines reported over the past 12 months by the end of 2017.
What’s more, Goldman’s analysts believe that activity across the North American oil and gas industry, will return to peak levels by the end of 2017:
“We expect the US rig count to more than double between now (400) and the end of 2017 (to 909 vs. 2014 peak of 1,872) in order to achieve this growth. We see pressure pumping industry utilization rising to nearly 80% by 4Q17 (close to the 2014 peak of nearly 88%) from 35% currently on the back of this pick-up in activity. These developments are also positive for the frac sand industry, where we expect demand to grow by 80% in 2017 – the highest growth among all oil services sub-sectors.” — Goldman Sachs on the US shale sector
This view is at odds with the view from analysts at Raymond James who believe that US oil production will struggle to regain traction following nearly two years of attrition. Specifically, Raymond James’ figures predict that US crude production growth will amount to only 280,000 bpd during 2017, a forecast revised lower from 880,000 bpd (as predicted in January) due to the bottlenecks that have now formed in the US oil industry. These bottlenecks include the idea that; (1) service and E&P companies will initially choose to divert some cash flows towards balance sheet repair rather than maximizing growth; (2) it will be difficult to recruit enough workers to fill the gaps left by the massive layoffs over the past two years; (3) equipment shortages due to cannibalisation and attrition that has been forced on the industry as it struggles to cope with low oil prices.


US Shale: Surprisingly resilient

Unsurprisingly, Goldman doesn’t hold the same view. When it comes to the labour shortage, Goldman’s calculations show that the oil and gas industry would need an extra 80,000 to 100,000 people between now and the end of 2018 to reach its ramp up forecast. 170,000 workers have been laid off since the beginning of the downturn, and many of these are still looking for work. While it is true that the labour conditions throughout the United States have improved significantly since the beginning of the downturn, in most oil producing states Goldman’s analysts believe that hiring needs are only about 8% to 11% of the pool of unemployed. Also, companies appear to have been strategic about the layoff process, retaining the most experienced personnel in lower-level positions. As the ramp up gains traction, these workers will be brought back into the field to be replaced by less skilled workers in admin roles.


When it comes to the topic of equipment shortages and the cannibalization of equipment Goldman presents drilling rig figures, which show that land rig utilisation currently stands at 14% in total. 29% of the best in class rigs are still in service. All in all, 500 high spec rigs are still idle, and it is estimated that only 400 horizontal rigs will be needed by year-end 2017 to reach production targets.
Furthermore, Goldman claims that 120 to 150 stacked rigs could be brought back online relatively quickly, with little in the way of capital spending as the majority of these rigs have been stacked over the past six months and remain in relatively good condition. Goldman only sees bottlenecks in the supply chain developing if shale ramp up occurs faster than the base case forecasts (still a doubling of active rigs between now and the end of 2017).


Still, Goldman does concede that oil service providers could be lying about the condition of their equipment and the level of cannibalisation. There is also a note highlighting the fact that workers could be deterred from re-entering the industry due to its cyclical nature.
So, this forecast may not play out exactly as intended.

Goldman: US Shale Supply Set To Ramp Up - ValueWalk

[Amati75]

In World Of $50 Oil, Shale Beats Deepwater

U.S. shale is the lowest cost option for new oil production and is likely to be more competitive than conventional offshore drilling, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie.
The U.S. shale industry has weathered the oil price downturn, tweaking drilling practices and cutting costs in order to stay in business. A new report from Wood Mackenzie finds that the industry is proving to be resilient and flexible in the face of the worst oil market crisis in three decades.
The report concludes that U.S. shale companies have managed to cut costs by as much as 40 percent since 2014. Much of that comes from lower costs from equipment suppliers and oilfield services firms. But it also comes from improved productivity from the average shale well. Instead of drilling anywhere and everywhere, U.S. shale companies are getting better at finding the “sweet spots.”
Intriguingly, the report finds that conventional oil drillers have not had as much success in reducing costs. Non-shale drilling projects only achieved cost reductions on the order of 10 to 12 percent, Wood Mackenzie found. That means that a lot of large oil projects are not economical with oil prices at $60 per barrel.
By comparison, the Eagle Ford has an average breakeven price of $48 per barrel for Brent, and the Wolfcamp in the Permian Basin has a breakeven price of just $39 per barrel.
In other words, America’s shale industry is now more competitive than places like the North Sea, West Africa or other deepwater drilling areas, places that have seen high levels of interest and investment for a much longer period of time. “There are more opportunities to invest in the U.S., and that’s where the investment will take place,” Simon Flowers of Wood Mackenzie said.Related: EIA Reports 2.5M Barrel Draw To U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
Wood Mackenzie found that 60 percent of the oil production that is profitable with oil at $60 per barrel comes in the form of shale production, compared to only 20 percent that is deep water.
As a result, the number of megaprojects that have been given final investment decisions has dropped off a cliff recently. Between 2007 and 2013 the global oil industry greenlit 40 large projects per year. But that figure fell to just eight in 2015 as large projects became unviable with oil prices less than half of what they were in 2014. A Wood Mackenzie estimate from earlier this year found that the industry has put off investment decisions on about 68 major projects across the globe, deferring some $380 billion in investment.
In short, future investment dollars will increasingly find their way into U.S. shale at the expense of deepwater. This backs up recent data from other outlets, such as Rystad Energy, which a few weeks ago released data showing much greater interest in smaller, short-cycle drilling projects as opposed to the megaprojects of the past. Shale is comparatively lower risk, as giant oil projects require years of investment and billions of dollars while they also tend to suffer from cost overruns and frequent delays.
But not all shale drillers are made the same. Low oil prices have forced the default rate for U.S. shale drillers to a record high, according to Fitch Ratings. Fitch says that almost one in three oil producers in the U.S. that used high-risk debt to finance their drilling frenzy have now defaulted on a combined $29 billion in debt. By the end of the year, the defaults could encompass $40 billion in debt. In the five years before oil prices started to crash in 2014, the shale industry took on $500 billion in risky debt, The Houston Chronicle reports. Related: Can OPEC Supply The Tighter Oil Market It Predicts?
The result is a major shake out in the industry. The exact tally is a little murky, but at least 130 North American oil and gas companies have declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy since the beginning of 2015, a number that is surely set to rise as oil prices fall back from $50 per barrel.
And the outlook for oil prices is not exactly bright. The market has been oversupplied for quite some time, and while supplies have retreated, demand is now suddenly looking not quite as robust as many had thought. Chinese demand continues to show signs of weakness. And as the IEA noted in its latest Oil Market Report, exceptionally high volumes of gasoline sitting in storage is dragging down oil prices.
"It doesn't look as though we'll put much of a dent in global (oil) inventories until the second half of 2017," Tim Evans, energy futures specialist at Citigroup, told Reuters in an interview. "The market is making considerable progress relative to the surplus of the past two years, but it's going to take more time to bring inventories back down to more normal levels.”

In World Of $50 Oil, Shale Beats Deepwater | OilPrice.com

[Amati75]

America’s Shale Gas Is Heading to the Far East for First Time


The Far East, which imports more liquefied natural gas than any other region of the world, is preparing to receive its first supplies from America’s shale bounty.
A tanker that loaded liquefied natural gas at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s export terminal in Louisiana is bound for the Far East, according to an official at tanker owner Maran Gas Maritime Inc. who asked not to be identified because he isn’t authorized by the company to speak on the record. The company that chartered the vessel, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, has yet to say exactly which country and buyer will receive the cargo, he said
America?s Shale Gas Is Heading to the Far East for First Time - Bloomberg

[blobb]

America’s Shale Gas Is Heading to the Far East for First Time



The Far East, which imports more liquefied natural gas than any other region of the world, is preparing to receive its first supplies from America’s shale bounty.
A tanker that loaded liquefied natural gas at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s export terminal in Louisiana is bound for the Far East, according to an official at tanker owner Maran Gas Maritime Inc. who asked not to be identified because he isn’t authorized by the company to speak on the record. The company that chartered the vessel, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, has yet to say exactly which country and buyer will receive the cargo, he said
America?s Shale Gas Is Heading to the Far East for First Time - Bloomberg

cavolo una nave piena di gas verso l'estremo oriente .....
una vera rivoluzione... quante ce ne stanno in viaggio in giro per il mondo attualmente??

[Amati75]

cavolo una nave piena di gas verso l'estremo oriente .....
una vera rivoluzione... quante ce ne stanno in viaggio in giro per il mondo attualmente??

Tu si che capisci sempre tutto...
Fra un paio di anni ci arriverai.

Questa è la PRIMA spedizione, mica prima ed ultima.

A volte per voler dare contro, dai delle risposte che fanno, letteralmente, cadere le braccia.

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