da haaretz:


Friday, April 12, 2002 Nisan 30, 5762 Israel Time: 17:47 (GMT+3)





Israel to U.S.: Don't wait for calm here before hitting Iraq

Powell arrives amid low expectations

By Yossi Verter and Aluf Benn




Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu last night told the U.S. administration not to wait until there is calm in the territories before going ahead with its planned attack on Iraq.

Netanyahu apparently spoke to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon before going to the White House to meet with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. He also briefed the prime minister at the meeting's end.

Cheney and Rice had requested the meeting.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell arrived in Israel last night. Just before his arrival, the U.S. proposed to Israel that a third party - apparently the British - take custody of the wanted men in the Church of the Nativity and in Ramallah's besieged Palestinian Authority compound and hold them in the Palestinian areas.

Sharon agreed - as long as they are put on trial in Israel.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair has agreed to send the appropriate men for the job and to oversee the arrest and imprisonment of the suspects.

In the Prime Minister's Office and the Defense Ministry, officials had low expectations yesterday from Powell's visit, which will consist of a shuttle between Sharon and Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat. Powell is to meet with the "expanded kitchenette" this morning, then with Sharon, followed by meetings with Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and Defense Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer. The meeting with the ministerial plenum, where the right holds sway, is meant to present the American foreign policy chief with Israel's hard-line views.

Tomorrow, Powell goes to Ramallah to meet with Arafat. Tomorrow night will be what Israeli officials are calling "the critical meeting," with Sharon again, where Powell is expected to report back to the Israeli prime minister on what he achieved in his meeting with the Palestinian leadership.

Israel expects Powell will try to tailor a deal that includes an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank towns and cities, in exchange for another Arafat declaration of a cease-fire and possibly his agreement to a security plan worked out by U.S. cease-fire envoy Anthony Zinni. But there is little optimism in Jerusalem that the plan will work.

Sharon is expected to propose a series of mutual steps, with staged Israeli withdrawals in exchange for Palestinian action against terrorists. Sharon is also expected to bow to American pressure and agree to advance political negotiations alongside security steps, starting with the entry to the Mitchell Report recommendations immediately after the steps for the cease-fire. Previously, Sharon refused to consider political talks until the full implementation of both the Tenet work plan and the Mitchell recommendations, which include some initial political steps, like a settlement freeze and confidence-building measures.

Powell will try to persuade Sharon to agree to an immediate withdrawal, to test Arafat one more time. If Arafat fails, the U.S. will lose patience and take steps against the Palestinian leader.

But Arafat is not seen as eager to declare a cease-fire. His aides told Zinni on Wednesday that an Israeli withdrawal is a precondition to a cease-fire, and that a "political package" must be integrated with the security steps. They also complained that the Zinni security plan distorts the original Tenet plan.

Diplomats who have visited Arafat in the besieged compound say that despite the difficult physical conditions - no running water and limited food supplies, for example - he is in good spirits. He is kept informed by writing, since cellular phones have ceased functioning inside the building, possibly due to Israeli jamming.

Israeli and foreign sources say that in the best case, Arafat will declare a cease-fire and the level of terror will decline. In the worst case, the IDF will withdraw from the cities, and be replaced by local leaders and security officials. The Hamas and Islamic Jihad are seen as having been weakened and will not be able to replace the much weakened PA. The U.S. is very worried by the destruction of the PA's security apparatus and the need for it to be rebuilt.

Powell has arrived with a broad mandate from President George W. Bush, but it is still not clear what he plans to propose. His conversations with Arab leaders over the past week have convinced him there's no point to discussing replacing Arafat. His ideas have been formulated during his journey, which began on Sunday.

Sources close to the American administration say that the U.S. is putting together a "minimal political package" that Washington believes Sharon can accept. There are four points to the plan:

* A regional peace conference (Madrid 2), and construction of a regional mechanism for implementation of the Saudi initiative, with a permanent secretariat. The resumption of the multi-lateral talks is also being considered.

* A Palestinian state, which Sharon has already agreed to.

* A long-term interim period, as Sharon has suggested. The Americans are examining a proposal for a further Israeli withdrawal that would expand the PA by 50 percent in the West Bank and a full withdrawal from Gaza. UN envoy Terje Larsen is trying to advance that idea.

* Movement toward a permanent agreement, but without a timetable, which Sharon vehemently opposes. The "Madrid Statement" that Powell formulated with the UN, EU and Russia on his way here, calls for "defined steps" to end the occupation and the conflict, but does not include a timetable.

But there is skepticism that Powell can get that far, so his visit will focus on one issue alone: how to get Arafat out of the Israeli isolation in Ramallah. The Palestinians will present that as a major obstacle to an effective cease-fire, and will seek pressure on Sharon. They may have reason for optimism. Sharon strained relations with Washington by refusing to comply with President Bush's public calls for an immediate withdrawal. American officials say that a change in American policy, including pressure on Israel, derives from fear that Operation Defensive Shield was in effect, an Israeli reoccupation of the territories, and not simply an anti-terror operation.