President Barack Obama is making major changes to plans started by his predecessor to establish ballistic missile defenses in Europe, and they will have major ramifications for interceptor makers Boeing and Raytheon.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates and the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, USMC Gen. James Cartwright, say findings of a congressionally mandated review of missile defense - as well as adjustments in the intelligence assessment of the missile threat from Iran - underpin the changes.
Ten two-stage, silo-based Ground-Based Interceptors (GBI) that were to be placed in Poland and a long-range tracking radar bound for the Czech Republic – a plan pushed by President George W. Bush and endorsed by Gates in 2006 -- will be scrapped. This posture assumed that Iran would have a few intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) capable of reaching Europe or, eventually, the United States around 2015. However, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) are proliferating at an alarming pace, prompting the restructuring, the officials told Pentagon reporters this morning. Of particular worry is the “raid” threat that hundreds of these missiles would be launched at once.
“We built the original system on the idea of a rogue nation threat – three to five missiles that could come from either North Korea or Iran. The reality is we are dealing with hundreds of missiles in the IRBM and medium range capabilities,” Cartwright says. “What you can do with an SM-3 in affordability and in deployment and in dispersal is substantially greater for a larger group of [threat] missiles than what we have with the Ground-Based Interceptor.”
The new plan has four phases, the first to be fielded in 2011. It is a mix of Patriot and PAC-3 terminal defenses as well as ship-based SM-3 Block IAs made by Raytheon and deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean and other areas around Europe.
Phase two in 2015, will incorporate land-based and ship-based SM-3 Block IBs (with an improved seeker and divert and attitude control system) and airborne sensors, Cartwright says. Poland and the Czech Republic are among the top candidates to house the relocatable land-based system. The U.S. Missile Defense Agency already has begun to experiment with infrared sensors on unmanned aerial vehicles as a facet of its sensor network.
In 2018, the land- and sea-based SM-3 Block IIA, which adds more range with a 21-in. booster (over the IA and IB’s 14-in. motor), will lead the third phase. This significantly increases range, and Cartwright says up to three sites would be required to protect Europe.
Finally, in 2020, phase four will include a new and yet-to-be described SM-3 Block IIB, which Cartwright says will counter an ICBM from Iran.
The shifting threat and the cost underpin the decision, according to Cartwright, who has telegraphed such changes since the start of the year. A single GBI costs about $70 million, with each SM-3 Block IA at about $10 million and the IB at up to $15 million.
Michèle Flournoy, U.S. under secretary of defense for policy, is in Prague and Warsaw now to address their concerns. Delay in ratification of the GBI sites contributed to slippage to as late as 2018 for those interceptors. Gates and Cartwright emphasize that the land-based SM-3 is a candidate for both nations.
Some observers assert that a desire by the Obama administration to placate Russia, which had strongly objected to the GBI plan, is at the root of the shift. Gates says the SM-3 missiles should be viewed as less threatening to Moscow, though he said claims that GBIs could be tipped with nuclear payloads were “unfounded.” Furthermore, the planned deployable X-based radar, which will likely be placed in the Caucasus region, will only be able to focus at the threat area alone. The system proposed with the GBI could have peered into Russia.
Reaction from Congress was swift and generally along party lines. Republicans object, citing possible insult to Europe and an over-eagerness to please Russia. Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) says the shift is “shortsighted” and leaves the United States vulnerable.
“It shows a willful determination to continue ignoring the threat posed by some of the most dangerous regimes in the world, while taking one of the most important defenses against Iran off the table,” echoes Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio), the House minority leader.
Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, says the new approach will “focus our resources where they will do the most good.”
And his Senate counterpart went further, countering Republican accusations. “President Obama has made a sound choice that will improve our security,” said Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich.).
He noted Polish and Czech hesitations over the previous plans and said the new vision would still provide widespread protection. Poland also is being offered a Patriot battery - which he says was their first priority - and SM-3s for deployment on their soil. “This decision reinforces our security commitment to our European allies; it does not weaken it,” Levin claims.