Italy Outlook Revised to Negative Due to Weak Fiscal Accounts; Teleconf. Jan. 17 at 2 pm GMT
Analyst:
Moritz Kraemer, London (44) 20-7847-7114; Luc Marchand, London (44) 20-7847-7111
Publication date: 15-Jan-03, 136:48 EST
Reprinted from RatingsDirect
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 15, 2003--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today it revised its outlook on the Republic of Italy to negative from stable, reflecting the persistence of large structural fiscal deficits and the lack of a well-defined medium-term fiscal strategy, which will lead to a notable deceleration in the decrease of the government's debt ratio. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'AA' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term credit ratings on the Republic.
"The negative outlook reflects the dominance of downside risks to Italy's debt dynamics," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Moritz Kraemer. "Complacency about fiscal developments and failure to address budgetary imbalances with lasting structural measures could lead to a lowering of the ratings within one to two years. Conversely, the outlook would be revised to stable if sustainable budgetary improvements were achieved, leading to a return of the structural primary surplus toward the levels of the late 1990s."
The government's medium-term fiscal strategy relies on optimistic growth projections of about 3% per year, and very sizable, but so far undefined, adjustments to current spending (excluding interest and capital investment), so as to bring down the fiscal deficit while allowing for comprehensive tax cuts.
"The 2004 budget will be a crucial inflection point, as the government has committed itself to bringing about a fiscal adjustment of about 2% of GDP," added Mr. Kraemer. "This is required in order to replace onetime revenues, which will account for approximately 1% of GDP in 2003, while pushing the deficit below 1% of GDP. If further tax cuts were to be legislated, the adjustment burden would be even higher."
To date, no official strategy has been unveiled on how to achieve these adjustments in 2004 and beyond. Standard & Poor's considers that the official goal of achieving budgetary balance in 2006 is increasingly unattainable without a pronounced change in policy orientation. The 2002 deficit missed the original target of 0.5% of GDP by a substantial margin, coming in at 2.3%, or 3.1% using Standard & Poor's adjusted definition, which excludes onetime revenues. The adjusted deficit is expected to remain around 3% of GDP every year until 2006.
The Italian authorities have over recent years increased their dependence on onetime revenues to cover recurrent spending items. This is progressively putting a structural and sustainable consolidation of Italy's public finances in jeopardy. The credibility of government projections, which foresee a return to primary surpluses of about 5% of GDP from 2004 onward, is weakened by the unsustainable nature and uneven quality of the measures implemented so far, and the lack of detail surrounding future measures. Instead, Standard & Poor's expects that primary surpluses will remain at levels substantially lower than previously anticipated. If the government were to follow through on announced tax cuts, the structural fiscal weakening would be further accentuated.
As a result of the substantial downside risk to the fiscal balance performance, the decline in Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio might proceed more slowly than previously expected. At an estimated 106% of GDP in 2003, Italy's debt is still nearly twice as high as the 'AA' median (55%). Indeed, without a debt swap with the central bank in December, the debt ratio would have increased in 2002 for the first time in almost a decade.
"Persistently large financial operations below the line are further hampering the downward trend of public debt," added Mr. Kraemer. "Whereas the government projects that general government debt will fall to 96% of GDP by 2006, Standard & Poor's believes that this ratio will not decline below 103%. Further tax cuts without prior rigorous expenditure control could lead to even more adverse debt dynamics."
Standard & Poor's will hold a telephone conference call on Friday Jan. 17, 2003, at 2:00 p.m. GMT (3:00 p.m. ECT, 9:00 a.m. EST), to discuss the ratings on the Republic of Italy and Italian local and regional governments.