fantastoria - 1946: vittoria dell'Asse.

[Felix (POL)]

as if... si parte dall'ipotesi che lo sbarco in Normandia fallisce nel 1944. La Germania di Hitler vince la guerra... quale scenario si apre per l'europa, con una vittoria tedesca invece che russo-angloamericana?!

la mappa dell'europa con Hitler vincitore:


What Price Defeat?
A HISTORY OF EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA IF THE ALLIED INVASION OF NORMANDY HAD FAILED

Copyright © 1996-2002 Stephen Abbott

"You can't exaggerate it. You can't overstate it. [D-Day] was the pivot point of the 20th century. It was the day on which the decision was made as to who was going to rule in this world in the second half of the 20th century. Is it going to be Nazism, is it going to be communism, or are the democracies going to prevail? If we would have failed on Omaha Beach and on the other beaches on the 6th of June in 1944, the struggle for Europe would have been a struggle between Hitler and Stalin, and we would have been out of it."
- Historian Stephen Ambrose, Author of "D-Day, June 6, 1944" in a 1994 C-Span interview


Prologue: Defeat

The invasion of Normandy, France was the beginning of the final chapter of Hitler's Germany. Ignoring early calls to counter the invasion quickly, Hitler's generals refused to wake him in the early hours of the morning of June 6, 1944. When he awoke, he was convinced that the invasion was a mere prelude or decoy for a real invasion, which would occur at a later time, he theorized, further to the north, near Calais. He therefore took no action, starting a chain of events that caused Germany to continue fighting a massive two-front war, thus leading to a rapid and catastrophic defeat.
If Hitler had been awakened, if he had responded quickly and forcefully to the attack, everything may have been different. Everything.

Come with me now and visit the aftermath of just one vision of what might have happened.

Part I: Defeat and Consequenses

6 Jun. 1944 -At 0500 hours, German intelligence reports massive enemy movements along the Normandy coast to generals in the field, especially Field Marshall Gerd von Rundstedt. After being rebuffed by other generals who believed it to be a mere diversionary tactic, von Rundstedt summons the courage to personally wake Hitler at 0530 and within the hour, convinces him that this is the real invasion, rather than a diversion.

- By 0630, Hitler had ordered a swift reinforcement of troops on the Normandy coast, surprising Allied invaders by 0800.
- Bt 1100 hours that morning, the D-Day invasion had begun to falter, and by 1300, it had clearly begun to fail, with the Allies being pushed back to the sea by 50,000 German reinforcements. The air remained relatively allied-controlled, however, until heavy German anti-aircraft guns were moved into place in the late afternoon.

- By 1430, thousands of ships begin to limp into British harbours.

- By 1800, the beach was again German-held.

7 Jun. 1944 Morning papers call it "Dunkirk II" and a debacle (though, like Dunkirk, most of the Allied troops have escaped with their lives, though much heavy equipment has been abandoned on the beaches.)
- 0900 General Eisenhower issues this statement to the press (which he has already sent to Roosevelt and other military leaders in the US and allied nations) - "Our landings in the Cherbourg Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have withdrawn the troops. My decision to attack at this time and place was based upon the best information available. The troops, the air and the Navy did all that Bravery and devotion to duty could do. If any blame or fault attaches to the attempt it is mine alone."(see Note)
8 Jun. 1944 0900. Hitler secretly contacts the British government, offering "An Honourable peace" , but Churchill angrily returns a one-word answer, "Never".
9 Jun. 1944 - 1330, Hitler, after extensive meetings with all his military advisors, orders plans for a massive bombardment of the British coastline.

10 Jun. 1944 Word of Hitler's peace proposal leaks out of Downing St. to the British press. Many in the House of Commons call for an end to the war, and condemn Churchill.

12-15 Jun. There is an air assault along the coast of England by German Luftwaffe squadrons, 1900. Some losses of British planes are reported, but the cost to the Luftwaffe is also heavy.

16 Jun. 1944 Calls for Churchill's resignation, and an end to the war, are voiced strongly in Parliament. Churchill is advised by his cabinet to take full responsibility for the failure.

17 Jun. 1944. 0930. Churchill resigns, replaced by Lord Halifax, who says in Parliament, "We must find an honourable peace with Germany that allows our two systems to co-exist." Thus, the policy of peaceful co-existence with Germany was first established.

17 Jun. 1944 1530. Halifax is contacted by German officials, intent on securing peace. In a hastily-drawn-up agreement, they agree on an immediate cessation of hostilities, an acceptance of current borders of Britain and the British Empire, and no reparations to be paid by either side for damages incurred during the war.

18 Jun. 1944 0400. Under a flag of truce, German and American officers meet in a northern Italian town to discuss terms for a truce. President Roosevelt radios his approval, and sets conditions for peace as the withdrawal of German troops from Italian borders and the capture and arrest of Mussolini, as well as a pledge not to interfere with the post-war government of Italy. The message is relayed to Berlin. General Eisenhower leaves Britain for the talks.

19 Jun. 1944 0515. At a second meeting between German and American generals in northern Italy, the Germans reject the call for Mussolini's arrest and handover, but agree to leave Italy under American occupation. A third meeting is planned, at which high-ranking generals will negotiate an armistice.

- 1030. In a secret communique, Roosevelt tells frontline generals in Italy to secure the retreat of German Troops to Italy's pre-war borders. He tells them that America intends to hold Italy by military force, if necessary.
20 Jun. 1944 1800. German officials land at an airstrip near London for peace talks.
21 Jun. 1944 1200. A formal armistice between Germany and England is signed, reflecting the outlines of the agreement of 17 June, adding the stipulation that all troops hostile to the German Empire should leave Britain's soil at once.

- 1545. Halifax notifies American troops of the agreement's new stipulation, and ask for a withdrawal within 90 days. American officials ask for an extention to 120 days, citing the logistics of moving equipment.
- 1750. After consultation with German officials, Halifax agrees to the extention.

22 Jun. 1944 1530. General Eisenhower and several German generals meet in Milan to sign a formal truce. The terms state that Germany will leave Italian soil, and will not try to influence or overthrow the post-war Italian government. It also guarantees Germany's non-interference with free trade between England, Italy and North America, and allows each ally to make a separate peace with Japan or continue the war in the Pacific, as it sees fit.
23 Jun. 1944 1230. Churchill and his family leave England for an extended visit to Canada, and would not return for several years.

- 1600. President Roosevelt announces, in a radio address to the nation, the truce with Germany and the end of the European theater of the war. "To fight on further," Roosevelt says, "would be to throw life away for little results." Roosevelt goes on to say that the war with Japan will continue and must be won, "Now more than ever." to preserve the American way of life.
- 1845. Upon hearing of the agreement, a furious Benito Mussolini accuses Hitler of treachery and betrayal, and is arrested by German authorities and taken to Innsbruck, where he is held in custody.

24 Jun. 1944 British Fascist leader Sir Oswald Mosley announces that he is re-forming his "British Union of Fascists", now called the "British Union Party", and will contest the next parliamentary elections.
25 Jun. 1944 After the weekend revelation of the deal with Germany to expel Americans from Britain, Halifax narrowly survives a no confidence vote in parliament. To mollify the war hawks in his cabinet, he announces "There will be no separate peace with Japan."

26 Jun. 1944. Hitler re-assigns 300,000 German troops from France and Southern Germany (Austria) to eastern Europe and northeastern Germany to confront the Russian onslaught.

29 Jun. 1944 In America, the Republican National convention convenes. After only two ballots, it nominates (6/30) Thomas E. Dewey as their Presidential standard-bearer, with Governor John Bricker as Vice-President. Bricker is an isolationist and a conservative. Balloting, on the fifth ballot, was: Dewey, 649; Warren, 235, Bricker, 172.

30 Jun. 1944 While supervising the withdrawal of troops from England, General Eisenhower is relieved of command, and ordered to report to Washington for debriefing.

4 July 1944 In Philadelphia, in front of Independence Hall, famous aviator Charles Lindbergh announces the formation of the America First Party, and announces his candidacy for the presidency as the nominee of that party. He denounces Roosevelt, calling "his war against Europe" a failure.

7 July 1944 1600. King George VI addresses the British Empire, calling for calm, cooperation and for the return to peace after "a great national ordeal".

11 July 1944 President Roosevelt announces that he will not seek reelection to a fourth term. Vice-president Wallace says that he would accept the Democratic Party s nomination.

24 July 1944 On the fortieth ballot, Democrats nominate Henry Wallace as their nominee for President. Final tally: Wallace, 782; Senator Henry F. Byrd, 243; Roosevelt, 154 (5 votes for Senator Harry Truman of Missouri).

10 Aug. 1944 1145. President Roosevelt suffers a stroke. 1315. Vice President Wallace assumes the daily duties of the Presidency.

6 Sept 1944 Charles Lindbergh is nominated as the America First Party's candidate for President at it's first nominating convention in Philadelphia. Burton K. Wheeler, (formerly) Democratic Senator from Montana, was nominated as the party's Vice-Presidential candidate.

11 Sept. 1944 U.S. forces land on Leyte in the Philippines.

23 Sept. 1944 The Canadian government announces closer economic ties with the United States, and an agreement is signed by Prime Minister W.L. Mackenzie King and Vice-President Wallace.

9 Oct. 1944 Vice-President Wallace is denounced as a Communist in the press after he suggests to a reporter, in answer to a question, that after Japan is defeated the U.S. should reenter the European war to "save the U.S.S.R."

20 Oct. 1944 Warsaw is retaken by German forces.

7 Nov. 1944 Lindbergh's America First party wins in a tight race: Lindbergh, (America 1st) 19,500,000 (296 E.V.); Dewey (R) 18,600,000 (185 E.V.); Wallace (D) 9,800,000 (50 E.V.). Also elected are 125 House members and 15 Senators of both parties who had pledged to work with Lindbergh.

11 Nov. 1944 Russian forces are driven from the easternmost part of German Austria.

20 Jan 1945 1200. Charles Lindbergh is sworn in as President, offering "a renewal of the American Spirit" , an end to "New Deal Socialism" and the triumph of the American way of life. He urged the nation to unite to defeat Japan.

1 Feb. 1945 1500. U.S. forces raise the flag over Iwo Jima

22 Mar. 1945 Kiev retaken by German forces

28 Apr. 1945 0345. In his cell in Innsbruck, Germany, former Italian Leader Mussolini commits suicide, despondent about his incarceration.

6 May 1945 In a Rose Garden ceremony, 15 Senators, 9 Republicans, 6 Democrats, change to the America First Party, joined by 49 House members (32 Republicans/17 Democrats).

1 July 1945 0800. The first atomic bomb dropped by the U.S. on Nagasaki.

3 July 1945 In Canada, Fascist-oriented "National Unity Party" leader Adrien Arcand is released from prison, where he had been kept under arrest and his party banned during the war for suspicion to commit treason. Arcand vowed to contest future elections.

5 July 1945 1245. The second atomic bomb dropped by the U.S. 20 miles north of Tokyo.

7 July 1945 1515. Japan announces surrender to the U.S.

10-22 July U.S. troops begin to occupy Japan.

16 July 1945 Leningrad falls to German and Finnish forces.

15 Aug. 1945 General MacArthur becomes the Military Governor of Japan, serving until 1952.

26 Aug. 1945 Stalin and the politburo evacuate Moscow.

28 Aug. 1945 Moscow falls to German armies.

29 Aug. 1945 Stalin is killed in a coup in the Siberian town of Novosibirsk.

31 Aug. 1945 The new Russian government, the "Russian Council of State", surrenders to German generals in Moscow and announce the banning of Communism in Russia and a "Perpetual Union of friendship to the liberators of Russia from Communist oppression."

7 Oct. 1945 President Lindbergh authorizes the arming of the Chinese Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek.

Part II: The Rightists Victorious

11 Feb. 1945 Congress establishes a ten member D-Day Commission to investigate the failure of D-Day and Eisenhower's role.

22 Mar 1946 President Lindbergh calls the union movement "a cover" for surviving Communists and decrees all unions to be disbanded, as a threat to national security, making any union activities tantamount to treason.

25 Mar 1946 Hitler announces the "Rebirth of Berlin", a massive reconstruction effort headed by Minister of Interior (and newly-appointed Prime Minister) Albert Speer.

10 April 1946. In Canadian by-elections, the National Unity Party wins 10 seats in the House of Commons, mainly from Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces.

6 May 1946 President Lindbergh's Secretary of War, General Robert E. Wood, calls for the creation of a "Home Guard", with military units on call in each community to "Defend America in the event of any future attack from a hostile force."

18 May 1946 In a 7-to-3 vote, General Eisenhower is found not guilty of incompetence for the D-Day failure by the D-Day Commission. (Though many in Congress and the nation hold Eisenhower responsible for the failure at Normandy, saying that he "put all of his eggs in one basket") After the hearings, on the steps of the Capitol building, he announces that he will resign his commission and retire from the army within a week.

4 July 1946 The Philippine occupation ends after the first elections to a new Congress, dominated by the U.S.-friendly Philippine Nationalist Party.

8 July 1946 German military officials make their secret contact with Indian Nationalists, offering military aid and a secret alliance. Indian troops had already served in the SS during the war, and vow to continue working with German forces.

11 July 1946. Hitler calls for a conference of all "European States" to join him in Berlin to form a "Continental Pact", uniting all of Europe in one political and economic body.

17 Aug. 1946 1145. Hitler calls the "Conference of European States" to order in Berlin.

8 Sept. 1946 Congress votes to create "Home Guards" in each community in America. Mobilisation is almost immediate, with former WWII soldiers being required to register by mid-October with local draft boards.

1 Oct. 1946 The "Continental Pact" is signed by Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Holland, Belgium, France, Spain, Switzerland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, The General Government of Poland, Rumania, Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Albania, the ReichKommissariat of Ukraine, the ReichKommissariat of Ostland (the Baltic Nations), and the Russian State. (View a map and some flags of Europe after the Continental Pact)

6 Nov. 1946 The America First Party wins 136 seats in the House of Representatives in mid-term elections, and gains 10 seats in the Senate.

3 Mar 1947 Former vice-president Wallace announces the formation of the Progressive Social Party, and his candidacy for President in 1948.

15 Aug. 194

http://users.metro2000.net/~stabbott/AH1944b.htm

[Elrond]

Più che fantastoria questo è un lieto fine che , ahimè, non si è avverato!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!

[marcejap]

Tra tutti i possibili scenari fantastorici, questo mi sembra quello più altamente improbabile. Una vittoria dell'asse era possibile in due casi:
1 - Totale sfondamento della Wermacht all'est (e formazione di due blocchi mondiali: gli Usa e la Germania).
2 - Leone Marino invece del Barbarossa. In quel caso si sarebbe veramente creata un'Europa unita ed il mondo si sarebbe diviso in 3 blocchi: i nazi, i comunisti e gli yankee.

Se i tedeschi avessero ributtato a mare gli alleati nel '44, in Normandia ci sarebbe arrivata l'Armata Rossa...

[Felix (POL)]

concordo, non sarebbe bastato ributtare a mare gli yankees nel '44 per capovolgere le sorti della guerra. Rimaneva un forte dislivello in termini di risorse materiali e capacità industriale tra l'Asse (diviso tra Germania-Europa e Giappone) e gli alleati. La spinta dell'URSS ad est era fortissima, anche per via degli aiuti angloamericani, ed in conseguenza dei noti errori strategici del piano Barbarossa.

saluti

[DrugoLebowsky]

cmq secondo me la cartina è inesatta proprio per i confini E dell'Italia. Lubiana, se non ricordo male, fu "ceduta" all'Asse, insieme al Trentino e parte di Veneto e Friuli, nel 1943.
Sempre nello stesso anno, il Governatorato Generale passò al Reich.

[Felix (POL)]

è vero. L'Italia nel 1943 era già sconfitta sia che vincesse la Germania sia che vincessero i russo-anglo-americani. Hitler vincitore si sarebbe non solo preso i territori citati, ma avrebbe praticamente ridotto l'Italia ad uno stato satellite. In questo scenario, gli obiettivi della guerra intrapresa nel 1940 erano sfumati completamente.

Resta da vedere se fosse stato meglio divenire satelliti della Germania o, come in effetti avvenne, degli USA. La questione deve combinarsi con l'ipotesi di una morte di Hitler verso gli anni '50-'60 e quindi una graduale democratizzazione del regime nazionalsocialista germanico, così come avvenne in Spagna con Franco anche prima della morte del caudillo.
Ma se moltiplichiamo tanto i fattori ipotetici e le concatenazioni causali che ne deriverebbero, rischiamo di perderci in una variabilità quasi infinita di possibilità, che toglierebbe ogni senso allo stesso itinerario virtuale tra i "se" della Storia.

saluti

[agaragar]

Mai lette tante sciocchezze, lo sbarco in Normandia non avrebbe mai potuto fallire tanta era la sproporzione delle forze, esso fu in effetti una passeggiata,
col TOTALE dominio dell'aria(e la carenza di carburante in germania) i tedeschi non potevano comunque ammassare le poche truppe disponibili all'ovest, e la russia ,al giugno 44 era quasi totalmente liberata.
Un invasione del continente sarebbe tranquillamente riuscita anche nel 43, e magari anche nel 42,
addirittura,se si fossero impegnati realmente, i britannici,che avevano ancora la marina + grande del mondo, oltre 10 volte quella tedesca, sarebbero potuti sbarcare nel 41 prima dell'intervento degli usa, tutto l'impero britannico contro 50 mediocri divisioni tedesche.

Gli alleati erano poi già presenti sul continente dal settembre 43, diversi generali americani sostennero che un ulteriore sbarco sul continente era inutile, potendosi raggiungere la piana di lubiana attraverso l'italia.

Unica chance per il reich sarebbe stato il crollo della russia nell'inverno 41, crollo che non ci fù, a crollare fu solo la "democrazia" francese l'anno prima,
questo la dice lunga sui benefici effetti dello stalinismo sulla fibra nazionale russa.

[marcejap]

Originally posted by Pasquin0
Mai lette tante sciocchezze, lo sbarco in Normandia non avrebbe mai potuto fallire tanta era la sproporzione delle forze, esso fu in effetti una passeggiata,
col TOTALE dominio dell'aria(e la carenza di carburante in germania) i tedeschi non potevano comunque ammassare le poche truppe disponibili all'ovest, e la russia ,al giugno 44 era quasi totalmente liberata.
Un invasione del continente sarebbe tranquillamente riuscita anche nel 43, e magari anche nel 42,
addirittura,se si fossero impegnati realmente, i britannici,che avevano ancora la marina + grande del mondo, oltre 10 volte quella tedesca, sarebbero potuti sbarcare nel 41 prima dell'intervento degli usa, tutto l'impero britannico contro 50 mediocri divisioni tedesche.

Gli inglesi ci provarono nel '42, a Dieppe. Fu uno sbarco di "prova", giusto per saggiare le difese tedesche. Persero un'intera divisione canadese.
Anche per quello decisero di sbarcare più ad ovest, in Normandia.
Difficile però che gli inglesi da soli avrebbero potuto ottenere qualcosa. Intanto la loro flotta era impegnata praticamente ovunque e nel '41 erano in piena fase difensiva, attaccati da tre potenze nemiche: La Germania (soprattutto nell'Atlantico con i sommergibili e nel mare del nord), dall'Italia (nel Mediterraneo) e dal Giappone (nell'Indiano e nel Pacifico), e non avrebbero potuto in alcun modo passare all'offensiva.
Nel '42 i tedeschi avevano ancora ottime unità impegnate sulla costa atlantica. Solo più tardi dovettero spostarle ad est.
Invece è interessante notare come gli inglesi in Normandia sbarcarono sulle tre spiaggie meno guarnite. Le altre due (Utah ed Omaha) erano le più difese. Infatti gli americani ebbero molte perdite.
Se gli alleati aspettarono il '44 fu proprio perchè sapevano che i tedeschi non avevano unità forti in quel momento. Probabilmente ce l'avrebbero fatta anche nel '43, ma avrebbero perso molti più uomini.

questo la dice lunga sui benefici effetti dello stalinismo sulla fibra nazionale russa.

Piacerebbe pensare la stessa cosa, ma non credo che i russi abbiano contrastato i tedeschi a costo della vita perchè credevano nello stalinismo. E' solo perchè erano sicuri che sotto i nazi difficilmente potevano pensare di scamparla.

[agaragar]

Originally posted by marcejap
Gli inglesi ci provarono nel '42, a Dieppe. Fu uno sbarco di "prova", giusto per saggiare le difese tedesche. Persero un'intera divisione canadese.

Se leggi bene ho scritto "se si fossero impegnati realmente"
tutti sanno che dieppe fu un incursione fasulla per giustificare agli occhi dei sovietici il ritardo dello sbarco e per supportare la politica balcanica di Churchill,
perchè poi contro la superdifesa Dieppe e non in normandia o addirittura in Bretagna?
I canadesi protestarono per quella incursione.

Tutti sanno che gli alleati volevano che i russi si dissanguassero prima.

Piacerebbe pensare la stessa cosa, ma non credo che i russi abbiano contrastato i tedeschi a costo della vita perchè credevano nello stalinismo. E' solo perchè erano sicuri che sotto i nazi difficilmente potevano pensare di scamparla.

già, chissà perchè invece i francesi si arresero quasi senza combattere?

[marcejap]

Originally posted by Pasquin0
[B]Se leggi bene ho scritto "se si fossero impegnati realmente"
tutti sanno che dieppe fu un incursione fasulla per giustificare agli occhi dei sovietici il ritardo dello sbarco e per supportare la politica balcanica di Churchill,
perchè poi contro la superdifesa Dieppe e non in normandia o addirittura in Bretagna?
I canadesi protestarono per quella incursione.

Su questo sono d'accordo con te, però non credo che il comando inglese si rendesse veramente conto della forza delle difese tedesche a Dieppe.
Tentarono lo sbarco per spaventare il comando tedesco, che infatti spostò alcune unità in Francia, e così alleggerirono la pressione sui russi.
Se sbarcarono lì fu perchè era più rpido arrivarci che non in altre zone della Francia. Portare una flotta da sbarco verso la Bretagna li avrebbe esposti ai sommergibili tedeschi, che nel '42 erano all'apice della loro forza offensiva (almeno fino al maggio "nero" del '42)

già, chissà perchè invece i francesi si arresero quasi senza combattere?

Probabilmente perchè in Francia non c'era quel fanatismo acceso che caratterizzava i seguaci dei regimi del periodo. E poi nel '40 i tedeschi non avevano con loro quelle unità delle SS che massacravano i civili nemici, come ebbero modo di fare in Russia ed Ucraina.