Bloomberg su Alitalia e la sua crisi

[Amati75]

Matthew Lynn is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.

Alitalia Heads for Junkyard of European Airlines: Matthew Lynn
Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- No industry better illustrates economist Joseph Schumpeter's argument that capitalism is essentially a process of ``creative destruction'' than Europe's airline business.
New budget airlines, with alternative routes and innovative ways of doing business, are constantly being launched. At the same time, the old flag carriers that once dominated Europe's airports are slowly being whittled away by deregulation and low-cost competitors.
The latest one heading toward aviation history's junkyard? Alitalia SpA. As the number of traditional carriers starts to fall, it's possible to see the shape of Europe's 21st-century airline industry emerging -- a trio of mega-carriers, surrounded by budget and regional airlines.
The extent of Alitalia's crisis has become apparent. The Italian airline has already stumbled its way through a series of financial reconstructions. Now it appears to have entered a crisis from which there is no long-term exit.
The airline has said in the past two weeks that it could run out of cash and face liquidation if the unions don't agree to the latest reorganization plan of Chief Executive Giancarlo Cimoli. Last week, Cimoli said he may offer early retirement and let seasonal employees' contracts expire to cut as many as 5,000 jobs, or a quarter of the workforce.
Alitalia joins a growing list of airlines that have been overwhelmed by deregulation.
Humble Swiss
In Belgium, Sabena SA has long since disappeared into bankruptcy. The once-mighty Swissair has been replaced by the much humbler Swiss International Air Lines Ltd., and even that slimmed- down organization struggles for financial viability. KLM Royal Dutch Airlines has been gobbled up by Air France SA.
Will Cimoli's plan be enough? Alitalia has lost more than 2.3 billion euros ($2.77 billion) since 1989, and its domestic market share has dropped to 45 percent from 66 percent in 2002. The reality is that any rescue plan put forward now is much too late - - any airline that didn't start reorganizing at least five years ago is fit only for dismemberment.
The Italian government has said it won't provide any more help, even though it is the airline's majority owner. Last June, the government guaranteed a 400 million-euro loan from Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein to keep it alive, a sum that Alitalia has yet to make use of.
Alitalia has certainly been a turbulent ride for investors. The shares are trading at just 21 euro cents, down from more than 3 euros in April 1998.
Practically Worthless
The company is now valued at less than 830 million euros. In effect, investors are saying it's practically worthless.
The airline desperately needs to slim its payrolls, so the unions should be concerned. Neither Cimoli nor the government will say, ``Oh well, if you don't agree to the job cuts, we'll just find a couple of billion euros to keep you going.'' They are, no doubt, dramatizing their plight to sell the reorganization plan to the unions.
Yet, in reality, the choice is one of time: The demise will be either slow or fast. If, as seems increasingly likely, Alitalia disappears, the shape of Europe's revamped airline industry will be clear.
It will be dominated by three mega-carriers: Air France, Deutsche Lufthansa AG and British Airways Plc. Spain's Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana SA has an outside shot at joining the big league, and yet it seems likely to eventually merge with British Airways. BA already owns about 9 percent of Iberia, and the two airlines are cooperating on routes between Britain and Spain.
Budget Challengers
Beneath that will be a raft of budget carriers including Ryanair Holdings Plc, EasyJet Plc and Air Berlin GmbH, plus the big budget carrier to emerge from France. (There isn't one yet, though the French are very interested in aviation, and they won't let foreigners steal such an obvious market.)
All the other airlines will have to find themselves a slot in that universe. Can Cimoli find a place for Alitalia in that?
Two strategies are being developed by the big airlines. There is the BA route, concentrating on marketing and service to carve out a profitable slice of the industry. (It helps if your main airport is located in Europe's No. 1 financial city.) Or you can slowly acquire neighbors to make yourself the dominant carrier, as Air France is doing.
Lufthansa is sitting in the middle, seemingly unsure whether to expand by acquisition or just settle for partnerships in its Star Alliance program. It already owns regional airline Air Dolomiti SpA in Italy.
Unlikely Partners
The only possible partners for Alitalia are Air France and Lufthansa. Alitalia is already a member of the French carrier's SkyTeam partnership, and the two airlines have swapped 2 percent stakes in each other. Yet it's still too soon after taking control of KLM for Air France to do the same to its Italian rival. And Lufthansa would be far more likely to buy Swiss International if it went shopping.
Italian aviation will be a big, profitable business for someone. Still, why not let Alitalia collapse, then pick up the pieces you want from the liquidators? Or just move in and capture the market yourself?
The process of creative destruction is far from finished. Schumpeter would certainly have approved. And so should passengers, who are being offered more routes than ever before at cheaper prices as the old flag carriers bite the dust.

To contact the writer of this column:
Matthew Lynn in London at matthewlynn@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this column:
Bill Ahearn at bahearn@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: September 6, 2004 03:21 EDT

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...columnist_lynn

[dragone]

in italia non credo alla distruzione creativa,anche se sarebbe certamente meglio la nuova compagnia rispetto all'attuale:sfortunatamente per me,ho un mucchietto(anche se piccolo)di convertibili Alitalia....