Negli USA ci si sente soprattutto conservatori

[Florian]

Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group

Compared with 2008, more Americans “conservative” in general, and on issues

by Lydia Saad

October 26, 2009


PRINCETON, NJ -- Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.




The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter. Conservatives have been the dominant ideological group each quarter, with between 39% and 41% of Americans identifying themselves as either "very conservative" or "conservative." Between 35% and 37% of Americans call themselves "moderate," while the percentage calling themselves "very liberal" or "liberal" has consistently registered between 20% and 21% -- making liberals the smallest of the three groups.





Independents Inch to the Right

Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008. By contrast, among Republicans and Democrats, the percentage who are "conservative" has increased by one point each.

As is typical in recent years, Republicans are far more unified in their political outlook than are either independents or Democrats. While 72% of Republicans in 2009 call their views conservative, independents are closely split between the moderate and conservative labels (43% and 35%, respectively). Democrats are about evenly divided between moderates (39%) and liberals (37%).








Americans Also Moving Right on Some Issues

In addition to the increase in conservatism on this general ideology measure, Gallup finds higher percentages of Americans expressing conservative views on several specific issues in 2009 than in 2008.

Perceptions that there is too much government regulation of business and industry jumped from 38% in September 2008 to 45% in September 2009.
The percentage of Americans saying they would like to see labor unions have less influence in the country rose from 32% in August 2008 to a record-high 42% in August 2009.
Public support for keeping the laws governing the sale of firearms the same or making them less strict rose from 49% in October 2008 to 55% in October 2009, also a record high. (The percentage saying the laws should become more strict -- the traditionally liberal position -- fell from 49% to 44%.)
The percentage of Americans favoring a decrease in immigration rose from 39% in June/July 2008 to 50% in July 2009.
The propensity to want the government to "promote traditional values" -- as opposed to "not favor any particular set of values" -- rose from 48% in 2008 to 53% in 2009. Current support for promoting traditional values is the highest seen in five years.
The percentage of Americans who consider themselves "pro-life" on abortion rose from 44% in May 2008 to 51% in May 2009, and remained at a slightly elevated 47% in July 2009.
Americans' belief that the global warming problem is "exaggerated" in the news rose from 35% in March 2008 to 41% in March 2009.
Gallup has not recorded heightened conservatism on all major social and political views held by Americans. For instance, attitudes on the death penalty, gay marriage, the Iraq war, and Afghanistan have stayed about the same since 2008. However, there are no major examples of U.S. public opinion becoming more liberal in the past year. (Gallup's annual trends on healthcare will be updated in November, so those attitudes are not included in this review.)

The conservative shifts discussed here result as much from changes in political independents' views as from changes in Republicans' views. Democrats' views, by contrast, have generally changed only slightly -- either to the conservative or liberal side -- with two exceptions: Gallup finds greater movement in Democrats' views of abortion, which have become more liberal, and their views of labor unions, which have become more conservative.





Bottom Line

Americans are more likely to consider themselves conservative this year than they were in 2008, resulting in conservatives -- now 40% of the American public -- outnumbering moderates for the first time since 2004. While Gallup first documented this trend in June, the finding has been sustained through the third quarter.

Conservatism is most prevalent among Republicans. However, the overall increase in this ideological stance since 2008 comes largely from political independents, among whom 35% say they are conservatives thus far in 2009 -- compared with 29% last year. Independents have also become more conservative on a number of specific policy issues, including government and union power, the role of government relative to promoting values, gun laws, immigration, global warming, and abortion. Republicans, most of whom considered themselves ideologically conservative in 2008, have also grown more conservative on several of these issues this year, while less change is seen among Democrats.

All of this has potentially important implications at the ballot box, particularly for the 2010 midterm elections. The question is whether increased conservatism, particularly among independents, will translate into heightened support for Republican candidates. Right now, it appears it may. Although Gallup polling continues to show the Democratic Party leading the Republican Party in Americans' party identification, that lead has been narrowing since the beginning of the year and now stands at six points, the smallest since 2005. According to Gallup Managing Editor Jeff Jones, "the Democratic-Republican gap is narrowing because more independents now say they lean to the Republican Party." That trend aligns with the recent changes in how independents perceive their own ideology and where they stand on some key issues.


Survey Methods

The 2009 political ideology results reported here are based on 16 aggregated Gallup surveys conducted from January to September 2009. For results based on the total sample of 16,321 national adults, aged 18 and older, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.


Conservatives Maintain Edge as Top Ideological Group

[Florian]

Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.




The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter. Conservatives have been the dominant ideological group each quarter, with between 39% and 41% of Americans identifying themselves as either "very conservative" or "conservative." Between 35% and 37% of Americans call themselves "moderate," while the percentage calling themselves "very liberal" or "liberal" has consistently registered between 20% and 21% -- making liberals the smallest of the three groups.

That's Incredible! Questi numeri per un europeo hanno veramente dell'incredibile! Ben il 40% degli americani si considera (e non viene descritto come) "conservatore", contro il 36% "indipendente" e appena il 20% "liberal". Questo significa che la destra, nella percezione che gli americani hanno di se stessi e delle proprie idee politiche, non solo supera di gran lunga la sinistra, ma addirittura la doppia! Ed è questo, come si può vedere dai grafici un trend di lungo corso (nel 1992 il rapporto era addirittura di 43 a 17!).

[Florian]

Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008. By contrast, among Republicans and Democrats, the percentage who are "conservative" has increased by one point each.

As is typical in recent years, Republicans are far more unified in their political outlook than are either independents or Democrats. While 72% of Republicans in 2009 call their views conservative, independents are closely split between the moderate and conservative labels (43% and 35%, respectively). Democrats are about evenly divided between moderates (39%) and liberals (37%).

Ma guardiamo questi dati più da vicino.

Ebbene, il Partito Repubblicano è ormai a tutti gli effetti un "partito conservatore", visto che ben il 72% del suo elettorato si esprime in tal senso. Appena il 24 è moderato, mentre l'ala liberal è insignificante (4%).

Non solo, tra gli indipendenti i conservatori sono il 35% (contro il 29% dell'anno scorso, effetto Obama), mentre i i moderati il 43 e i liberals solo il 18!

Tuttavia stupisce ancor di più il comportamento dei democratici. In Europa il Democratic Party è considerato generalmente di sinistra. Ebbene, stando ai dati di questo sondaggio non è affatto così, basti pensare che ben il 22% di chi ha eletto Obama si considera conservatore (contro il 39 di moderati e il 37 di liberals). Dunque la sinistra propriamente detta nel partito di Obama è netta minoranza, solo il 37% contro il 63% di centristi e destra.

[Florian]

Americans Also Moving Right on Some Issues

In addition to the increase in conservatism on this general ideology measure, Gallup finds higher percentages of Americans expressing conservative views on several specific issues in 2009 than in 2008.

Perceptions that there is too much government regulation of business and industry jumped from 38% in September 2008 to 45% in September 2009.
The percentage of Americans saying they would like to see labor unions have less influence in the country rose from 32% in August 2008 to a record-high 42% in August 2009.
Public support for keeping the laws governing the sale of firearms the same or making them less strict rose from 49% in October 2008 to 55% in October 2009, also a record high. (The percentage saying the laws should become more strict -- the traditionally liberal position -- fell from 49% to 44%.)
The percentage of Americans favoring a decrease in immigration rose from 39% in June/July 2008 to 50% in July 2009.
The propensity to want the government to "promote traditional values" -- as opposed to "not favor any particular set of values" -- rose from 48% in 2008 to 53% in 2009. Current support for promoting traditional values is the highest seen in five years.
The percentage of Americans who consider themselves "pro-life" on abortion rose from 44% in May 2008 to 51% in May 2009, and remained at a slightly elevated 47% in July 2009.
Americans' belief that the global warming problem is "exaggerated" in the news rose from 35% in March 2008 to 41% in March 2009.
Gallup has not recorded heightened conservatism on all major social and political views held by Americans. For instance, attitudes on the death penalty, gay marriage, the Iraq war, and Afghanistan have stayed about the same since 2008. However, there are no major examples of U.S. public opinion becoming more liberal in the past year. (Gallup's annual trends on healthcare will be updated in November, so those attitudes are not included in this review.)

The conservative shifts discussed here result as much from changes in political independents' views as from changes in Republicans' views. Democrats' views, by contrast, have generally changed only slightly -- either to the conservative or liberal side -- with two exceptions: Gallup finds greater movement in Democrats' views of abortion, which have become more liberal, and their views of labor unions, which have become more conservative.

Tutte le istanze di destra sono maggiormente supportate e ancora di più rispetto ad un anno fa:

- chi considera troppo forte la regolazione del business è il 45%
- chi crede che il sindacato abbia troppa influenza è il 42%
- chi si oppone al controllo governativo delle armi è il 55%
- chi chiede una riduzione dell'immigrazione è al 50%
- chi chiede al governo di promuovere "valori tradizionali" è il 53% (cifra pazzesca, mai stata così alta negli ultimi 5 anni!)
- gli antiabortisti oscillano tra il 47 e il 51% (!)
- chi considera "esagerato" il problema del global warming è il 41%


Cifre da capogiro se paragonate alle posizioni degli europei (anche di destra) sugli stessi temi!

[Florian]

Quasi la metà degli americani (45%) considera troppo forte la regolazione del business e crede che il sindacato abbia troppa influenza (42%)

Sono questi i "conservatori economici", che in Italia sono minoranza esigua persino nel PDL.

* * *

Più della metà degli americani (55%) si oppone al controllo governativo delle armi.

In Europa nessun partito politico (nemmeno i neonazisti) ha pensato mai di fare della libera circolazione di armi una battaglia politica. E ovviamente chi negli USA si oppone alle armi - vedi il regista buffone Michael Moore - è considerato un eroe.

* * *

La metà degli americani (50%) chiede una riduzione dell'immigrazione.

Questo dato è singolare, visto che l'America è notoriamente terra d'immigrati. Ed è forse l'unico dato che mette in sintonia gli USA con l'Europa (forse in Europa la percentuale di antiimmigrazionisti supera addirittura il 50%).

* * *

Più della metà degli americani (53%) chiede al governo di promuovere "valori tradizionali" e la metà circa (47-51%) si dichiara antiabortista.

Attenzione, questa maggioranza non chiede solo una "difesa" governativa dei valori tradizionali - che in Europa già i liberali di destra e di sinistra considerebbero intollerabile - ma addirittura vuole che li "promuova". Il che da noi è considerato in poche parole "fascista".

Non parliamo poi di quel 50% di antiabortisti. Il massimo che il PDL riesce a fare è difendere la 194 (legge abortista), così come la Chiesa non va al di là di un pronunciamento negativo di bandiera, sapendo di essere minoranza.

Invece gli americani senza Chiesa di Stato, senza Papi, senza tradizioni feudali e di destra, sono pro-valori, pro-famiglia e pro-life! Giù il cappello, signori!!! (Il prossimo tipo che incontro che mi dice che negli USA non esiste la destra lo strangolo...)

* * *

Poco meno della metà degli americani (41%) infine considera "esagerato" il problema del global warming.

Altro dato in controtendenza rispetto all'Europa, dove tutti - a partire da Sarkozy - si genuflettono sulla religione di Kyoto. Oggi spuntano fuori le prime verità al riguardo, si comincia apertamente a parlare di "bufala"... ma negli USA il Global warming non è mai stato preso troppo sul serio dalla gente comune (che non è Al Gore!)

* * *

E questo sondaggio dell'autorevole e stimata Gallup non prende in esame altre istanze tipiche della destra USA come la difesa della pena di morte, l'orgoglio nazionalista e la tendenza al militarismo. Sarebbe stato interessante leggere dati che avrebbero creato imbarazzo a qualunque europeo (di sinistra, ma anche e soprattutto di destra!).

Questa radiografia dell'America ci mostra - al di là do Obama e tutte le cazzate che sono state dette sul suo conto - un'America più che mai a destra, in cui i liberals sono sulla difensiva su tutti i fronti, un trend questo iniziatosi col reaganismo e che continua a salire. L'America di Obama è più a destra dell'America di Reagan, nonostante un Congresso e una Presidenza incidentalmente democratici.

Per questo l'Europa che non ha una destra deve guardare all'America come modello e speranza di salvezza da un inarrestabile declino.

[FalcoConservatore]

Molto interessanti questi dati, corredati dalle sempre ottime spiegazioni e illustrazioni di Florian. Ci dipingono un'America insperatamente sempre più Right, dominata sì a livello istituzionale da democratici e liberals, ma conservatrice nello spirito. E dunque, resto convinto del fatto che i Repubblicani hanno davanti a se l'opportunità storica di costruire una alternativa solida e dalle larghe radici. Obama già dopo un anno di Presidenza appare, anzi si trova in grosse difficoltà: le sue promesse maliarde non incantano più nessuno. Si sta svelando per quello che è: una star tutta immagine e niente sostanza. Fuffa, insomma.
Ahimè il GOP resta diviso, ma la fase di transizione - scontata dopo la batosta - è inevitabile. Due anime si contendono il controllo del partito, l'una moderata e l'altra conservatrice; ebbene io credo che sia possibile trovare un punto di sintesi, perchè se è vero che gli accenti troppo radicali ed estremisti fanno perdere le elezioni, resta d'altra parte intatto un serbatoio preziosissimo di voti conservatori, come dimostrano questi sondaggi.

[FalcoConservatore]

Comunque, che i liberals all'interno dei Dems siano in realtà una minoranza relativa (se non nel numero delle teste, almeno nel peso politico specifico) lo dimostrano i tentennamenti di Obama su certe scelte fin troppo audaci, ma soprattutto le differenziazioni interne dei cosiddetti "Blue Dogs", democratici conservatori del Sud. Molti congressisti hanno la paura folle di non essere rieletti fra un anno: e fanno bene ad averla, perchè buona parte del paese è e resta conservatrice.