Italy's Prodi Wins Debate Over Berlusconi, Polls Say (Update1)
2006-03-15 02:29 (New York)
(Adds comment in 11th paragraph; poll in fifth.)
By Steve Scherer and Flavia Krause-Jackson
March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Italian opposition leader Romano
Prodi defeated Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in a television
debate that centered on the economy just 25 days before the
national election, according to polls and analysts.
A snap poll conducted by SWG Srl and published on the
Corriere della Sera newspaper Web site after yesterday's debate
showed Prodi the winner by ``more than 10 percentage points.''
Another poll by IPR Marketing for la Repubblica showed 50
percent giving Prodi the edge compared with 44 percent for
Berlusconi. Berlusconi's House of Freedoms coalition trails
Prodi's Union bloc by about 5 percentage points in the run-up to
the April 9 and 10 vote, recent polls show.
``More than David winning, it was Goliath who lost,'' said
Mario Morcellini, head of the communications department at
Rome's Sapienza University. ``The debate will render
Berlusconi's ability to come back much harder, and it will
solidify Prodi's leadership position within the coalition.''
The economy was the central theme of the debate.
Berlusconi, 69, won the largest majority in parliament since
World War II in 2001 on promises of tax cuts and economic
prosperity. Tax cuts were scaled back as the economy struggled,
showing zero growth during two of Berlusconi's five years in
power. Yesterday evening Prodi, 66, reiterated promises to
reduce labor costs for companies to help restore growth.
Before the debate, almost a quarter of Italian voters had
not decided how they will vote and about half said they were
``truly undecided,'' according to an Ispo Ltd. poll. The survey,
carried out March 8-9, interviewed 1,600 eligible voters and has
a 2.5 percent margin of error.
Labor Costs
``We have to lower labor costs,'' Prodi said in response to
the first question in the hour-and-fifteen-minute debate. ``We
have to give a push to the system.''
Berlusconi's 2001 ``Contract With Italians'' promised to
cut the number of income-tax brackets to two, with the highest
at 33 percent. He only lowered the highest rate to 43 percent
from 45 percent, and there are still four brackets. The economy
has generated only about 1.2 million new jobs, half of those by
legalizing foreign workers, according to Istat, the national
statistics agency; Berlusconi's ``Contract'' promised 1.5
million.
Apart from taxes and the economy, the candidates were asked
about the euro, immigration, public works policy, women in
politics, the government's relationship with labor unions and
employers, and what to do about Iran's nuclear program.
`The opposite of reality'
Prodi was effective at explaining his vision for a future
government in simple terms, while Berlusconi used too many
numbers and focused on the past, Morcellini said. Prodi's
rebuttals were also better, while Berlusconi often repeated that
Prodi's arguments were ``the opposite of reality'' without
explaining why, he said.
Berlusconi attacked Prodi directly, trying to paint him as
a weak leader of a divided coalition. Prodi leads a bloc of
about a dozen parties ranging from Catholic to communist and
isn't a member of any of them.
``Prodi was speaking to the audience, whilst it was clear
Berlusconi had some stock answers wanted to get across and that
he wasn't really answering the questions,'' said Robert
Leonardi, author of the 2003 book ``Italy: Politics and
Policy,'' and a senior lecturer at the London School of
Economics, in a telephone interview. ``Berlusconi was on the
attack but his attack missed the mark.''
`Divided' Coalition
Prodi ``has behind him a coalition that is divided and uses
him as a front man,'' Berlusconi said. ``Those who support him
aren't presentable because they are Communist Party members.''
The debate was conducted under strict rules, which were
fashioned around those that governed the U.S. presidential and
vice presidential debates in 2004. There was a moderator with
the director general of the state-owned RAI network, and two
journalists asked 30-second questions. Each candidate had 2 1/2
minutes to respond, with a 1 minute rebuttal for each. The
candidates weren't supposed to address one another directly.
Berlusconi overshot his first response by 30 seconds and
had to be cut off, and then repeatedly went over time during the
evening. That prompted him to complain about the format of the
debate during his final remarks, when he was again cut short by
the moderator.
Debate Format
``This system doesn't let one complete an idea,''
Berlusconi said. He said he wasn't able to communicate his
vision for the future because of the debate format.
``I sensed a lot of mental and intellectual fatigue in
Berlusconi,'' said Franco Pavoncello, a professor of political
science at Rome's John Cabot University. ``He surprised me. He's
too much of a good salesman to make a statement like that at the
end of a debate.''
Berlusconi's low point probably came when he was explaining
why there weren't more women candidates among his ranks.
``It's not that easy to get women to leave their husbands
to move to Rome,'' Berlusconi said.
The six most recent opinion polls commissioned by the news
media since March 6 show the prime minister trailing by 3 to 6.7
percentage points. A survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted by
Rome-based polling company IPR Marketing Group on March 10 and
11 had Prodi's Union alliance at 52 percent, to 47.7 percent for
Berlusconi's House of Freedoms bloc. No margin of error was
given.
``Studies show that TV in general can move between 2 and 6
percent of the electorate,'' said Alexander Stille, a professor
at the Columbia School of Journalism in New York and author of
``Citizen Berlusconi,'' a book published in Italy last month.
After Berlusconi complained about the format of the debate
in his closing remarks, Prodi used a move Berlusconi had often
turned to in the past. Prodi declared himself an optimist.
``Italy can make it and be a stronger country in the
world,'' Prodi said. ``It will be possible to spread a little
bit of happiness for us.''
--Editor: Davis (kmc)
Story illustration: To access the government's Web site, see
http://www.governo.it/
To access Romano Prodi's Web site, see
http://www.romanoprodi.it/
To access Berlusconi's party Web site, see
http://www.forzaitalia.it/index3.htm


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