SRI LANKA appears to be dominating Tamil separatists on the battlefield, but a dwindling war chest may have forced it to enter peace talks ordered by foreign donors, analysts and diplomats say. “There is no doubt that the military enjoys the upper hand in current battles,” says retired air force chief Harry Gunatillake. “But there is an economic compulsion to go for negotiations.” The government reluctantly accepted talks, marking a breakthrough in the Norwegian-led and internationally-backed peace process, after the island’s main donors threatened to pull the plug on muchneeded aid.
“Failure to cease hostilities, pursue a political settlement, respect human rights...could lead the international community to diminish its support,” Sri Lanka's main financial backers said. The statement issued after a meeting of the US, Japan, the EU and asked Colombo and the Tiger rebels to start talks in early October and be ready for a “progress review” by month’s end.
After initially denying that the government had agreed to unconditional talks, the island’s peace secretariat which works with Norway later issued a statement on Wednesday say ing Colombo would return to the negotiating table.
The Tigers themselves have been calling for talks after accusing the military of killing civilians and destroying property. A recent upsurge in the fighting had reduced a Norwegian-arranged 2002 truce to tatters although both sides publicly declare that they will uphold the ceasefire.
Analysts and diplomats agree that the military, after taking a severe beating from the Tigers since December, had turned the tide against the guerrillas in recent months.
“The Sri Lankan armed forces appear to have had the better of the fighting in the last few weeks — on land and at sea,” says British High Commissioner Dominic Chilcott.
“But most outside observers, including the UK, continue to think that it would be a serious miscalculation to believe that this means Sri Lanka's national problem can be solved by military action.”
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