Ho trovato un sito con le varie probabilità di indipendenza delle varie aree del mondo... secondo me è carino, ergo... lo posto st%=probabilità di indipendenza a breve LT%=probabilità di indipendenza a lungo termine
TERRITORY CURRENT SOVEREIGNITY ST% LT%


PALESTINE ISRAEL 55 - 95
JUDEA/SAMARIA ISRAEL/PALESTINE 2 5
NORTHERN CYPRUS CYPRUS 30 - 45
KOSOVO * SERBIA/UNITED NATION 65 80 +
VOJVODINA SERBIA 10 - 30 -
SRPSKA REPUBLIC ? BOSNIA AND HERZEGOV. 10 30
BRCKO BOSNIA AND HERZEGOV. 2 5
NORTHERN EPIRUS ALBANIA 1 5
ILLYRIA REPUBLIC ALBANIA/MACEDONIA 1 - 5 -
ISTRIA CROATIA 1 15
DALMATIA CROATIA 1 15
KRAJINA CROATIA 1 15
TRANSNISTRIA # MOLDOVA 30 40
GAGAUZ YERI MOLDOVA 5 - 10
SZEKLER (EAST TR.)ROMANIA 1 15
SUDETENLAND CZECH REPUBLIC 1 2
MORAVIA/SILESIA CZECH REPUBLIC 1 2
KASHUBIA POLAND 1 1
SLASKA POLAND 1 1
LIVONIA LATVIA 1 2
SAMILAND/LAPPLAND NOR.-SWED.-RUS.-FIN. 1 2
SVALBARD NORWAY 1 5
SCANIA SWEDEN 1 1
ALAND @ FINLAND 1 10
FAEROE ISLANDS DENMARK 2 30 +
GREENLAND DENMARK 20 50 +
BORNHOLM ISLAND DENMARK 1 2
BAVARIA GERMANY 1 5
CHAGOS ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM 10 + 45 +
SAINT HELENA UNITED KINGDOM 2 10
ANGUILLA UNITED KINGDOM 2 35
MONTSERRAT UNITED KINGDOM 2 25
BERMUDA UNITED KINGDOM 2 35
VIRGIN ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM 2 30
CAYMAN ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM 2 30
TURKS AND CAICOS**UNITED KINGDOM 10 + 40 +
ISLE OF MAN UNITED KINGDOM 2 30
CHANNEL ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM 2 30
WALES UNITED KINGDOM 2 25
SCOTLAND UNITED KINGDOM 5 30
NORTHERN IRELAND UNITED KINGDOM 10 40 +
ORKNEY UNITED KINGDOM 1 5
CORNWALL UNITED KINGDOM 1 5
GIBRALTAR *** UNITED KINGDOM 5 30
FALKLAND ISL.**** UNITED KINGDOM 1 15
ARUBA NETHERLANDS 5 35
SAINT MARTEEN NETHERLANDS 5 + 35 +
CURACAO NETHERLANDS 5 25
SAINT EUSTATIUS NETHERLANDS 2 20
BONAIRE NETHERLANDS 2 - 15
SABA NETHERLANDS 2 15
NETHERLANDS ANT. NETHERLANDS 5 30
FRYSLAN NETHERLANDS 1 5
FLANDERS BELGIUM 1 10
GUADELOUPE FRANCE 5 40
MARTINIQUE FRANCE 5 40
FRENCH GUYANA FRANCE 5 40
NEW CALEDONIA FRANCE 35 + 65 +
FRENCH POLYNESIA FRANCE 25 + 50 +
WALLIS AND FUTUNA FRANCE 10 + 50 +
ST PIERRE AND MIQ.FRANCE 1 20
REUNION FRANCE 5 30
MAYOTTE ***** FRANCE 5 35
BRITTANY FRANCE 1 5
CORSICA FRANCE 1 10
ALSACE-LORRAINE FRANCE/GERMANY 1 5
SAVOIE FRANCE 1 5
OCCITANIA FRANCE 1 2
BASQUE REGION SPAIN/FRANCE 2 35
NAVARRA ****** SPAIN 1 5
CATALONIA SPAIN 2 35
GALICIA SPAIN 1 10 +
CANARY ISLANDS SPAIN 1 10
ANDALUCIA SPAIN 1 5
VALENCIA ****** SPAIN 1 5 +
CHUNTA ARAGON SPAIN 1 1
ASTURIAS SPAIN 1 1
BALEARES ****** SPAIN 1 5
AZORES PORTUGAL 1 5
MADEIRA PORTUGAL 1 10
ROMANDIE SWITZERLAND 1 1
PADANIA ITALY 1 2
SARDINIA ITALY 1 5
SICILY ITALY 1 5
AOSTA VALLEY ITALY 1 5
SOUTH TYROL ITALY 1 5
LOMBARDIA ITALY 1 1
FRIULI-VENETO ITALY 1 1
CAMPIONE ITALY 1 5
GREEK MACEDONIA GREECE 1 5
CRETE GREECE 1 1
CRIMEA # UKRAINE 10 35
DONETSK # UKRAINE 10 35
CHECHNYA RUSSIA 20 55
DAGESTAN RUSSIA 5 40
TATARSTAN RUSSIA 5 40 +
BASHKORTOSTAN RUSSIA 2 20 +
KALININGRAD RUSSIA 2 35
INGUSHETIA RUSSIA 5 35
KABARDINO-BALKAR. RUSSIA 2 20
KARACHAY-CHERKES. RUSSIA 2 15
NORTHERN OSSETIA RUSSIA 2 20 +
ADYGEYA RUSSIA 2 15
STAVROPOL RUSSIA 1 10
EASTERN SIBERIA RUSSIA 2 30
TUVA REPUBLIC RUSSIA 1 10
MARY EL RUSSIA 2 20
YAKUTIA RUSSIA 1 20
CHUKOTKA RUSSIA 1 20
SAKHALIN RUSSIA 1 20
PRIMOSKI RUSSIA 1 20
KAMCHATKA RUSSIA 1 15
MAGADAN RUSSIA 1 15
ABKHAZIA # GEORGIA 30 + 50 +
SOUTH OSSETIA # GEORGIA 15 35
ADZHARIA GEORGIA 5 - 25
MINGRELIA GEORGIA 1 10
NAGORNO KARABAKH AZERBAIJAN 40 50
NAKHICHEVAN AZERBAIJAN 10 35 +
TALYSH-MUGHAN AZERBAIJAN 1 5
SOUTH. AZERBAIJAN IRAN 1 20
WEST AZERBAIJAN IRAN 1 15
KHUZESTAN IRAN 1 15
SISTAN-BALUCHISTAN IRAN 1 15
GORNO BADAKHSAN TAJIKISTAN 2 25
KARAKALPAKSTAN UZBEKISTAN 2 25
KURDISTAN IRAQ-TURKEY-SYRIA-IRAN5 + 45 +
MOUNT LEBANON LEBANON 1 15
IRAQI KURDISTAN IRAQ 25 - 50
SHIIS STATE IRAQ 20 40
ASSYRIA IRAQ 1 10
HAWAR ISLANDS BAHRAIN 1 5
DUBAI UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1 15
SHARJAH UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1 25
MUSCAT OMAN 1 15
SOUTH YEMEN YEMEN 2 20 -
SOCOTRA YEMEN 2 20
OKINAWA-RYUKUS IS.JAPAN 1 10
HOKKAIDO JAPAN 1 2
AINU REPUBLIC JAPAN 1 1
CHEJU-DO SOUTH KOREA 1 2
TAMIL STATE SRI LANKA 10 - 20
HAZARAJAT AFGHANISTAN 2 15
KANDAHAR AFGHANISTAN 2 15
NANGAHAR AFGHANISTAN 1 10
HERAT AFGHANISTAN 1 15
PASHTOONISTAN AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN 2 25
BALOCHISTAN PAKISTAN 5 30
SINDH PAKISTAN 5 25
BALAWARISTAN PAKISTAN 5 30
HUNZA-BROOSHAL PAKISTAN 5 25
WAZIRISTAN PAKISTAN 5 25
KASHMIR INDIA-PAKISTAN 5 35
ASSAM ^ INDIA 2 25
SIKKIM ******* INDIA 2 20 -
NAGALAND ^ INDIA 2 - 20 -
MEGHALAYA ^ INDIA 1 15
MANIPUR ^ INDIA 2 20
KHALISTAN (SIKH) INDIA 1 10
TAMIL NADU INDIA 2 10
TRIPURA ^ INDIA 2 - 10
ARUNACHAL PRADESH INDIA 1 10
WEST BENGAL ^ INDIA 1 10
KERALA INDIA 1 10
ANDAMAN-NICOBAR I.INDIA 1 20
LAKSHADWEEP ISL. INDIA 1 10
ZOGAM INDIA/BANGL./MYANMAR 1 5
BANGABHUMI BANGLADESH 2 20
CHAKMA(CHIT.HILLS)BANGLADESH 5 20
SUVADIVES MALDIVES 1 15
MAHADHESI REPUB. NEPAL 2 + 15 +
TAIWAN ******** CHINA 2 50
TIBET CHINA 2 40
XINJIANG (UIGHUR) CHINA 2 40
INNER MONGOLIA CHINA 2 20
MANCHURIA CHINA 1 10
GUANGXI CHINA 1 10
HONG KONG CHINA 1 20
MACAO CHINA 1 15
LADAKH CHINA-PAKISTAN 1 5
HMONG STATE LAOS-THAILAND-VIETNAM 1 5
SOUTH VIETNAM VIETNAM 1 2
KAYIN (KAREN)STATEMYANMAR 5 25
MON STATE MYANMAR 2 10
SHAN STATE MYANMAR 10 + 35 +
WA STATE MYANMAR 5 - 30 -
CHIN STATE MYANMAR 5 25
KACHIN STATE MYANMAR 5 25
RAKHINE STATE MYANMAR 5 20
ARAKAN STATE MYANMAR 2 15
PANGWAUM MYANMAR 1 10
NAMPAN MYANMAR 1 10
YSAAN THAILAND 1 5
SOUTH MUSLIM THAI.THAILAND 1 15
SARAWAK MALAYSIA 1 25
SABAH MALAYSIA 1 25
MINDANAO PHILIPPINES 5 30
CORDILLERA PHILIPPINES 1 15
ACEH INDONESIA 15 - 40 -
WEST PAPUA INDONESIA 30 50
WEST TIMOR INDONESIA 5 25
RIAU INDONESIA 1 15
SOUTH MOLUCCAS INDONESIA 5 25
EAST KALIMANTAN INDONESIA 5 20
SULAWESI INDONESIA 5 20
BOUGAINVILLE PAPUA NEW GUINEA 30 60 +
MILNE BAY PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2 + 15 +
HELA PAPUA NEW GUINEA 5 + 25 +
BISMARK ISLANDS PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1 15
MALAITA SOLOMON ISLANDS 15 35
RENNELL & BELLONA SOLOMON ISLANDS 5 20
OTONG JAVA SOLOMON ISLANDS 5 25
ROTUMA ISLAND FIJI 2 25
POHNPEI MICRONESIA 2 25
YAP ISLANDS MICRONESIA 2 20
TRUK ISLANDS MICRONESIA 2 20
HALL ISLANDS MICRONESIA 2 20
E.SANTO (VEMERANA)VANUATU 2 25
MALAKULA VANUATU 2 20
TANNA (TAFEA) VANUATU 2 20
BANABA KIRIBATI 2 20
PHOENIX ISLANDS KIRIBATI 2 20
EASTERN ISLANDS KIRIBATI 2 20
RALIK ISLANDS MARSHALL ISLANDS 1 15
CHRISTMAS ISLAND AUSTRALIA 1 10
NORFOLK ISLAND AUSTRALIA 1 15
COCOS ISLAND AUSTRALIA 1 5
ARNHELM ISLAND AUSTRALIA 1 1
SNAKE HILL AUSTRALIA 1 1
NIUE NEW ZEALAND 1 10
COOK ISLANDS NEW ZEALAND 2 40
TOKELAU NEW ZEALAND 10 - 45
CHATAM ISLANDS NEW ZEALAND 1 2
QUEBEC CANADA 30 45
NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA 1 5
ALBERTA CANADA 1 5
WESTERN CANADA CANADA 1 5
BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA 1 5
PUERTO RICO UNITED STATES 10 40
NORTHERN MARIANAS UNITED STATES 15 50
US SAMOA *********UNITED STATES 10 40
GUAM UNITED STATES 5 40
VIRGIN ISLANDS UNITED STATES 1 25
TEXAS UNITED STATES 1 2
CALIFORNIA UNITED STATES 1 2
NEW MEXICO UNITED STATES 1 2
ARIZONA UNITED STATES 1 2
FLORIDA UNITED STATES 1 2
HAWAII UNITED STATES 1 5
ALASKA UNITED STATES 1 15
VERMONT UNITED STATES 1 1
MINNESOTA UNITED STATES 1 1
NEW ENGLAND UNITED STATES 1 1
SOUTHERN STATES UNITED STATES 1 2
RIO GRANDE-N.LEON&MEXICO 1 10
CHIAPAS MEXICO 1 20
YUCATAN MEXICO 1 10
SOUTHERN STATES & MEXICO 1 5
BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO 1 10
ATLANTIC REGIONS NICAGARUA 1 15
GUANACASTE COSTA RICA 1 5
ATLANTIC R.(LIMON)COSTA RICA 1 2
ARTIBONITE HAITI 1 2
BARBUDA ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 1 10
GRENADINES ST VINCENT AND THE GR.1 15
NEVIS ST KITTS AND NEVIS 20 - 50
TOBAGO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 1 15
SAINT ANDRES COLOMBIA 1 15
ZULIA VENEZUELA 1 2
SOUTHERN BRAZIL BRAZIL 1 15
SAO PAULO STATE BRAZIL 1 5
NORTHEAST BRAZIL BRAZIL 1 2
COAST REGION ECUADOR 2 25
LORETO PERU 1 5
ANDINE REGIONS PERU 5 20
LOS LLANOS BOLIVIA 15 + 30 +
SANTA CRUZ BOLIVIA 20 35 +
TARIJA BOLIVIA 10 + 20 +
BENI BOLIVIA 2 + 15
PANDO BOLIVIA 2 + 15
EASTER ISLAND CHILE 5 30 +
MAPUCHE NATION CHILE 1 1
PATAGONIA ARGENTINA 1 5
WESTERN SAHARA MOROCCO 40 - 75
KABYLIA(BERBER) ALGERIA 1 5
ZANZIBAR TANZANIA 10 45 +
SOMALILAND SOMALIA 50 70
PUNTLAND SOMALIA 25 - 40 -
SOUTHWEST.SOMALIA SOMALIA 10 - 20 -
OROMO STATE ETHIOPIA 1 25
TIGRAY STATE ETHIOPIA 1 25
GAMBELLA ETHIOPIA 2 + 20 +
OGADEN REGION ETHIOPIA 2 + 20 +
NORTH EASTERN FR. KENYA 1 10
COAST PROVINCE KENYA 1 20
KASSALA SUDAN 2 15
SOUTHERN SUDAN SUDAN 45 + 60 +
SOUTH.BLUE NILE SUDAN 10 30
ABYEI SUDAN 2 - 10
DARFUR SUDAN 10 35
BEJA SUDAN 2 15 +
LADO SUDAN 1 - 10 -
LOGONE REGION CHAD 2 10
CASAMANCE SENEGAL 15 - 35
ANJOUAN (NZWANI) COMOROS 20 - 40 -
MOHELI (MWALI) COMOROS 10 30
ALDABRA ISLANDS SEYCHELLES 1 15
WESTERN CAMEROON CAMEROON 5 45 +
SOUTHERN CAMEROONSCAMEROON 2 20 +
BAKASSI PENINSULA CAMEROON 5 + 30 +
BIAFRA NIGERIA 2 25
OGONI NIGERIA 2 25
HAUSA NIGERIA 2 10
NIGER DELTA NIGERIA 10 + 30 +
YORUBA NIGERIA/BENIN 1 5
DAGBON GHANA 2 20
NORTHERN REGIONS COTE D'IVOIRE 5 20
KATANGA CONGO KINSHASA 2 10
KASSAI CONGO KINSHASA 2 10
PRINCIPE SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE 1 15
BIOKO EQUATORIAL GUINEA 5 40 +
CABINDA ANGOLA 5 - 30 -
CAPRIVI NAMIBIA 2 25
BAROTSELAND ZAMBIA 1 5
MATABELELAND ZIMBABWE 1 2
ORANIA SOUTH AFRICA 1 5
WESTERN CAPE SOUTH AFRICA 1 10
KWAZULU/NATAL SOUTH AFRICA 1 5
RODRIGUES ISLAND MAURITIUS 2 20
AGALEGA ISLAND MAURITIUS 2 20
TOLIARA MADAGASCAR 1 5


* There is also the chance of a future merge between Kosovo and Albania
(possible in the long term).

** A proposal for Turks and Caicos has also been becoming a canadian oversea province.
(it will probably remains a dream).

*** There is also a chance in the long term for Gibraltar to be integrated into Spain.

**** There is also a chance in the long term for the Falkland to be integrated into Argentina.

***** There is also the chance of an integration of Mayotte in the Comoros
(little one for now).

****** There is also a remote chance for Valencia and the Baleares Islands
to join Catalonia as a joint independent country, as for Navarra to join the Basque
Region to form a united independent country.

******* There is also a proposal to integrate Sikkim and the southern Bhutan to Nepal.

******** Although Taiwan is a de facto independent country, recognized by many other
countries and it is considered, even by the editor himself, as an independent
country, these statistics are meant to give a rate of its chances to be
recognized by all the countries, including China, and integrated into
the United Nations.

********* There is also a slim chance for American Samoa to be integrated into
independent Samoa (former Western Samoa).

ฐ There is also a strong chance for the Sprska Republic to be integrated into Serbia.

& Rio Grande project includes the states of Nuevo Leon, Coahuila and Tamaulipas,
while Southern States includes Chiapas, Yucatan, Tabasco, Campeche and Quintana Roo.

^ Inside these indian states, there are also internal independence movements
like the ones of Karbi Anglong, Khasi, Achik, Meitei, Reang, Bodo, Kuki, Kamatapur and Rabha.

ง There is also the chance for Campione to be integrated into Switerland.

# There are also chances for these territories to be integrated into the Russian Federation.

@ There is also the chance of Aland Island to get integrated into Sweden.