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  1. #1
    Chap Socialist
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    Predefinito Simulazione: dal Kosovo, una possibile guerra tra NATO/UE e Russia

    Oggi leggevo il forum www.alternatehistory.com , il più grande forum mondiale di ucronie, e ho trovato una discussione interessante sul più "clichè" degli argomenti, ovvero una guerra tra la Russia e l'Occidente, ma traslata al giorno d'oggi.

    Questo mi sembrava il "casus belli" più verosimile (pur nella sua totale improbabilità):

    "Silent Thunder: The Russia-EU War of 2008

    Author’s Disclaimer: There is a good chance that this may be outdated before anyone sees it, but never mind, it could be considered Alternate History if nothing else.

    February 2008 – Kosovo declares independence from Serbia, much to the Serbs outrage and that of their Russian allies. The Russians do not move at once to take action – they have no choice, but to do something, as the loss of face involved in failing to do something would shatter Russia’s pretensions towards being a Great Power again – but they start preparing to take action. The Russian goal is to prevent permanent independence for Kosovo.

    As the month goes on, unrest in Serbia and Kosovo continues to rise, with major damage being done to American and European interests. Several powers announce their intentions to evacuate their embassies as rioters threaten the lives of their people; the UNSC attempts to condemn what they see as Serbia ignoring the threat to westerners. The Russians veto the resolution.

    March 2008 – Putin finally takes a stand and declares that Russia will not tolerate any pretensions of independence on the part of Kosovo. Putin has less room for manoeuvre here as he is coming under fire from both Russian nationalists and the Serbs; if Russia cannot live up to its promises, Russia will shortly have no allies left. He also starts reaching for various levers to use against NATO, from arms shipments to Iran and Serbia, to economic pressure against states dependent upon Russian energy supplies.

    There is an absence of clear leadership in NATO or the EU. The US, heavily involved in Iraq, is less able to assert it’s authority, while not every state in the EU is enthusiastic about becoming embroiled with Russia. Poland demands stronger action and several alternate energy polices, including much more development of nuclear power. Overall, the EU, unable to form a policy, will tend to follow what it already has – de facto recognition of Kosovo Independence.

    Kosovo, meanwhile, has its own problems. Serbs living within the area are clearly being armed and trained for a long-term insurgency and the UN troops stationed within the area are unable to prevent the weapons from getting through. As more weapons and training – suspected of including Russian soldiers – arrives, the insurgency gets worse, with attacks directed against UN soldiers, Kosovo politicians and others.

    Putin starts to dust off plans for military pressure.

    April 2008 – The official UN report concludes that Kosovo is in a state of civil war and suggests that KFOR be enlarged to keep a lid on the violence. Russia’s offer of troops for the mission is rapidly dismissed and the Russians flatly refuse to permit any further thoughts of independence. Anti-Russian feeling is hardening through Eastern Europe and reaching into Western Europe, despite ‘peace campaigns’ against more troop deployments to Kosovo. Despite this, the EU manages to put together some reinforcements, around 7000 men, mainly French and German.

    Putin has a choice; raise the ante or shut up. He decides to shift Russian military units to the borders of the Baltic States and use them in a less-than-subtle reminder of Russian power. The Russians talk sweetly in public, but in private they’re twisting arms; they want the EU to abandon Kosovo to the tender mercies of the Serbs, or else.

    NATO goes to red alert as the Baltics start screaming (but under the table) for help. The Polish military starts calling up reserves and preparing for a possible move into the Baltic States, while other militaries start activating their own reserve units.

    The Russians issue a warning; if NATO units reinforce the Baltics, they will jump into the Baltics and let the chips fall where they may. NATO thinks they’re bluffing; they’re not. As German troops prepare to march through Poland to join the defenders, the Russian army comes over the border into the Baltic States. The defenders have been deployed and have the advantage of knowing their territory, but the Russians have vastly greater firepower and air cover, at least at first. The Russians advance rapidly.

    Polish, German and French aircraft join the battle. The fighting spills out across the region, proving that NATO aircraft and training are superior, but the Russians have the numbers again. NATO attempts to rush reinforcements into the Baltics, using ships and air transports, but the operations are doomed to failure as the Russians secure their primary targets and defeat the remaining Baltic militaries. As refugees start to pour into Poland, fleeing the Russians, the NATO forces halt in Poland.

    Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, declares his country to be solidly behind it’s Slavic brethren and places his military directly under Russian control. Lukashenko, who has been agitating for a Belarus-Russian Union, sees this as his best chance to force the issue; within hours, there are clashes along the Belarus-Poland border and some Belarusian troops have moved into the Baltics. This is rather embarrassing to Putin, who would prefer to negotiate rather than expand the war, now that he’s made his point, but Russia has too few allies to quibble. Much.

    May 2008 – The various EU military departments have been swept away as the sudden pressure of a real crisis forces action. Germany and France would prefer to avoid a war, but both Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel know that they can’t risk shattering the EU over this issue. Merkel, who had sought stronger ties with Russia, is particularly alarmed, but with three NATO states under occupation, there is little in the way of manoeuvring room. The governments-in-exile are particularly vocal on the subject of Russian atrocities within the Baltics, faithfully reported through the Internet, and the very credibility of the EU is under threat.

    Putin is much less happy than it seems. He was never in favour of any kind of union between Belarus and Russia; he looks on Lukashenko as a fool who somehow managed to remain in power. His own hard-liners regard some of Lukashenko’s speeches as treason, or at least unfriendly, and he finds himself having to finess more issues than he would prefer to have to handle. There’s also the issue of the Belarus underground; they’re not keen on any alliance either. For the moment, Russian forces are taking up defensive positions in Belarus and the Baltics, but it hasn’t escaped Polish notice that the forces could be on the Polish border within hours.

    On the other side of the pond, President Bush views the crisis through tired eyes. He has one advantage over the Europeans; he doesn’t have to be re-elected. The downside is that the issue has become an election one; Poles in the US want their country protected, and it is a clear case of violence being directed against a NATO member. The problem is that the US is heavily committed to Iraq and various other places; the EU is not interested in recognising US primacy unless the US makes a major commitment, and the US is not really in a position to make a commitment. Some US units are committed to the situation, but others need time to prepare for deployment.

    Prime Minister Brown is the least enthusiastic about the war, even though there are some elements within the British power structure that would be delighted a chance to singe the Russian beard. He knows that Blair’s legacy will be forever tainted by Iraq and the involvement with the US; apart from the RAF and some ground units, Britain – too – is heavily committed in Iraq. Brown’s more left-wing supporters would like to use it as an excuse to pull UK forces out of Iraq, but they can’t get round the fact that they will be sent into another war zone.

    The diplomats are dancing around and around the issue. The problem is that their positions don’t match up; Russia wants Serbia to regain Kosovo, perhaps with a limited face-saving autonomy, and a freeze on all military moves. The EU does not want to bargain at gunpoint and the Poles won’t accept any freeze on military reinforcement while preparing for a possible war. Tension is rising…

    June 2008 – The insurrection in Kosovo finally explodes into the light, with attacks directed against both UN forces and the local government. Serbia orders out KFOR, warning that they are prepared to put an end to the rebellious province once and for all; KFOR, going to force protection, doesn’t have much time to react. As the Kosovo Government staggers under the weight of the insurrection, Serbian forces invade.

    This is immediately condemned by NATO and contingency plans are hastily dusted off; US carriers in the nearby waters launch air strikes against Serbian positions, backed up by Italian aircraft and various other southern EU air forces, trying to slow down and impede the Serbian invasion. The Serbs leaned from the prior war and have prepared, with Russian advice, and soak up the attacks and keep going. The human crisis rapidly grows worse as UN forces are attacked, captured, or destroyed. Russian SAM systems, deployed to Serbia, prove better than expected. Several US aircraft are shot down.

    Putin’s time has run out. The Russians have been badly implicated in aiding the Serbs and they have actually been supplying the Serbs with orbital images of the US actions and aiding them to coordinate their forces. He stalls, long enough to try to get a force of Russian ‘peacekeepers’ into the area, only to have them bombed by US aircraft, more or less by accident. As the rhetoric reaches a new level, with Russia accusing the US of deliberately attacking their units, Putin issues an ultimation; the EU can accept the situation on the ground, or else.

    The EU has been trying to organise a response to the latest crisis. The position is not helped by a struggle over who should command the NATO force, still largely German and French, but the sudden eruption of war in Kosovo forces the decision. A German has been appointed as the CO of the allied forces in Poland, just in time to face the most dangerous moment of 2008. The EU declares full mobilisation and starts rushing reinforcements forward into Poland, with the declared intention of fighting a limited war against Russia to liberate the Baltic States. Kosovo is put on the back-burner as the EU cannot realistically dictate the solution on the ground without much higher troop numbers.

    Putin’s military have been working on their own plans. The Russian Army has made vast strides since the Fall of the Soviet Union, but they’re not back at the same levels, yet. They do have vast numbers of tanks and guns, but many of them are outdated and outmatched by the NATO forces. They do, however, have a large covert operations capability and a certain disregard for the rules of conventional warfare. They have also not been wasting the time spent in the Baltics; while the diplomats danced, the Russians dug in and prepared for war.

    Putin would dearly love to see the crisis just blow over. The problem is that Russia’s face is involved here; he cannot just give the EU back the Baltics, regardless of anything else, without extracting a price in return. Russian nationalists have been taking to the streets to cheer on the Russian forces, despite the damage that has been inflicted on the Russian economy and simply backing down is not an option. Putin would prefer, given a choice, to stall until the Serbs settled the Kosovo issue through mass slaughter, but the US has ensured that that is no longer an option. The orders are issued…

    The Russian troops in Belarus come across the border into Poland, launching a classic spoiling attack, moving on the heels of a series of coordinated Special Forces operations in Poland and Western Europe. Russian SF hit bridges, rail links and army bases, after which the Russians launch several flights of cruise missiles into Poland and Germany. The combined force, at least, was expecting trouble; the Russians inflict serious damage, but the NATO command structure remains intact and the Russians are met in the field. Fighting spreads across Eastern Poland, but by the end of the first week, the Russians have only made small gains.

    Both sides are leaning rapidly from the other. The Russians have learned that the allies have better antitank weapons than they thought. The Europeans underestimated Russian air defences and lost several aircraft before they altered their operational patterns. The EU is also short on supplies; the US cuts loose as much as it can from it’s bases, but even so it will take time for the supplies to reach Europe. The issue at hand, both sides conclude, is if the Russians can smash the NATO force and dictate terms, or if the NATO forces can blunt Russia’s spearheads and cripple the Russians. As the Russians advance on Warsaw, it doesn’t look good…"


    Lo scenario prosegue, ma mi interesserebbe cercare di costruire una nostra evoluzione, con l'aiuto di forumisti esperti, della situazione, magari tenendo in conto anche cose come le rispettive campagne elettorali (ad esempio, come una simile crisi entrerebbe nel dibattito Veltroni-Berlusconi, o Mc-Cain-Clinton-Obama o Zapatero-Rajoy). Sarebbe interessante anche vedere le conseguenze economiche del conflitto, la sua forma (guerra di teatro? escalation in guerra mondiale ? in questo caso, uso di armi nucleari ? ).

    Che dite, ci proviamo ?

    La discussione qui: http://www.politicaonline.net/forum/...00#post7360200

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  2. #2
    Becero Reazionario
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    Predefinito

    Veltroni e Berlusconi si zerbinerebbero entrambi allo zio Sem

 

 

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