Emergenza economia:Spagna e Italia (soprattutto) le due palle al piede nell'UE

[Dragonball (POL)]

European Expansion Accelerates More Than Forecast (Update1)
By Simon Kennedy and Fergal O'Brien


May 15 (Bloomberg) -- European economic growth accelerated more than economists forecast in the first three months of 2008 as stronger expansions in Germany and France masked slowdowns in Spain and Italy.

Gross domestic product in the euro area increased 0.7 percent from the previous three months, when it rose 0.4 percent, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The pace exceeded the 0.5 percent median of 32 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey and the 0.1 percent growth rate in the U.S.

Growth quickened to the fastest pace in 12 years in Germany and was higher than analysts expected in France, providing strength at the core of the euro-area economy as Spain suffered its weakest expansion in almost eight years. That justifies the decision of the European Central Bank to hold off cutting interest rates for now as it tries to conquer inflation.

``After the strong data in the first quarter there is definitely no room for the ECB to cut rates,'' said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.

The ECB has signaled no rush to cut rates having kept its benchmark at a six-year high of 4 percent since June even as the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England lowered borrowing costs. Figures published today showed euro-area inflation eased to 3.3 percent in April from a 16-year high of 3.6 percent in March, still well above the ECB's 2 percent ceiling.

Five Times

Germany's 1.5 percent growth was five times the pace of the prior quarter and signals that it so far has weathered the U.S.- led global slowdown as it benefits from demand in emerging markets and companies streamlining production following the 2001 slump. Hochtief AG, Germany's largest construction company, said today that first-quarter profit more than tripled.

Economists at Commerzbank revised up their forecast for growth in Germany to 2.4 percent this year from 1.8 percent, paving the way for Europe's largest economy to enjoy only its third soft-landing since 1960. Evidence suggests German growth in the first quarter was boosted by a milder-than-usual winter and has since slowed.

At the same time, Spain is mimicking the U.S. as a credit shortage exacerbates a housing slump,while forecasts from the International Monetary Fund show Italy faces the bleakest economic outlook of the entire continent. Grupo Ferrovial SA, the Spanish builder, yesterday said first-quarter profit slumped 83 percent as revenue at its construction arm faltered.

Greater Pinch

The divergence marks a difference from the last slowdown in 2001, which was driven by contractions in the French and German economies, which together account for almost half of the region's gross domestic product. They may not prove invulnerable for much longer as more recent data suggest Europe is feeling a greater pinch from a strong euro, tighter credit, record food and oil prices and slowing export orders.

Confidence in the euro region among executives and consumers declined to the lowest in two and a half years last month, while industrial production fell in March for the first time in four months. Paris-based Pernod Ricard SA, the world's second-largest liquor company, said revenue in the quarter through March was little changed as U.S. consumers cut spending and the dollar weakened.

``The euro-zone economy is already slowing down and the economic powerhouse, Germany, is about to follow,'' said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Groep NV in Brussels. ``With a further deterioration of the economic outlook, we still expect the ECB to shift its focus from inflation towards low growth and cut interest rates in the second half of the year.''

`Only Gradually'

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said last week inflation will remain ``high'' for some time and moderate ``only gradually.''

Germany's first-quarter expansion was more than twice what economists had forecast and was led by companies stepping up spending on machinery and construction. In France, the economy grew 0.6 percent, double the prior quarter's growth and stronger than the 0.4 percent predicted by economists.

Spain's economy grew 0.3 percent from the previous three months, the slowest since the third quarter of 2000 and less than half the 0.8 percent pace of the previous three months. After home sales fell by a quarter in the year to February as mortgage costs rose, banks tightened credit for potential buyers and unemployment surged.

While Italy doesn't report GDP data until May 23, economists say it may already have slipped into a recession. The IMF predicted growth of just 0.3 percent this year compared with its 1.4 percent forecast for the euro area.

From a year earlier, the overall euro-area economy grew 2.2 percent in the first quarter, according to today's report. The figures are the first estimate and the statistics office didn't publish a breakdown of the data.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fergal O'Brien in Dublin at fobrien@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 15, 2008 05:19 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...tVQ&refer=home


Il governo intervenga subito nei limiti delle possibili azioni!

[Dragonball (POL)]

Ue: Almunia, crescita troppo bassa
Per il commissario, e' dovuta a scarsa produttivita'

Ue: Almunia, crescita troppo bassa(ANSA) - BRUXELLES, 15 MAG - 'La crescita in alcuni Paesi dell'Unione europea e' stata troppo bassa'. Lo ha detto il commissario Ue agli affari economici e monetari Joaquin Almunia. Dopo aver ricordato che la crescita economica dell'Europa negli ultimi 10 anni e' stata di circa il 2%, Almunia ha detto che ci si attendeva di piu' e che la scarsa crescita e' dovuta soprattutto al ridotto aumento della produttivita'.

15 Mag 11:06

http://www.borsaitaliana.it/bitApp/n...l.bit?id=68186

E' la produttività il vero nodo: pertanto non lavorare di +,ma fare meglio e produrre di + quando si lavora.
Servono incentivi alle aziende che investono in nuovi macchinari che aumentino la produttività.
Va detto che il sistema delle piccole-micro imprese sfavorisce la produttività,pertanto,anche in questo caso,il governo dovrebbe favorire l'aggregazione e la fusione tra le aziende di modo che crescano di diemnsione.

[Naitmer]

l'euro di prodi e gli extracomunitari stanno rovinando il paese.

[samson]

dicevano che la spagna andasse come un treno?

[sarrebal]

Veramente la crescita in USA nel primo trimestre e' stata dello 0.6% (e non 0.1%)

[Cesare]

Veramente la crescita in USA nel primo trimestre e' stata dello 0.6% (e non 0.1%)

Va detto che nell'economia statunitense una crescita annua sotto l'1% è una quasi recessione, essendo un'economia estremamente flessibile che ha bisogno di restare in corsa.

Comunque ci sono ancora un paio di trimestri prima di fare allarmismi, ora bisogna vedere se e quanto è dovuto ad una resistenza strutturale dell'economia reale e quanto, invece, è dovuto alle iniezioni della FED.

[Dragonball (POL)]

dicevano che la spagna andasse come un treno?

La Spagna nonostante la propaganda sinistra non sta andando per niente bene ed è in piena bolla immobiliare.

[Cesare]

La Spagna nonostante la propaganda sinistra non sta andando per niente bene ed è in piena bolla immobiliare.

Impressionante che a Barcellona avevano avviato la costruzione di una città parallela (30-40 palazzi di grosse dimensioni in un quartiere ex novo, dove prima c'era il deserto) ma la costruzione è stata interrotta a metà, poiché nessuno voleva comprare quelle case.

E' impressionante perché è una città fantasma, con alcuni palazzi incompleti, disabitata; una scena assurda che neanche nei film di fantascienza post-apocalitici si è vista.

Tra l'altro la Spagna sta vivendo una crisi idrica non di poco conto, Barcellona è rifornita da navi che trasportano acqua dato che le condutture e relativi bacini non sono più sufficienti.

[Immanuel (POL)]

dicevano che la spagna andasse come un treno?

In realtà noi come le lumache, loro come le tartarughe.

[Naitmer]

la spagna è un paese molto, ma molto più arretrato dell'Italia e con Zapatero non puo' che migliorare. L'italia al confronto e come la svizzera.