Il Dollaro

[Airbus]

io devo cambiare da euroa dollaro a già adesso a 1,32 la situazione è critica.


cazz come andava bene quand'era 1,54...


non è che c'è il rischio che scenda ancora?

[Oli]

I cambi salgono e scendono. Il $/€ è passato da 0,75 a 1,60. E continueranno a variare, per sempre.
Non ci vedo nulla di strano.

[ilqualunquista]

Bill Murphy dal Midas sul dollaro:

The selling of EVERYTHING to raise cash and stop further losses continues to escalate. The extent to which commodity prices are dropping, across the board, is breathtaking. The words that come to my mind are out of control. A process has been set in motion here which continues to feed on itself, especially when it comes to the soaring dollar, which is having a major effect on the commodity price slaughter.

It was my thinking, and that of other colleagues in the GATA camp, that the initial turning of the dollar was orchestrated to combat the financial fiasco in the US which began to surface earlier this year. Various swap operations to support the dollar were announced publicly and then you have Comrade Paulson declaring he would do whatever it took to maintain stability.

Way back then the US was afraid of a dollar collapse, one which might cause an exodus of foreigners from our Treasury market … stock market too. Thus, to maintain confidence in the US, they engineered a dollar rally and a crushing of the gold price.

However, the dollar is rising so fast that Paulson’s efforts seem to be now having an adverse effect. "Be careful for what you wish for" comes to mind. The incredible drop in commodity prices has begun to have a destabilizing effect on many companies and has begun to severely crimp a very healthy part of our economy, the export sector.

Why is the dollar going so berserk, at a time when the US is the one going berserk printing money and pouring liquidity into our financial system? Jesse, as usual, has some keen insight in this casual conversation…

I must admit I did not anticipate the short squeeze in US dollars in Europe.

This is because I never understood that on the commercial side, a huge number of deposits and assets were being held by the banks and their private customers. This is like the old 'gold standard' being written in US contracts prior to the revocation of the gold standard.

This is not the same as the US being the 'reserve currency' which is holdings by the central banks.

What happened, in a nutshell, is the Euro banks invested heavily in dollar denominated fraudulent assets using the dollars which depositors placed with them, and in turn owe them those deposits in dollars. This is not screened by forex.

As the dollar assets crumbled, the banks still owed their customers their deposited amounts in dollars. As the depositors panic and withdraw their dollars, there is a short squeeze, since the banks must convert euros to dollars.

Its really just that simple. I just never understood the extent to which non-US private companies were holding dollar assets. I had mistakenly assumed their were converting them to domestic currency and the dollars were held by the foreign CB.

When I found this out, I knew where to look in the BIS accounts and wrote the whole thing up and documented it. The correlation with dollar strength based on European banking distress is uncanny. I wish the BIS published their books more often because it would let me peg the top in the dollar with a lot of accuracy.

As it is, I have to rely on LIBOR $ and TED, which is an indication but not as good as the actual bank books.

***

Seems to me that once all this shortcovering is finished, the dollar is going to make like "The Roadrunner," as in the old cartoon, when he ran and ran and ran, only to suddenly end up with legs churning while speeding over a cliff ... straight down it was.

As for gold, word to me, via a Swiss banker, is the central banks are quietly dumping gold, for the reasons we are all too familiar with. This makes sense because how much pressure the PM Fix has come under day after day. When he says "banks," that might just mean the US. All he knows is that it is official sector selling.

[sarrebal]

E' a 1.27 oggi e tornera'in parita' per fine anno, primavera massimo.
Queste sono le previsioni piu' o meno unanimi.

[Decima Regio]

The empire strikes back, ancora per poco pero´. Deflazione e moneta di carta o di bit? Non dura a lungo.

Non sprecare energie a tentar di spiegargli .... per dirla con l'Aquinate nolite praebere margaritas vestras ante porcos .

A questo punto, al massimo può valer la pena di provare ad educare e preparare al mondo incipiente qualche giovanissimo. L'unico pregio di questo penoso passaggio .... è la spedita marcia dei decerebrati verso l'estinzione fisica.

[Abbott (POL)]

Il mondo di carta verso la vittoria

[Feliks]

E' a 1.27 oggi e tornera'in parita' per fine anno, primavera massimo.
Queste sono le previsioni piu' o meno unanimi.

unanimi di chi?

[ART]

[errore postaggio]

[ART]

Il cambio in partenza ( 31 - 12 - 2001 ) era 1.12184

-N-

L'euro è nato l' 1/1/1999 col valore di 1,1667: al suo primo spostamento dal valore iniziale di nascita è passato a 1.1797 denaro e 1,1800 lettera.

[ART]

E ripeto che il cambio con il dollaro e le altre valute estere non fu definito arbitrariamente (ovviamente) ma fu stabilito che equivalesse 1:1 l'ECU, il paniere di divise europee che è stato sostuito dall'euro. La quotazione del 1/1/1998 è appunto l'ultima quotazione dell'ECU.

Esatto, tanne che il particolare della data: era il 31/12/1998 quando l'ECU spirò.