Originariamente Scritto da
MarinoBuia
scritta il 7 gennaio, all'UBS (unione banche svizzere) già sapevano che renzi sarebbe diventato pdc
On the trade side, the recession was instrumental in turning
around Italy's current account deficit, which in turn has
substantially reduced the dependence of the Italian economy on
foreign investors. A significant part of this improvement, however,
came about because imports declined due to the recession, a
situation that should reverse. Unfortunately, Italy has failed to
adjust its relative unit labor costs, which are too high given that
past wage increases were not in line with productivity gains. In
fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that a
depreciation of 10% is necessary to fix the competitiveness issue.
Although measures to address it are a key priority of
Renzi, he will
likely face an uphill battle. Overall, we expect the net trade
contribution to become much smaller as the economy recovers.
http://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth/_jcr...14-outlook.pdf