Perche' gli studenti americani possono far saltare il capitalismo globale

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ComeDonChisciotte - PERCHE' GLI STUDENTI AMERICANI POSSONO FAR SALTARE IL CAPITALISMO GLOBALE
PERCHE' GLI STUDENTI AMERICANI POSSONO FAR SALTARE IL CAPITALISMO GLOBALE
Postato il Venerdì, 29 agosto @ 23:10:00 BST di davide




FONTE: SENZASOSTE.IT
Eccoci di fronte ad una previsione che mancava dagli anni '70, da prima ancora della codifica del concetto di globalizzazione nelle scienze sociali: gli studenti americani possono far saltare il capitalismo globale.
Cosa è accaduto? Un clone di Angela Davis, con tanto di taglio di capelli afro dell'epoca e pantaloni a zampa di elefante, ha preso la testa delle masse giovanili americane? Occupy in segreto ha conquistato le metropoli? Una rete clandestina di nerd è pronta a far scattare il piano di insurrezione tecnologica in America mettendo Ferguson come capitale?


Niente di tutto questo. Più semplicemente, la bolla dei prestiti studenteschi americani può esplodere facendo saltare Wall Street prima e, subito dopo, il capitalismo globale. Fantasie? Non si direbbe. Delle bolle successive a quella dei mutui se ne parla dal 2008. Candidate numero uno: quella delle carte di credito americane e quella dei prestiti studenteschi. Quest'ultima sembra proprio stia maturando con un tasso di insolvenza, nella restituzione dei prestiti studenteschi (in Usa un metodo inevitabile per poter studiare, al prezzo di tassi di interesse da usura), vicino alla soglia di rischio.
Cosa accade nella borsa quando un prestito, nel mondo reale, non viene rimborsato? Una cosina molto semplice: che tutti gli innumerevoli prodotti finanziari legati a questo prestito, sparsi in tutto il mondo, saltano a causa del fatto che il debito reale non è più rimborsabile. Salta il settore americano in questione, salta la finanza Usa correlata e, botto ancor più grosso, tutto il mondo globale legato ai prodotti della finanza Usa che è saltata a causa di quel settore. È accaduto nel 2008, quando dai mutui non si rientrava più (infatti sono fallite le compagnie dei mutui e una enorme compagnia che produceva prodotti finanziari anche per i mutui, Lehman Brothers, compagnie assicurative etc.) può accadere ancora oggi con nuovi protagonisti: gli studenti o, meglio, gli ex-studenti entrati in un mercato di lavoro privo di senso che non permette né di vivere decentemente né di liberarsi dei debiti. La dimensione del problema? Maggiore di quelle di quella dei subprime. Come da articolo citato in fondo, a metà anni 2000 negli Stati Uniti i mutui subprime raccoglievano un importo totale di 600 miliardi di dollari. Qui siamo abbondantemente oltre il trillione di dollari già con un tasso di insolvenza del 22 per cento mentre, a metà anni 2000, il tasso di insolvenza dei subprime era al 15.
La Federal Reserve e il Tesoro americani devono quindi lavorare parecchio per impedire un botto che può essere drammatico per il capitalismo globale. Perché il pianeta è affollato di prodotti finanziari garantiti da soggetti che hanno investimenti strategici negli student loans.
Chi l'ha detto quindi che lo storico antagonismo al capitale di operai e studenti è defunto? Ieri gli operai, con i mutui per la casa, oggi gli studenti, con i prestiti per lo studio, e il capitale va in ginocchio. Astuzia della storia: anche quando pacificati, questi soggetti sono una mina per il capitale.

Redazione

Fonte: Senzasoste.it - Periodico Livornese - Senza Soste
Link:Perché gli studenti americani possono far saltare il capitalismo globale - Senza Soste
29.08.2014

La fonte:

I nuovi subprime (alla riscossa)

[Amati75]

A Google search for student loan crisis returns 12,100,000 items, most of them bemoaning the crushing debt of today’s students and demanding action to address the problem. The Huffington Post even has a special page collecting the dozens of articles it has published under the heading of “Student Loan Crisis.” There is a non-profit named Student Debt Crisis. Articles have even blamed the rising student debt load for a fall in housing demand among younger buyers. Yet, an unbiased look at the data suggests there is no student loan debt crisis.
A recent Brookings Institution study by Beth Akers and Matthew Chingos carefully compared debt, education, and income levels from 1989 through 2010. They find that debt levels are rising more slowly than the income gain from a college degree, that debt payment burdens are actually falling thanks to lower interest rates, and that most of the really large debt amounts belong to those with graduate degrees who are most able to pay for such large of debt loads.
The average earnings increment for a college degree holder over a person with only a high school degree is currently $12,000 per year for 23-25 year olds. That means that a newly-minted college graduate with an average amount of student debt, $29,000, could pay off her total debt in three years using her extra earnings. She would then have the rest of her life to enjoy her higher income for whatever saving or spending purposes she chose.
While the above example may seem to downplay the problem given everything you have likely read about the supposed student debt crisis, my example actually makes things seem worse than they actually are. The $29,000 is the average debt loan for all those with student loan debt. When Akers and Chingos focus in on households headed by people aged from 20 to 40, they find that only 36 percent of those households have any student loan debt; those households that do, have on average only $17,916 per adult in student loan debt.
Making things even better, the average is inflated by a few people with high student loan balances. Within that demographic of households headed by 20-40 year olds, the median loan balance (half owe more, half owe less; again, for those with balances) is only $8,500.


That means only 18 percent (half of the 36 percent with debt) of young families have student loan balances of more than $8,500 per adult. That does not sound like a crisis. Over 80 percent of young households have student loan debt considerably less than an average car loan. Most could pay off their loans in one or two years post-graduation if they held their spending down and devoted their new, higher earnings to student loan debt reduction.
The reality is the student loan debt problem is confined to a small group of people. Within the young households that Akers and Chingos analyzed only 4 percent have student loan debt of over $36,000 per adult. If we look just at the young households that have student loan debt, 11 percent have over $36,000 per adult. That means 96 percent of these young households have either no student loan debt or an amount that should be manageable as long as those incurring the debt complete a degree or at least learn enough to boost their incomes.
If we look inside the households with higher debt levels, the picture is encouraging yet again. Of those young households with over $50,000 in student loan debt, 67 percent of them have somebody with a graduate degree. Combining a bunch of these percentages tells us that only about one percent of households headed by somebody aged 20 to 40 have a student loan balance over $50,000 per adult without a graduate degree to show for all that debt. In other words, most of those with big balances have the earning power to pay those loans off.
In fact, while we have been told things are getting worse, the student debt burden has actually been getting lighter on average. When measured by monthly payment as a percentage of monthly income, student loan payments have dropped from 15 to 7 percent on average since 1989. Even better, the median student loan payment is currently less than 4 percent of household income.
A growing chorus on the left is calling for student loan forgiveness of one form or another. In fact, President Obama just moved to expand the Pay-As-You-Earn program which caps payments at 10 percent of discretionary spending (roughly your income minus the poverty line for your family size) and wipes out any debt remaining after 20 years (10 if you are employed by government or in public service).
The data suggest there is no crisis demanding such a policy; rather, most student loan borrowers are likely to be paying less than 10 percent of their income already. Calls to reduce the payment burden of student loans are simply part of a larger movement to make more things in this country free (meaning paid for by somebody else).

Income redistribution has been expanding rapidly as liberals invent new, creative ways to shift payment from the true customers onto somebody else. If they want to make a case for greater subsidies (and, therefore, income redistribution) in order to make college educations less expensive to those getting the education, let them make that case. If they want to push reform of some for-profit colleges that are exploiting both students and taxpayers by taking the loan proceeds and delivering very little education and even fewer degrees, I am with you. But don’t claim there is a student loan debt crisis just to gain support for your policy agenda.

College students appear in almost all cases to be using student loans responsibly. Let’s not insult their intelligence in order to accomplish an unrelated desire for income redistribution at every turn.

The Student Debt Crisis Is Being Manufactured To Justify Debt Forgiveness - Forbes