5 Armi Cinesi che gli USA dovrebbero temere e viceversa

[Amati75]

Five Chinese Weapons of War America Should Fear

In the last twenty years, China has quickly ascended from a regional to global military power. A generation ago, the People’s Liberation Army was armed with antiquated weapons and oriented towards a manpower-intensive “People’s War”. In the intervening period China has gone from a green to blue water navy, the air force is actively developing so-called fifth-generation fighters, and the army has been extensively modernized.
A vast array of new Chinese weapons are under development, some alarming in their potential.


China’s neighbors and the United States are observing China’s buildup with interest and concern. China is showing itself to be particularly interested in projecting military power in support of territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. Weapons that empower China to take decisive military action in support of such claims could escalate a regional crisis into a larger one involving Washington.
China recognizes the potential for conflict with the United States, however small, and is planning accordingly. China is pouring resources into weapons specifically designed to target American forces and limit their ability to operate near the Chinese mainland. These “anti-access, area-denial” (A2/AD) weaponshave the potential to exclude American forces from China’s innermost defense zone: the so-called “First Island Chain” consisting of the Kuril Islands, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Borneo.
The chances of a shooting war between China and the United States are remote, and neither is set on war with the other. However, the extent to which the interests contradict or compete with each another means war cannot be entirely ruled out. With that in mind, here are the five Chinese weapons the United States fears most.
DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile
The most dangerous weapon to U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific region is the Dong Feng-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM). Somewhat prematurely dubbed “the Carrier Killer”, the DF-21D is a medium-range ballistic missile specifically designed to attack American aircraft carriers, skirting the defenses of a U.S. naval task force to attack ships from above at hypersonic speeds.
DF-21D is a land-based system, with an estimated range of up to 1,500+km. Once launched, the missile would release a reentry vehicle traveling at speeds of up to Mach 10-12. The resulting velocity and kinetic energy—to say nothing of the reentry vehicle’s payload—would cause serious damage to even the largest naval vessels. Nobody knows for sure, but it is believed direct hits from a DF-21D could be enough to put an aircraft carrier out of action, or even sink it.


Mounted on a wheeled transporter and launcher, the DF-21D would be road-mobile and thus extremely hard to locate before launch. The reentry vehicle’s hypersonic speed would make it difficult—but not impossible—to shoot down.
The DF-21D has an Achilles’ heel, the so-called “kill chain” of sensors, relay stations, and command and control centers required to detect, identify, track, and hit a ship with a ballistic missile. There are many links in the chain leading to a successful DF-21D launch, and breaking just one would interrupt the entire process.
China would have to devote considerable reconnaissance assets to killing a carrier and maritime surveillance is not China’s strong suit. Land-based, over-the-horizon radars are imprecise, and maritime patrol aircraft, UAVs and submarines will be vulnerable to the carrier’s air wing. Only China’s satellites have the ability to provide tracking data, and those can be jammed or otherwise disabled.
The DF-21D was allegedly tested in early 2013, when two craters were observed in an outline of an aircraft carrier in the Gobi Desert.
The DF-21D weapon may be operational, but the kill chain is likely not, and it may be years before the entire system is fully operational. Still, the prospect of a weapon that can kill 5,600 Americans, destroy seventy aircraft, and destroy a pillar of American power projection worldwide is a sobering one to contemplate.
Chengdu J-20 Fighter
China’s first fifth-generation fighter, the J-20 is a large, twin-engine aircraft currently in the demonstrator phase. The J-20’s mission set is unknown, but the aircraft’s robust design seems to support it going in a number of different directions. The aircraft promises to be long-range, fast- and low-observable—if not outright stealthy. China has built three prototypes, the latest flew in early March 2014. The aircraft is projected to enter service some time around 2020.


A striking, delta-winged design complemented by large forward canards and a twin tail, the J-20 is China’s most ambitious aircraft project ever. The aircraft is speculated to mount a modern AESA phased array radar, an electro-optical targeting system. The two large internal weapons bays could conceivably carry a payload of air-to-air, land attack or anti-ship missiles.
The most obvious role for the J-20 is as an air superiority fighter. The J-20’s long range means the fighter can operate farther off China’s coast, intercepting attack and bomber aircraft including F/A-18 fighter bombers and B-1 and B-2 bombers. As a long-range fighter, the J-20 could also patrol disputed territories, particularly in support of China’s recently declared Air Defense Identification Zone.


China could also use the the J-20 to target American support aircraft. Airborne early warning aircraft such as the E-3 Sentry and E-2C Hawkeye and aerial refueling aircraft such as the KC-135 and KC-130 are key assets that allow American forces to operate at long ranges. J-20 fighters equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles could attempt to shoot these aircraft down, crippling American and allied air forces.
Another possible role for the J-20 would be to attack American ships and bases in the Asia-Pacific. Groups of radar-evading J-20 fighters carrying land-attack missiles could precede a Chinese conventional ballistic missile strike, taking out American surface-to-air missile batteries, air bases, radar stations, and command and control targets across the Pacific. The strike would suppress American defenses and pave the way for conventional ballistic missiles strikes.
Time will tell what direction—or directions—the J-20 will take. Not knowing what the J-20 is designed to do, however, is an unwelcome unknown in a world with a twenty-year lead time on fighter jets.
Anti-Satellite Weaponry
For decades, American space-based military assets have given U.S. forces a considerable advantage on the battlefield. Satellites are essential to the American way of war. This is especially true in the Asia-Pacific, where distances from the continental United States are measured in thousands of miles.
China has at least an operational weapon, the SC-19. A derivative of the DF-21, the SC-19 ballistic missile is equipped with the KT-2 (a kinetic kill vehicle). Launched into space, the KT-2 is guided to target by infrared sensors. The KT-2 does not have an explosive warhead but destroys enemy satellites by colliding with them.
In 2007, an KT-2 struck and destroyed an aging Chinese satellite. In May 2013 China launched what it described as a “sounding rocket” carrying high-altitude experiments. U.S. intelligence believes that this was actually an SC-19/KT-2 test. The SC-19 is believed to be capable of reaching medium earth orbit, which would put American GPS navigation satellites at risk.


Chinese ASAT weapons could target a variety of American satellites, including intelligence collection, communications, and navigation satellites. The loss of such satellites would make it difficult to perform reconnaissance missions over China. It would also interfere with air, land and sea navigation, slow communications, and prevent the use of GPS-guided weapons.
Evidence suggests that China intends to put the SC-19 missile on wheeled transporters and launchers. With more than 1.86 million miles of paved roads in China, locating and destroying mobile Chinese ASAT weapons would extremely difficult.
The use of anti-satellite weaponry by China in any future conflict would be roundly denounced. Still, as dependent as U.S. forces are on satellites the temptation to take the first shot in space would be difficult to resist.
Type 071 Landing Platform Dock
Power projection is becoming increasingly important to China, particularly to enforce territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. China’s ability to land amphibious troops on some island chains such as the Senkaku, Paracel and Spratly islands could embolden the leadership to do exactly that.
China has three amphibious assault ships of the Type 071 class, Kunlunshan, Jinggangshan and Changbaishan. The three ships are what western naval observers would call China’s “Gator Navy”: ships designed to transport and land marines on hostile shores. Three more Type 071s are expected, as well as six amphibious ships with full-length flight decks like the American Wasp-class.
The three Type 071 ships were built by the Hudong-Zhonghua shipyards of Shanghai. Each ship displaces 20,000 tons and is nearly 700 feet long. The 071 class can transport up to a battalion of marines—roughly 400 to 800 troops—and up to eighteen armored vehicles.
The ships have a flight deck capable of simultaneously operating two W-9 troop-carrying helicopters, and can store another four in a large hangar. The ships also have a very long well deck that can store and launch amphibious vehicles, rigid-hulled inflatable boats, and four Chinese troop-carrying hovercraft similar to the American LCAC.


China’s 071 amphibious transports are based with China’s South Seas Fleet, where they can be used to intimidate—or invade—Taiwan. However, like Western navies, China has been quick to embrace their use in other roles. In addition to assaulting coastlines and islands, Gators can also serve in the command and control, disaster relief and humanitarian assistance roles. One transport, Jinggangshan, is currently in the Indian Ocean as part of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 recovery effort.
A lone amphibious ship such as Jinggangshan is not worrisome. However, it represents the kind of expeditionary capability that an adventurous China could use to escalate a territorial dispute into a very dangerous situation.


Offensive Cyber Operations
The People’s Liberation Army believes establishing “electronic dominance” early on is critical to their success in a future conflict. Of the five Chinese weapons that America fears the most, the most enigmatic is China’s ability to mount offensive cyber operations.
Offensive cyber operations are defined by a wide spectrum of activity, from psychological operations to destroying enemy equipment and infrastructure. China’s electronic army might achieve that dominance by include seizing control of communications networks, planting harmful software, and even conducting online disinformation campaigns. Offensive cyber is best used in conjunction with traditional military operations, to present another front. For example, Chinese cyber operations could disrupt enemy computer networks or jam enemy communications prior to an aircraft and missile attack.
Detached from traditional military ideas of operational range, Chinese offensive cyber operations could be used against military or civilian targets without regard to geographic location. Offensive cyber operations are also the only weapon on this list that can strike the American homeland.
China’s main cyber unit appears to be the General Staff Department, Third Department. Roughly analogous to the U.S. National Security Agency, the Third Department may have as many as 130,000 personnel, attached to Chinese military units, twelve operational bureaus, and three research institutes. Within the Third Department is the Second Bureau, also known as 61398 Unit, tasked for operations involving the United States.
According to the Project 2049 Institute the General Staff Department, Fourth Department, traditionally tasked with electronic warfare and signals collection, may be involved in offensive cyber operations. The People’s Liberation Army’s concept of “integrated network and electronic warfare” makes it clear that China considers jamming enemy computer networks and jamming battlefield electronics related activities. The Chinese military links cyber operations to traditional forms of electronic warfare in ways the United States often does not.


Despite the amount of manpower devoted to China’s cyber capabilities, capabilities remain relatively unsophisticated. There is no sign, for example, that China is capable of such offensive cyber weapons as Stuxnet. Desmond Ball, a professor at Australian National University, argues that China’s leadership is well aware of their shortcomings in cyber warfare and this has “led to the adoption of a pre-emptive strategy…in which China’s very destructive but relatively unsophisticated cyber-warfare capabilities are unleashed at the very outset of prospective conflicts.”
The United States may be a leader in Internet and networking technologies, but the rapid development pace of both means that potential exploits will be constant and ever-changing. As both technologies continue to penetrate American society and the U.S. Military, there will be more opportunities for an adversary to exploit the cyber realm in a future conflict.
War between the United States and China is not inevitable any more than war with the Soviet Union was inevitable. There are quite a few good reasons that a great power war is even less likely than it was during the Cold War, particularly the state of mutually beneficial economic interdependence between the United States and China. That China should develop weapons such as these shouldn’t be any great surprise; it is logical from their perspective to prepare to engage the United States even without the intention of war.
These five weapons do not make war more likely—rather, they may give self-conscious China the confidence to cooperate with its neighbors and the United States. Alternately, they may tempt China to decisively settle longstanding claims—or create new ones. One thing is for certain: they put the ball in China’s court.
Kyle Mizokami is a writer based in San Francisco who has appeared in The Diplomat, Foreign Policy, War is Boring and The Daily Beast. In 2009 he cofounded the defense and security blog Japan Security Watch. This is his debut article for The National Interest.

Five Chinese Weapons of War America Should Fear | The National Interest

E VICEVERSA:


Five American Weapons of War China Should Fear

Last week, I discussed on these pages the five Chinese weapons Washington fears most. Some of the weapons, such as the Type 071 amphibious ship and Chinese cyber weapons were unfamiliar to many readers. This week we’re turning the list around and discussing the five American weapons that China likely fears most.
As a superpower, the United States has maintained a formidable, technologically advanced military for decades. While the Chinese weapons highlighted last week were often designed with the United States in mind, none of the weapons this week were explicitly designed to fight China. In fact, many of the weapons featured here were first designed during the Cold War and predate China’s military rise.


Again, it’s important to point out that the chances of war between the United States and China are remote. There is too much advantage for both countries in maintaining the status quo of a strong economic relationship (roughly $500 billion in bilateral trade) and cordial—if stiff—diplomatic ties. A war would be a political, economic, and military disaster for both sides.
Ford-class Aircraft Carriers
Since the end of the Second World War, the aircraft carrier has been the symbol of American power projection. American carriers typically displace up to 100,000 tons fully loaded. The embarked carrier air wing typically includes four squadrons of F/A-18C Hornet or F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet strike fighters (up to fifty-two aircraft total), four or five EA-6B Prowler or EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft, approximately a dozen MH-60 Seahawks, and a pair of C-2 Greyhound carrier onboard delivery aircraft.
The Ford-class, America’s latest class of aircraft carriers (the first of which is set to the join the U.S. Navy in 2016), is the weapons system China fears most. The mix of aircraft onboard a carrier makes it capable of a wide variety of missions, including air superiority, land attack, anti-ship and anti-submarine warfare. Modern aircraft carriers represent a threat not only to Chinese naval and air forces away from China, but could strike China itself.
Aircraft carriers such as the USS Ford are also visible reminders of Chinese technological inferiority. From the nuclear reactors to electromagnetic catapults systems designed to hurl aircraft into the air to the integrated anti-air warfare system, American carriers represent a showcase of technologies that China hasn’t mastered. Last summer, while China was proudly certifying its first pilots and deck crew to operate from the carrier Liaoning, the historic event was undercut by news of an American X-47B unmanned drone landing for the first time on the carrier USS George Bush.


American aircraft carriers are symbols to China of American intrusion into its sphere of influence. In 1996, in response to Chinese missile launches near Taiwan, the USS Nimitz and USS Independence carrier battle groups were sent into the Taiwan Strait. There was nothing the Chinese military could have done to prevent the carriers from entering the strait. This humiliation deeply affected Chinese thinking, and was almost certainly the impetus for the development of weapons such as the DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile or ASBM.
F-22 Raptor
The F-22 Raptor is currently the only operational fifth generation fighter in the world. A stealthy, single-seat fighter with ground attack, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare capabilities, the F-22 is capable of cruising at Mach 1.82 (1,220 miles an hour) without afterburner. The F-22 carries up to two AIM-9X short-range and six AIM-120 medium range anti-aircraft missiles in the fighter role, and can carry precision-guided air to ground weapons in the ground attack role.
China fears the F-22 because there is nothing like it in China’s arsenal. For the foreseeable future the F-22 will dominate the air environment wherever it is sent. China’s existing fighters, the indigenous J-10 and various derivatives of the Su-27 Flanker design (J-11, J-16, Su-30MKK) are not stealthy, and in a beyond visual range battle would be at a disadvantage against the F-22.
In a shooting war, the F-22 Raptor could cripple the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) by stripping away support aircraft that allow Chinese fighters and bombers to fly long distances. F-22s could evade Chinese combat air patrol sweeps and engage airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft such as the KJ-2000, and midair refueling aircraft such as the Xian H-6. Chinese aircraft would then be limited to whatever fuel they can carry, and Chinese early warning coverage would be limited to mainland radar installations.
The ground attack and electronic warfare capabilities of the F-22 would also pose a problem for the PLAAF. The F-22’s ability to evade radar en route to bombing targets on the ground makes it a platform that can likely penetrate Chinese air defenses. The F-22’s sensor suite makes it capable of quietly collecting enemy data, such as radio and radar emissions, without an adversary knowing it was in the area. This capability could even be useful in peacetime for intelligence collection purposes.


China does have fifth generation fighter aircraft in development to counter the F-22. The J-20, whose development path is uncertain, may emerge as a fighter to challenge the F-22. The J-31 is another fifth generation design. Development prototypes of both aircraft are currently flying, but it may be another decade before either reach operational status. In the meantime, China is very exposed to the F-22 threat, and there’s not a whole lot it can do about it.
Virginia-class Submarine


The Virginia-class attack submarines are the most advanced nuclear submarines in the world. First introduced in 2004, the Virginia-class submarines displace 7,800 tons and are powered by a single S9G nuclear reactor that gives each unlimited range. The submarines are not only capable of attacking enemy ships and submarines but are capable of launching cruise missile attacks, serving as a mother ship for unmanned undersea vehicles, supporting naval special operations forces, and collecting intelligence.
The submarines are armed with four torpedo tubes armed with a mixture of Mk.48 guided torpedoes and Sub-Harpoon anti-ship missiles. In addition to torpedo tube armament, the Virginia class has 12 vertical launch silos for Tomahawk land-attack long range cruise missiles. The submarines can also transport U.S. Navy SEALs and other naval special forces.
China fears the Virginia class submarines because it has zero operational experience in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and a woefully insufficient ASW capability. None of China’s submarines, including the Shang nuclear or Yuan class diesel electric boats can match the Virginia class in sensors, stealth, and armament and would be at a distinct disadvantage in a one on one undersea duel. China has approximately three Y-8 long-range maritime patrol aircraft in the same class as the western P-3C Orion. Japan, by contrast has roughly 100 P-3C Orions, and considers ASW so important it is developing its own replacement for the aging Orion.
Most if not all of China’s surface fleet, including the carrier Liaoning, have anti-submarine weapons, but they are of unknown quality and many, such as ASW torpedoes, are copies of older western and Soviet designs. China is currently working to improve its ASW capabilities, including building up to 20 Type 054A frigates armed with modern sonars, anti-submarine barrel mortars, torpedoes, and ASW helicopters. An anti-submarine variant of the Type 056 corvette equipped with an advanced towed sonar array is rumored to be under production. Beijing is also hard at work developing an ocean-floor surveillance network.
Eleven Virginia-class submarines are currently in service, with a projected overall buy of at least thirty submarines. The Virginia class represents an exceptional capability pointed against an exceptional vulnerability. In a future conflict with China, the Virginia submarines could punch well above their weight.

B-2 Spirit

One of the most recognizable weapons in the world, the bat-winged B-2 Spirit bomber is also one of the deadliest. Originally conceived as a strategic nuclear bomber, the B-2 was modified at the end of the Cold War to also serve as a conventional bomber. The B-2’s ability to penetrate air defense networks, travel up to 6,000 miles without refueling, and carry up to forty tons of satellite-guided bombs make it possibly the most lethal weapon system currently in existence.
The B-2 is fearsome to Beijing as it is undetectable and can reach targets anywhere in China. The B-2 can take off from Andersen Air Force Base on the island of Guam and strike targets from Xinjiang to Shanghai. If the United States and China were to go to war in the Western Pacific, China could expect strikes anywhere within its borders.
This has far-reaching implications. No part of China would be safe. Any airbase, ammunition depot, rail station, power facility, or port could be attacked. The amount of airspace China would have to defend increases dramatically, and China would have to spread out its force of 296 Su-27 and Su-35 fighters to cover the entire country. Even then, detection and interception would be far from guaranteed.
The B-2 is yet another weapons system that illustrates the many one-sided advantages the United States possesses. In any hypothetical conflict with the United States, China could not hope to attack the U.S. mainland with anything but cyber and nuclear weapons. The B-2 has no equivalent in Chinese arsenals, although to be fair a strategic bomber has never been a Chinese priority. There are rumors of a stealth bomber under development in China, but so far nothing tangible has appeared.
Unlike the other weapons on this list, the B-2 bomber has already attacked Chinese territory--technically. The B-2 has name recognition in China for having mistakenly attacked the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during NATO’s 1999 air campaign against Yugoslavia. Three Chinese citizens were killed and 20 wounded in what the Chinese government called a “barbarian act”. The bombing set back U.S.-Chinese relations and ignited considerable anti-American sentiment in China.
F-35 Lightning II

The F-35 Lightning II is America’s next generation fighter-bomber meant to replace existing aircraft such as the F-16, F/A-18C, and A-10. Maligned for being over budget and behind schedule, the F-35 strike fighter has had a rocky development history. Still, if the F-35 does indeed eventually work as advertised it will be a formidable aircraft.


The sheer number of F-35s in service will be problematic for Beijing. Although the U.S. Air Force’s campaign to make every new fighter a fifth generation fighter has been enormously expensive and resulted in an aging fighter fleet, an all-stealth fighter fleet does complicate matters for potential adversaries.
The F-35 will extend China’s stealth problem. In any future conflict, China would already likely see F-22 Raptors based at Kadena Air Base on the island of Okinawa. U.S. Air Force F-16C fighters at Misawa Air Base in northern Japan will likely be replaced with F-35As. The increased range of the F-35 over the F-16 means that fighters from Misawa could theoretically strike the Chinese mainland with standoff weapons. Further complicating the issue for Beijing, some of China’s other potential adversaries, such as Australia, will also be flying F-35s.

All of China’s air defenses, from AEW aircraft to surface to air missiles guarding aircraft carriers to man-portable systems, would have to be optimized against stealth aircraft. Not even the United States is properly prepared for such a threat. While aircraft such as the F-35 are extremely expensive, an all-stealth force does push adversaries to invest in expensive upgrades of their air defenses.


Finally, like the F-22 Raptor, the F-35 has an advanced suite of sensors that add intelligence collection, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare capabilities. The F-35’s AN/AAQ-37 Distributed Aperture System is reportedly capable of tracking ballistic missiles and other targets at ranges exceeding 800 miles, while the APG-81 radar system can map terrain and enemy forces on the ground. These capabilities would be useful not only in wartime, but peacetime as well.
Kyle Mizokami is a writer based in San Francisco who has appeared in The Diplomat, Foreign Policy, War is Boring and The Daily Beast. In 2009 he cofounded the defense and security blog Japan Security Watch. Follow him on Twitter: @KyleMizokami.

Five American Weapons of War China Should Fear | The National Interest

[HiroTome]

Ho letto solo una parte dell'articolo perche ritengo i cinesi troppo indietro, i loro aerei furtivi mi sembrano dei bluff, i motori sono i vecchi propulsori Russi, non so se sono in grado di ingegnerizzare un aereo in materiali compositi con annegati materiali antiradar, non credo proprio, stanno facendo una gran fatica i russi.
Vernici antiradar, non avendoli ancora disponibili il T50 e' normalmente verniciato, i cinesi per farlo sembrare piu' stealth lo hanno dipinto di nero, ma e' normale vernice, questo secondo me' la dice lunga.
Non sono competente sulle navi.
I missili cinesi sono copiati o modificati dai modelli russi, quando hanno provato con qualcosa di autonomo si sono piantati.
F-22, dopo uno sviluppo lunghissimo e' uscito di produzione dopo circa 180 aerei costruiti, dei quali attualmente meno della meta' utilizzabili, in attesa degli aggiornamenti per gli altri.
Comunque un numero assolutamente insufficiente.
B2, 20-21 costruiti 16 abilitati al volo uno perso in un incidente.
F-22 e B2 sono dimostratori tecnologici, dimostratisi economicamente insostenibili.
F-35, dopo l'esperinza dell F-22, per renderlo sostenibile come costo l'hanno dovuto fare monomotore, quindi troppo piccolo per poter essere furtivo come l'F-22, difatti ha una capacita' di penetrazione molto piu' bassa, i nuovo radar russi vhf lo rendono tracciabile alla stessa distanza di un qualunque altro aereo, in compenso ha catteristiche dinamiche di volo insufficienti.
Fusione dei dati dell'F-35, intanto aspettiamo che funzioni, perche attualmente causa bachi del software, possono volare in formazione di due.
Controllo a 360 gradi, avviene in funzione aria-terra non serve per confronto aria-aria, capacita di difesa elettronica bassa, la US Navy difatti pensava di farli scortare dai Growler.

[Metabo]

Tolti i sottomarini virginia che sono "tra i più" moderni al mondo, le grandi portaeri sono solo grandi bersagli.