"Produzione petrolio negli Stati Uniti: Game Over" - dice FORBES

[Shiiva]

Forbes Welcome

U.S. oil production has entered the end game with output forecast to plummet as drilling dries up and banks foreclose on oil companies teetering on the brink of insolvency.
Long predicted as a natural development after the 2014 start of the collapse in the oil price the inevitable has been delayed by drillers squeezing every drop out of their wells but that game is all but over.
From a peak of more than 9.5 million barrels a day early last year current output has slipped to 9.1mb/d but if a fresh forecast is correct the number could be 8.5mb/d by July and possibly below 8mb/d in the September quarter.
Back To 2013
If correct that prediction from Australian-based ANZ Banking Group will mean that U.S. oil output will be back to levels last seen in early 2013, the mid-point in the U.S. oil revival.

Slipping U.S. production has been a factor in this year’s oil-price recovery, along with outages in traditionally strong producers such Nigeria and Iraq.
The work of ANZ’s highly-regarded commodities research team into the U.S. oil industry will play well at today’s meeting in Vienna of the Arab-led Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries where fresh calls are expected for production cuts from countries suffering the effects of the low oil price but resisted by oil hawks such as the industry leader, Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Smiles
The Saudi view has consistently been that the oil market will fix itself with low prices forcing high cost producers out of business, leading to a sustainable price recovery.

What the ANZ has done with its report released earlier today is reinforce the Saudi position with the headline telling the story: “Declines in U.S. oil output set to accelerate”.
A key to the ANZ view is that there are simply not enough drilling rigs active in the U.S. to maintain output. While the most closely followed rig count from the oil services firm Baker Hughes BHI +0.74% puts the number of rigs in the field at 316 (down two on last week) ANZ reckons only 280 are currently in operation.
“To maintain current production levels in the U.S. requires 439 rigs,” ANZ said.
Financial Stress Doing Its Work
Financial stress could exacerbate the situation, the bank added. “Oil producers with sub investment grade debt maturing this year produced approximately 1.3mb/d of oil,” a number served up without ANZ offering a suggestion as to how much of that “stressed” oil be squeezed out.
But, the clear inference is that a major slip is just around the corner.
“Despite drilling activity continuing to fall, U.S. output has remained relatively resilient, ANZ said. “Active or new drilling rigs in the U.S. have fallen from 1600 to 316 (in May) the lowest level since September, 2009.
“This is only just being translated into a fall in U.S. oil production.
Low Prices Bite
“However, we believe the rate of falls in weekly U.S. oil production is about to accelerate as the impact of the falling rig count will be compounded by forced closures and low prices biting.”
One measure of what lies ahead is an ANZ calculation of the daily decline in U.S. production which saw a drop of 65,000 barrels a day in the second half of last year, followed by a fall of 87,000b/d so far this year. But, on some days in recent months, the bank noted, the daily decline has been an eyecatching 197,000 barrels.
ANZ also disputes a recent forecast by the western world’s oil industry watchdog, the International Energy Agency, which is tipping U.S. production of 8.2mb/d by next October, down from the current 9.1mb/d and remaining around 8.2mb/d through 2017.
Upside Oil Price Risk
“This could prove conservative,” the bank said. “We expect the increasing indebtedness to magnify the losses, with U.S. production forecast to fall to below 8mb/d in the September quarter.”
The bank did not provide an oil-price tip but did note that the sharp fall in output over the past few months represented “upside risk” to the oil price as supply cuts start to be felt on stock levels.

[paulhowe]

E si, peccato che non esportano petrolio per vivere, come fanno i russi.

Lo consumano.

Infatti hanno aziende come Boeing, Intel, Microsoft, Ford, Gm, General Electrics, Oracle, Pfizer, Caterpillar, 3M, Coca Cola, Nvidia, Apple, IBM, Texas Instruments, Northrop, Whirlpool, Textron, Dow Chemical, DuPont......e molto altro.

I russi campano con Ga$prop.

Fai tu.

[egixe]

E si, peccato che non esportano petrolio per vivere, come fanno i russi.

Lo consumano.

"Tanto è acerba"

Infatti hanno aziende come Boeing, Intel, Microsoft, Ford, Gm, General Electrics, Oracle, Pfizer, Caterpillar, 3M, Coca Cola, Nvidia, Apple, IBM, Texas Instruments, Northrop, Whirlpool, Textron, Dow Chemical, DuPont......e molto altro.

I russi campano con Ga$prop.

Fai tu.

E, come previsto, via con la solita cantilena.

[Shiiva]

E, come previsto, via con la solita cantilena.

Perche', aspettavi qualcosa di nuovo?

Paulhowe e' prevedibile come la diarrea. Ma e' divertente.

[tafazzo]

[paulhowe]

"Tanto è acerba"



E, come previsto, via con la solita cantilena.

E si la "cantilena" infatti non e' sufficiente per gente che continua a postare cretinate a go-go frutto della piu bieca ignoranza.

[agaragar]

Nemmeno Germania e Giappone hanno il petrolio

[FedericaS]

Nemmeno la Spagna, Svizzera, Austria, Germania, Svezia, Belgio. Eppure tutti loro possiedono le strade catramate, auto, camion, treni, navi, aerei, chimica eccetera, eccetera!

[Shiiva]

Nemmeno la Spagna, Svizzera, Austria, Germania, Svezia, Belgio. Eppure tutti loro possiedono le strade catramate, auto, camion, treni, navi, aerei, chimica eccetera, eccetera!

La Russia invece no? O_o

[FedericaS]

La Russia invece no? O_o

si, si chiaro che si. Volevo dire che gli stati che non possiedono petrolio vivono bene con prodotti del petrolio. Anche se non lo hanno. Il mercato mondiale è pieno di opportunità, no?

Sono altri i parametri importanti per avere una buona economia.
Spero sia stata più chiara.