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Discussione: Demografia europea

  1. #1
    catcher in the rye
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    Predefinito Demografia europea

    secondo me questo sarà il problema fondamentale dei prossimi 30-40 anni.
    I dati concreti ci dicono che la popolazione già oggi è in un forte squilibrio che non può essere risolto attraverso incentivi a fare più figli.
    Nemmeno i flussi migratori sembrano in grado di compensare questo squilibrio.
    Cosa ne pensate ?


    Demographic trends in Europe

    The population of the European Union has been growing and ageing steadily in the past decades. In 2010 the total population of the European Union crossed the 500 million threshold. The fertility rate of the European Union is 1,6 (2009) which is far below the replacement level. In addition to the pro-population policies that aim to increase reproductivity, there are two factors that can mitigate the effects of low fertility levels, and thus postpone the population decrease of the European Union: the first is increasing life expectancy and the second is migration from countries outside the EU.



    Looking at the dynamics of demographic change since the year 2000, there is clear evidence for both processes of population growth and ageing in the European Union. In a time span of almost 10 years, the share of the 0-14 age group has diminished significantly, while the share of the elderly – especially of those above age 80 - has grown considerably. These trends show the fact that the modest population growth of the European Union derives to a greater extent from the high level of migration than from natural population change. Although the level of net migration has varied significantly over the last ten years, it was the source of at least two-thirds of the positive population change.

    The population of the EU will become significantly older in the next decades, no matter whether the current low fertility rate increases to the replacement level or whether migration from third countries can counterbalance the natural decrease. Currently the elderly (above 65) make up 17 per cent among the EU’s inhabitants. The increasing number of the elderly in the population is a consequence of longer life expectancy which is definitely a positive phenomenon and characterises the increasing quality of life in the European Union. On the other hand, the old-age dependency ratio is currently 25 per cent and it may increase to 50 per cent by 2050, which would definitely put pressure on public spending (first and foremost pensions, health care and social services). Ageing and its fiscal and social consequences – summarised in Chapter 2 [link] – affect all the EU countries (though to varying extent).

    ....
    As a result, the old-age dependency ratio, calculated as the ratio of people aged 65 or above relative to the working-age population aged 15-64, is projected to more than double in the EU from 25 per cent to 50 per cent in 2050. The increase is particularly high in Germany, where the working age population has decreased by 3 per cent since 2000, while the number of elderly (65+) increased by 22 per cent. Greece and Italy have experienced a strong increase in the old age dependency ratio as well, but in these countries the working age population has not yet declined.

    This means that the EU would move from having 4 persons of working-age for every person aged over 65 to a ratio of only 2 to 1. When adding the number of children to the calculation, the ratio of dependent to active is projected to rise by nearly 30 percentage points. These population trends underpin future trends in the labour market which are of crucial importance for economic growth. An indicator of the challenges ahead is the ratio of non-workers to workers, or the economic dependency ratio.

    As has been stressed in ’Recent demographic developments in Europe’ by the Council of Europe (2002) the European population structure no longer resembles the shape of a pyramid, but rather a snowball. The youngest generations under the age of 20 years have become smaller and smaller. They constitute the smaller future generations of parents, which again leads to a smaller number of births. So the European population structure, which is already older than most of the countries in the world, shows the characteristic features of further ageing.


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    «The world is less explainable than we would like to admit» Jeff Jarvis
    «Io non capisco come si possa passare davanti a un albero e non essere felici di vederlo» - Fëdor Dostoevskij

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  2. #2
    catcher in the rye
    Data Registrazione
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    Predefinito Re: Demografia europea

    «The world is less explainable than we would like to admit» Jeff Jarvis
    «Io non capisco come si possa passare davanti a un albero e non essere felici di vederlo» - Fëdor Dostoevskij

 

 

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