Jan Hus
31-03-02, 03:20
Arafat's last stand
Analysis By Gerald M. Steinberg
(March 31) - In 18 months of escalating Palestinian terrorism, various rationales have been offered for Yasser Arafat's strategy. One of the more popular is that "General" Arafat, as he now calls himself, was attempting to create a "balance of terror" and deterrence with respect to Israel.
According to this theory, by sending waves of suicide bombers (including a 18-year-old-girl on Friday) into Israeli cities, and firing home-made Kassam rockets, the Palestinians sought to neutralize the IDF's conventional military superiority. On the basis of this new balance, the Arafat watchers speculated, the Palestinians would return to the political process to reach an accommodation with Israel that had been spurned in earlier negotiations.
If this was indeed part of Arafat's plan (assuming that he had one), it now appears that he has overplayed his hand. Deterrence loses its effectiveness when potential harm becomes reality, and the price of inaction is greater than the threat of future harm. The escalating terror attacks, that killed hundreds of Israelis and hospitalized many more, failed to demoralize Israelis, but rather had the opposite impact. The massacres, which reached a new level of brutality with the Seder bombing in Netanya, united and galvanized the Israeli public. The level of violence finally became intolerable, and the limitations on Israeli military responses have been removed. While suicide attacks continue (including last night's Tel Aviv bombing) and there are likely to be more in the next days or weeks, these will not limit the IDF's actions to destroy the terrorist infrastructure.
The widely held, but entirely false, view that the Israeli public was too weak and "bourgeois" to endure terrorism may also have contributed to Arafat's self-made disaster. Arafat, like many Palestinian leaders (and most journalists who purport to analyze events in the region), never bothered to understand Israeli society and the foundations of Zionism. After so many generations of powerless in the Diaspora, culminating in pogroms and the Holocaust, Israeli Jews are certainly never going to allow themselves to be intimidated by terror attacks. The desire for peace was confused with post-Zionism, a fringe movement. When the Palestinian threat resurfaced, the centrality of self-defense in Zionism returned, and a powerful response became inevitable.
Arafat and the Palestinians overplayed their political hand, undermining the sympathy that they had gained over the years. The campaign, based on rewriting the history of the Middle East for a largely ignorant "international community" and repeating the word "occupation" at every opportunity, created broad support for a Palestinian state. Politically, Israel has been on the defensive, struggling to refocus the international agenda on terrorism and hatred that began long before the 1967 war, "occupation" and settlements. Ineffective responses and poorly prepared spokesmen did not help to explain Israeli realities.
As the terrorist nature of the Palestinian leadership became increasingly obvious, this political support started to decrease. Under the Bush administration, the US government, which has always taken a more serious approach, the focus on Arafat's encouragement of terror grew, particularly after September 11. American backing for Prime Minister Ariel Sharon grew in response to his patient policies, particularly during the visit of Vice President Richard Cheney.
Other democracies, including Canada and Australia, started to distance themselves from the Palestinian campaign of violence, as did British Prime Minister Tony Blair and German Foreign Minister Joschka Fisher. In contrast to the fawning treatment of Arafat on the BBC and in other media, some serious journalists have exposed the Palestinian propaganda campaign, use of children for terrorism, systematic incitement, and acquisition of weapons in blatant violation of the Oslo agreements. While many European "intellectuals" and officials still cling to anti-Israeli myths and slogans, support for Arafat's terrorism is finally beginning to wane. As a result, his desperate pleas for help are falling on deaf ears. The UN Security Council resolution calling for restraint is a far cry from the one-sided condemnations of Israel that have been the norm for many years, and does not provide the salvation that Arafat expected.
Finally, a sustained and powerful Israeli response, destroying the terrorist infrastructure and leaving "General" Arafat and his lieutenants visibly impotent, will undermine the suicide bombers' motivation. Hundreds of easily manipulated Palestinians were persuaded to give up their lives for what they were convinced was a sacred goal, but once the goal is out of reach martyrdom becomes irrelevant. This message will take some time to sink in, but when it does, the high cost that the Palestinian people has paid for an entirely useless and self-destructive campaign could finally lead to the end of the Arafat era. At that stage, some form of peace and stability may begin to take root in the Middle East.
Dal Jerusalem Post
Analysis By Gerald M. Steinberg
(March 31) - In 18 months of escalating Palestinian terrorism, various rationales have been offered for Yasser Arafat's strategy. One of the more popular is that "General" Arafat, as he now calls himself, was attempting to create a "balance of terror" and deterrence with respect to Israel.
According to this theory, by sending waves of suicide bombers (including a 18-year-old-girl on Friday) into Israeli cities, and firing home-made Kassam rockets, the Palestinians sought to neutralize the IDF's conventional military superiority. On the basis of this new balance, the Arafat watchers speculated, the Palestinians would return to the political process to reach an accommodation with Israel that had been spurned in earlier negotiations.
If this was indeed part of Arafat's plan (assuming that he had one), it now appears that he has overplayed his hand. Deterrence loses its effectiveness when potential harm becomes reality, and the price of inaction is greater than the threat of future harm. The escalating terror attacks, that killed hundreds of Israelis and hospitalized many more, failed to demoralize Israelis, but rather had the opposite impact. The massacres, which reached a new level of brutality with the Seder bombing in Netanya, united and galvanized the Israeli public. The level of violence finally became intolerable, and the limitations on Israeli military responses have been removed. While suicide attacks continue (including last night's Tel Aviv bombing) and there are likely to be more in the next days or weeks, these will not limit the IDF's actions to destroy the terrorist infrastructure.
The widely held, but entirely false, view that the Israeli public was too weak and "bourgeois" to endure terrorism may also have contributed to Arafat's self-made disaster. Arafat, like many Palestinian leaders (and most journalists who purport to analyze events in the region), never bothered to understand Israeli society and the foundations of Zionism. After so many generations of powerless in the Diaspora, culminating in pogroms and the Holocaust, Israeli Jews are certainly never going to allow themselves to be intimidated by terror attacks. The desire for peace was confused with post-Zionism, a fringe movement. When the Palestinian threat resurfaced, the centrality of self-defense in Zionism returned, and a powerful response became inevitable.
Arafat and the Palestinians overplayed their political hand, undermining the sympathy that they had gained over the years. The campaign, based on rewriting the history of the Middle East for a largely ignorant "international community" and repeating the word "occupation" at every opportunity, created broad support for a Palestinian state. Politically, Israel has been on the defensive, struggling to refocus the international agenda on terrorism and hatred that began long before the 1967 war, "occupation" and settlements. Ineffective responses and poorly prepared spokesmen did not help to explain Israeli realities.
As the terrorist nature of the Palestinian leadership became increasingly obvious, this political support started to decrease. Under the Bush administration, the US government, which has always taken a more serious approach, the focus on Arafat's encouragement of terror grew, particularly after September 11. American backing for Prime Minister Ariel Sharon grew in response to his patient policies, particularly during the visit of Vice President Richard Cheney.
Other democracies, including Canada and Australia, started to distance themselves from the Palestinian campaign of violence, as did British Prime Minister Tony Blair and German Foreign Minister Joschka Fisher. In contrast to the fawning treatment of Arafat on the BBC and in other media, some serious journalists have exposed the Palestinian propaganda campaign, use of children for terrorism, systematic incitement, and acquisition of weapons in blatant violation of the Oslo agreements. While many European "intellectuals" and officials still cling to anti-Israeli myths and slogans, support for Arafat's terrorism is finally beginning to wane. As a result, his desperate pleas for help are falling on deaf ears. The UN Security Council resolution calling for restraint is a far cry from the one-sided condemnations of Israel that have been the norm for many years, and does not provide the salvation that Arafat expected.
Finally, a sustained and powerful Israeli response, destroying the terrorist infrastructure and leaving "General" Arafat and his lieutenants visibly impotent, will undermine the suicide bombers' motivation. Hundreds of easily manipulated Palestinians were persuaded to give up their lives for what they were convinced was a sacred goal, but once the goal is out of reach martyrdom becomes irrelevant. This message will take some time to sink in, but when it does, the high cost that the Palestinian people has paid for an entirely useless and self-destructive campaign could finally lead to the end of the Arafat era. At that stage, some form of peace and stability may begin to take root in the Middle East.
Dal Jerusalem Post