Il suicidio del fracking

[Amati75]

Interessante pezzo:

Deprecating oil might be signaling the sudden demise of the main driver of US economy, the shale oil industry, but in fact an ever-cheaper oil will trigger a prosperity in businesses, accounting for 25% of America’s GDP.

MOSCOW, December 27 (Sputnik), Kristian Rouz — The shale boom, having made the US oil and natural gas companies the main driver of economic growth and employment since the Great Recession, is suffering from the slump in crude prices. If the current trends prevail into the next year, many energy enterprises, thriving not so long ago, might have to cut either personnel, or wages, deeply affecting the US economic growth.What goes up, must come down, and this proverb might turn into reality for the US economy before the end of Q2 2015, as the ongoing decline in crude prices is leveraging pressure on the profitability of many shale oil producers, the recent Wall Street Journal publication argues. Now, with Brent crude prices sliding below $60/bbl, the US shale oil industry is on the verge of a rebalancing of sorts, with the least profitable assetschanging hands or preparing to do so. However, even if one assumes the Morgan Stanley forecast of $43/bbl for the next year will prove true, the differentiated shale oil breakeven for the US energy companies would allow for most of them to stay afloat at least.
Some scrutiny is required to have a deeper look into the mater. First and foremost, the average breakeven for US shale oil producers is unknown and varies greatly from one company to another, depending on, besides volumes and costs of extraction, on such unstable variables as equity valuations, stock market fluctuations and the FederalReserve’s monetary policy. This is a totally different situation than in most oil-producing nations, where large monopolies control crude extraction, production and exports, thus making the oil breakeven point easy to calculate. For instance, according to MEES, IMF and Citi calculations based on the governmental data, the 2015 oil breakeven is $103/bbl for Saudi Arabia, $107/bbl for Russia, $131/bbl for Iran, $151/bbl for Venezuela, $184/bbl for Libya, $60/bbl for Qatar, and $54/bbl for Kuwait.

The US shale oil breakeven is hard to calculate due to one more reason. If a certain shale oil producer has reputation solid enough to be successfully selling equities on Wall Street, it may remain profitable even in case crude production is unprofitable due to low market prices. This is an advantage of the developed financial system within the US’s market economy.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance has estimated the average US shale oil breakeven at $80/bbl. Robert W. Baird Equity Research put the breakeven at $53-93/bbl, Morgan Stanley estimated it at $60-80/bbl, UBS Investment estimates say $43-111/bbl, Credit Suisse puts the breakeven at $24-84/bbl, as compiled by Reuters. Ed Morse of Citi said in November the US shale breakeven is at about $90/bbl, but the whole industry would be challenged in case the oil prices move to $60/bbl. Scotia Bank, in turn, said the US shale oil breakeven is at $60-61/bbl.
The WTI spot prices have been, on the average $93.21/bbl in September 2014, sliding down to $84.40/bl in October, to $75.79/bbl in November. Then the WTI experienced a dramatic slump down to $67.18/bbl in the 1st week of this December, to $61.14/bbl in the 2nd week and $55.89/bbl in the third week of December, according to the databy US Energy Information Administration (EIA), coinciding with an unprecedented rise in the US crude stockpiles.The aforementioned breakeven data suggest that a large part of the US shale production should have become unprofitable, followed by bankruptcies in energy companies, sell-offs in energy equities and an overall economic downturn.

For some reason, this is not happening.


The recent data from the Labor Department shows US unemployment has fallen to its 7-week low during the 3rd week of December, having contracted for the previous month, and the unemployment rate is at six-year lows of 5.8%. Falling crude prices have not triggered a stock market crash, as Wall Street has reached its multi-year highs in the recent days.
The WSJ argues the oil price of $56/bbl, prolonged into 2015, would take the toll of 40,000 jobs by late 2015 in oil and gas (9% of the total workers in the industry), and an additional 5,000-6,000 jobs in mechanical engineering (6% of the total currently employed).
This might be fair enough, in case the current readjustment in the shale oil industry fails, which is hardly possible. Even if it does, shale oil production is concentrated in five US states, namely Texas, Nebraska, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Dakota. Except TX and PA, the other three states have seen far worse times in the past than a 9% contraction.

This pessimistic scenario is hardly viable though, but in case in comes true, the abundance of oil stockpiled in the US will have more of a positive impact on the US employment nationwide. The $812-billion US chemical industry is about to boom on the cheaper and readily available oil and gas. Chemical production is bigger than aerospace ($224 bln), automotive industry ($276 bln) and computer electronics ($28 bln), summed together, and constitutes 25% of the US economy, according to the data by American Chemistry Council. The decreased cost of both raw materials and energy, which are oil and natural gas to the US chemical industry, are a double benefit for the sphere, according to a PWC estimate.

Now, how many jobs will provide a boom in the industry that constitutes a quarter of the world’s biggest economy? Supposedly it will exceed 45,000 jobs that might be lost in case a pessimistic scenario for the US shale oil production is a reality.
The recent advances in the biotech and pharmaceutical shares on Wall Street are not a coincidence. Medicine is daughter to chemistry, and the latter’s prospects are big. Thus, the seemingly alarming tendencies in the US economy turn out to be a win-win situation.

In case crude prices grow, the shale boom in America’s raw materials production continues. In case oil plunges further, America’s chemical plants, oil refineries, fertilizer mills, drug makers, synthetic clothing and dye producers and many more businesses, constituting the quarter of the total economy, will skyrocket, creating even more jobs and money.

Quarter of US Economy About to Skyrocket on the Oil Slump / Sputnik International

[Amati75]

Exporting crude oil from the U.S. has long been largely illegal. Until lately, it has also been mostly unthinkable. Domestic production had been declining for decades and the country seemed hopelessly addicted to foreign supplies. Not anymore. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have squeezed torrents of oil from shale rock deep underground. The U.S. produced more oil in 2013 than it imported for the first time since 1988 and it’s expected to overtake Russia and Saudi Arabia in 2015 to become the world’s biggest producer. Can exports be far behind?

The Situation

The U.S. bans most exports of crude oil, the stuff that comes from the ground before being turned into gasoline, heating fuel and other useful products. That’s been true since 1975, after an Arab oil embargoshocked the economy. Now production, which averaged 7.4 million barrels a day in 2013, is set to surge to 9.3 million barrels a day by the end of 2015, the most since 1972. That’s pushing down domestic prices more than foreign ones: West Texas Intermediate crude will average $62.75 a barrel in 2015, while Brent, the international benchmark, averages $68.08, the U.S. Energy Department estimates. While refineries benefit from cheaper costs compared with foreign competitors, producers want access to higher prices from overseas buyers. In June, the U.S. opened that door a crack when the Commerce Department allowed Pioneer Natural Resources to export a type of minimally processed ultra-light oil known as condensate. In December, the government let companies know they could ship lightly refined condensate without special permission.
SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY DATA COMPILED BY BLOOMBERGThe Background

It may seem counterintuitive to talk about exporting crude oil when the U.S. still imports more than 7 million barrels a day, more than any other country. But crude oil isn’t perfectly fungible. Oil from different regions comes in different grades, meaning variations in density and sulfur content. The cost of moving crude by pipeline, rail or ship can also create bottlenecks. Most of the growth in U.S. production is light shale oil, but many refineries are configured to process heavier crudes from South America and the Middle East. That mismatch is creating a surplus of domestic light oil even as imports keep pouring in. Refineries in the Gulf Coast, East Coast and Canada would become saturated in the first half of 2015, Goldman Sachs says. At that point, the U.S. will have to expand plants, curb output or increase exports.
The Argument

Producers that want to sell oil at higher prices overseas argue that keeping the export ban will push down domestic prices until drilling becomes unprofitable, jeopardizing the U.S. goal of energy independence. Refiners support the ban to maintain their cost advantage, which helps them sell record amounts of fuels abroad (because exports of oil products are permitted). European and Asian refiners, by contrast, would benefit from access to U.S. crude. Some politicians, such as Democratic Senators Ron Wyden of Oregon and Robert Menendez of New Jersey, contend that allowing exports would lead to higher gasoline prices. Environmentalists are concerned that exports would lead to more drilling and consumption of polluting fossil fuels. Similarly, government approval for facilities to ship liquefied natural gas was opposed by chemical companies that use the fuel as a raw material, arguing that exports would raise prices at home. As the debate heats up, the industry is finding ways to work around the oil-export ban. Exports to Canada, which are allowed with licenses from the Commerce Department, almost tripled to 351,000 barrels a day in October from a year earlier, government data show. Companies are also expanding shale processing equipment, such as Kinder Morgan‘s simplified refineries called splitters that process crude just enough to qualify as a product that can be legally exported.
THE REFERENCE SHELF

• Webcast of Senate committee hearing on crude exports.
• Senator Lisa Murkowski, a ban opponent who is expected to head the energy committee in January, issued a report on the U.S. energy outlook through the end of the decade.

Crude Clash - QuickTake - Bloomberg

• Congressional Research Service report on crude oil export licenses.
• Energy Department data on production and trade.

FIRST PUBLISHED FEB. 27, 2014
To contact the writer of this QuickTake:
Isaac Arnsdorf in New York at iarnsdorf@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this QuickTake:
Jonathan I. Landman at jlandman4@bloomberg.net

[Amati75]

Exporting crude oil from the U.S. has long been largely illegal. Until lately, it has also been mostly unthinkable. Domestic production had been declining for decades and the country seemed hopelessly addicted to foreign supplies. Not anymore. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have squeezed torrents of oil from shale rock deep underground. The U.S. produced more oil in 2013 than it imported for the first time since 1988 and it’s expected to overtake Russia and Saudi Arabia in 2015 to become the world’s biggest producer. Can exports be far behind?

The Situation

The U.S. bans most exports of crude oil, the stuff that comes from the ground before being turned into gasoline, heating fuel and other useful products. That’s been true since 1975, after an Arab oil embargoshocked the economy. Now production, which averaged 7.4 million barrels a day in 2013, is set to surge to 9.3 million barrels a day by the end of 2015, the most since 1972. That’s pushing down domestic prices more than foreign ones: West Texas Intermediate crude will average $62.75 a barrel in 2015, while Brent, the international benchmark, averages $68.08, the U.S. Energy Department estimates. While refineries benefit from cheaper costs compared with foreign competitors, producers want access to higher prices from overseas buyers. In June, the U.S. opened that door a crack when the Commerce Department allowed Pioneer Natural Resources to export a type of minimally processed ultra-light oil known as condensate. In December, the government let companies know they could ship lightly refined condensate without special permission.
SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY DATA COMPILED BY BLOOMBERGThe Background

It may seem counterintuitive to talk about exporting crude oil when the U.S. still imports more than 7 million barrels a day, more than any other country. But crude oil isn’t perfectly fungible. Oil from different regions comes in different grades, meaning variations in density and sulfur content. The cost of moving crude by pipeline, rail or ship can also create bottlenecks. Most of the growth in U.S. production is light shale oil, but many refineries are configured to process heavier crudes from South America and the Middle East. That mismatch is creating a surplus of domestic light oil even as imports keep pouring in. Refineries in the Gulf Coast, East Coast and Canada would become saturated in the first half of 2015, Goldman Sachs says. At that point, the U.S. will have to expand plants, curb output or increase exports.
The Argument

Producers that want to sell oil at higher prices overseas argue that keeping the export ban will push down domestic prices until drilling becomes unprofitable, jeopardizing the U.S. goal of energy independence. Refiners support the ban to maintain their cost advantage, which helps them sell record amounts of fuels abroad (because exports of oil products are permitted). European and Asian refiners, by contrast, would benefit from access to U.S. crude. Some politicians, such as Democratic Senators Ron Wyden of Oregon and Robert Menendez of New Jersey, contend that allowing exports would lead to higher gasoline prices. Environmentalists are concerned that exports would lead to more drilling and consumption of polluting fossil fuels. Similarly, government approval for facilities to ship liquefied natural gas was opposed by chemical companies that use the fuel as a raw material, arguing that exports would raise prices at home. As the debate heats up, the industry is finding ways to work around the oil-export ban. Exports to Canada, which are allowed with licenses from the Commerce Department, almost tripled to 351,000 barrels a day in October from a year earlier, government data show. Companies are also expanding shale processing equipment, such as Kinder Morgan‘s simplified refineries called splitters that process crude just enough to qualify as a product that can be legally exported.
THE REFERENCE SHELF

• Webcast of Senate committee hearing on crude exports.
• Senator Lisa Murkowski, a ban opponent who is expected to head the energy committee in January, issued a report on the U.S. energy outlook through the end of the decade.

Crude Clash - QuickTake - Bloomberg

• Congressional Research Service report on crude oil export licenses.
• Energy Department data on production and trade.

FIRST PUBLISHED FEB. 27, 2014
To contact the writer of this QuickTake:
Isaac Arnsdorf in New York at iarnsdorf@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this QuickTake:
Jonathan I. Landman at jlandman4@bloomberg.net

[Amati75]

OPEC officials hope that once U.S. oil companies get fully exposed to the impact of an over 50 percent slide in crude prices since last June, they will have to drill fewer new wells, causing U.S. production growth to stall and putting a floor under oil prices now testing $50 a barrel.
"There are companies which are hedged until the beginning of the year or until the end of the year, so we need to wait at least until the first quarter to see what is going to happen," United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Bin Mohammed al-Mazroui told Reuters and one other news agency last month.
Yet that hope is based largely on quarterly company reports from several months ago, when drillers last made their hedging portfolios public. In the meantime, with the price rout showing no sign of reversing, at least some firms have put on new hedges that will help prevent their revenues from falling further - and allow them to drill far longer this year than earlier expected.
"OPEC should not expect to see any impact on U.S. shale growth in the first half of the year and the impact in the second half is being attenuated significantly by producer hedging," says Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup, one of the biggest U.S. banks involved hedging.



Revamped U.S. oil hedges may test OPEC's patience | Reuters

[Metabo]

Fallita la prima azienda di shale gas. Bolla sugli energetici? | Trend Online
Fallita la prima azienda di shale gas. Bolla sugli energetici?

News alert: Petrolio, EniIntonato il primo requiem dello shale gas. La società che ha dovuto ricorrere alla legge sui fallimenti è la texana WbhEnergy ed ha di fatto dato il via alla “pulizia” che il settore dei petroliferi vedrà sicuramente nei prossimi mesi.

• 

Rossana Prezioso 9 gennaio 13:04


Oknotizie
Intonato il primo requiem dello shale gas. La società che ha dovuto ricorrere alla legge sui fallimenti è la texana WbhEnergy ed ha di fatto dato il via alla “pulizia” che il settore dei petroliferi vedrà sicuramente nei prossimi mesi. Infatti la febbre delle esplorazioni e della fratturazione idraulica ha creato una febbre dell’oro nero come non si vedeva dai tempi dello sceneggiato degli anni 80 Dallas. Il mito del pozzo petrolifero che rendeva ricchi nel giro di 24 ore ha colpito ancora e purtroppo ha colpito duro.
Le cause di un crollo

In un mondo dove i soldi non costano niente e dove i rendimenti sono intorno allo zero perenne, è stato facile indebitarsi nella speranza di riuscire a riscattarsi e adesso che quei debiti devono essere riscattati, il petrolio crolla, lasciando con il cerino in mano decine e decine di aziende estrattive. Cosa fare allora? Indebitarsi ulteriormente per riuscire a sopravvivere al momento (sperando che di momento passeggero si tratti) oppure lasciare andare tutto come le conseguenze disastrose facilmente immaginabili? In molti hanno scelto a prima ipotesi, producendo ancora più materia prima e quindi favorendo la spirale negativa che porterà ulteriormente al ribasso, autoalimentandosi. In sei mesi, infatti, proprio in parallelo al calo, i barili sono aumentati di circa 400mila barili al giorno.
Una difficoltà maggiore arriva anche dal fatto che le differenze di costi variano non solo a causa delle varie tecnologie usate, ma anche a seconda della conformazione del terreno creando ulteriori zavorre per i produttori e non solo per loro.
Le conseguenze anche da noi...

Sia Piazza Affari che Wall Street sono particolarmente esposte al settore energetico (la prima in percentuale anche maggiore considerando al capitalizzazione) e ultimamente la rivoluzione shale ha attirato molti più investitori del previsto, con un + 40% degli investimenti totali. Con tutta una serie di paradossi consequenziali. Quali?
- See more at: Fallita la prima azienda di shale gas. Bolla sugli energetici? | Trend Online

[Metabo]

Come volevasi dimostrare.

[Metabo]

Shale gas. Fallita la WbhEnergy. È la prima della lista. - SENZANUBI
Shale gas. Fallita la WbhEnergy. È la prima della lista.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2015-01-09

Il Wall Street Journal è sintetico:

«American oil and gas companies have gone heavily into debt during the energy boom, increasing their borrowings by 55% since 2010, to almost $200 billion. Their need to service that debt helps explain why U.S. producers plan ro continue pumping oil even as crude trades for less than $50 a barrel, down 55% since last June.» * «Intonato il primo requiem dello shale gas. La società che ha dovuto ricorrere alla legge sui fallimenti è la texana WbhEnergy ed ha di fatto dato il via alla “pulizia” che il settore dei petroliferi vedrà sicuramente nei prossimi mesi. Infatti la febbre delle esplorazioni e della fratturazione idraulica ha creato una febbre dell’oro nero come non si vedeva dai tempi dello sceneggiato degli anni 80 Dallas. Il mito del pozzo petrolifero che rendeva ricchi nel giro di 24 ore ha colpito ancora e purtroppo ha colpito duro».

Petrolio. WW3. Costi di estrazione e di mercato pericolosamente vicini. Natural Gas : fine dello shale gas? Shale Gas. Al peggio non c’è mai fine. Lnga -18.09%. Il drop del Crude Oil sta preparando una bolla da 550 bn$.

* * * * *

Non ci si faccia illusioni, ma propria nessuna. Il problema non è tanto se la bolla ci sia o non ci sia oppure la dimensione che abbia. Al massimo verte sul quando. Una cosa sembrerebbe però essere certa. Sarà molto, ma molto, peggio di quella del 2009.

→ Trend online. 2015-01-09. Fallita la prima azienda di shale gas. Bolla sugli energetici? Intonato il primo requiem dello shale gas. La società che ha dovuto ricorrere alla legge sui fallimenti è la texana WbhEnergy ed ha di fatto dato il via alla “pulizia” che il settore dei petroliferi vedrà sicuramente nei prossimi mesi. Intonato il primo requiem dello shale gas. La società che ha dovuto ricorrere alla legge sui fallimenti è la texana WbhEnergy ed ha di fatto dato il via alla “pulizia” che il settore dei petroliferi vedrà sicuramente nei prossimi mesi. Infatti la febbre delle esplorazioni e della fratturazione idraulica ha creato una febbre dell’oro nero come non si vedeva dai tempi dello sceneggiato degli anni 80 Dallas. Il mito del pozzo petrolifero che rendeva ricchi nel giro di 24 ore ha colpito ancora e purtroppo ha colpito duro. Le cause di un crollo. In un mondo dove i soldi non costano niente e dove i rendimenti sono intorno allo zero perenne, è stato facile indebitarsi nella speranza di riuscire a riscattarsi e adesso che quei debiti devono essere riscattati, il petrolio crolla, lasciando con il cerino in mano decine e decine di aziende estrattive. Cosa fare allora? Indebitarsi ulteriormente per riuscire a sopravvivere al momento (sperando che di momento passeggero si tratti) oppure lasciare andare tutto come le conseguenze disastrose facilmente immaginabili? In molti hanno scelto a prima ipotesi, producendo ancora più materia prima e quindi favorendo la spirale negativa che porterà ulteriormente al ribasso, autoalimentandosi. In sei mesi, infatti, proprio in parallelo al calo, i barili sono aumentati di circa 400mila barili al giorno. Una difficoltà maggiore arriva anche dal fatto che le differenze di costi variano non solo a causa delle varie tecnologie usate, ma anche a seconda della conformazione del terreno creando ulteriori zavorre per i produttori e non solo per loro. Le conseguenze anche da noi… Sia Piazza Affari che Wall Street sono particolarmente esposte al settore energetico (la prima in percentuale anche maggiore considerando al capitalizzazione) e ultimamente la rivoluzione shale ha attirato molti più investitori del previsto, con un + 40% degli investimenti totali. Con tutta una serie di paradossi consequenziali. Quali? Partendo proprio dall’Italia è facile pensare alla benzina. Calo vistoso? Nemmeno per sogno, il prezzo del carburante alla pompa è sempre relativamente alto considerando quello del barile: tutto “merito” delle accise, ma anche di un cambio negativo tra euro e dollaro. Ma al di là delle facili polemiche si pensi anche ai produttori “nostrani”. Di queste ore la notizia secondo cui Eni ha firmato un nuovo Concession Agreement per operare nel deserto occidentale dell’Egitto. Questo dopo anche i record dei pozzi scoperti in Indonesia e Mozambico, senza contare anche le possibilità presenti in oltre metà del Mediterraneo, con il quadrante che va dall’Egitto fino alla Palestina e che, secondo gli esperti, potrebbe rappresentare un nuovo mega-giacimento. Gli Usa: si resta ottimisti… ma non ora. Guardando invece agli Usa il le società energetiche del S&P 500 hanno visto un calo del 10% per il 2014, contro un -50% del prezzo del petrolio negli ultimi sei mesi. Cosa potrebbe significare questo? Secondo David Rosenberg, capo economista e strategist di Gluskin Sheff&Associates il settore sarà interessante. Ma non adesso. Il potenziale di ribasso della materia prima è ancora alto e le incertezze restano numerose. Stando alla sua proiezione, invece, meglio attendere il secondo trimestre, quando la tempesta si sarà per lo meno placata. Come muoversi? Puntare a produttori con basso costo, con bilanci solidi e che possono permettersi di superare la tempesta. Infatti la selezione, almeno a livello di società, riguarderà i piccoli protagonisti. Per i possibili default di intere nazioni, il discorso è, purtroppo, ben diverso.

→ Zerohedge. 2015-01-07. The First Shale Casualty: WBH Energy Files For Bankruptcy; Many More Coming “There are too many ugly balance sheets,” warns one energy industry analyst, adding simply that “the group is not positioned for this downturn.” While the mainstream media continues to chant the happy-clappy side of lower oil prices, spewing various ‘statistics’ about how the down-side of low oil prices is ‘contained’ and the huge colossal massive tax cut means ‘everything is awesome’ for America, the data – and now actions – do not bear this out. Macro data has done nothing but disappoint and now, we have the first casualty of the shale oil leverage debacle as WSJ reports, on Sunday, a private company that drills in Texas, WBH Energy LP, and its partners, filed for bankruptcy protection, saying a lender refused to advance more money. There are many more to come… In December we illustrated the problem names (in the publicly traded markets) among the most-levered energy companies in America… And now, as The Wall Street Journal reports, the bankruptcies have begun as financing costs are not just prohibitive, there is no liquiidty available at any price for many… American oil and gas companies have gone heavily into debt during the energy boom, increasing their borrowings by 55% since 2010, to almost $200 billion. Their need to service that debt helps explain why U.S. producers plan to continue pumping oil even as crude trades for less than $50 a barrel, down 55% since last June. But signs of strain are building in the oil patch, where revenue growth hasn’t kept pace with borrowing. On Sunday, a private company that drills in Texas, WBH Energy LP, and its partners, filed for bankruptcy protection, saying a lender refused to advance more money and citing debt of between $10 million and $50 million. Neither the Austin-based company nor its lawyers responded to requests for comment. Energy analysts warn defaults could be coming. “The group is not positioned for this downturn,” said Daniel Katzenberg, an analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co. “There are too many ugly balance sheets.” … In 2010, U.S. companies focused on producing oil and gas had $128 billion in combined total debt, according to financial data collected by S&P Capital IQ. As of their latest quarter, such companies had $199 billion of combined total debt. Before crude prices began falling, U.S. oil and gas producers were able to acquire leases and drill wells even if that meant outspending their incomes. Debt was used to bridge the cash shortfall so that companies could develop oil fields in Texas, North Dakota and newer locations including Colorado. Now that is coming back to bite. The upshot of cash conservation and higher borrowing costs will be less money spent on producing oil and natural gas. Concho Resources Inc. said late Monday that it was cutting its capital spending budget by a third, to $2 billion. * * * And the credit market knows it…

→ EPJ. 2015-01-07. The First Shale Oil Casualty: WBH Energy Files For Bankruptcy And it begins. The collapse in the oil price is going to crush US shale oil production. WSJ reports: [S]igns of strain are building in the oil patch, where revenue growth hasn’t kept pace with borrowing. On Sunday, a private company that drills in Texas, WBH Energy LP, and its partners, filed for bankruptcy protection, saying a lender refused to advance more money and citing debt of between $10 million and $50 million. Neither the Austin-based company nor its lawyers responded to requests for comment. Energy analysts warn defaults could be coming. “The group is not positioned for this downturn,” said Daniel Katzenberg, an analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co. “There are too many ugly balance sheets.” From the filing: WBH Energy, LP Bankruptcy Case #: 1:15-bk-10003 U.S. Bankruptcy Court Western District of Texas (Austin) Bankruptcy Petition #: 15-10003-hcm Assigned to: Bankruptcy Judge H. Christopher Mott Chapter 11 Voluntary Asset Date filed: 01/04/2015 341 meeting: 02/10/2015 Deadline for filing claims: 05/11/2015 Debtor WBH Energy, LP 4407 Bee Caves Road Suite 421 Austin, TX 78746 TRAVIS-TX Tax ID / EIN: 45-4106472 represented by William A. (Trey) Wood, III Bracewell & Giuliani LLP 711 Louisiana, Suite 2300 Houston, TX 77002 713 223 2300 Fax : 713 221 1212 Email: trey.wood@bracewellgiuliani.com There will be many more.

→ WSJ. 2015-01-07. Deep Debt Keeps Oil Firms Pumping. American oil and gas companies have gone heavily into debt during the energy boom, increasing their borrowings by 55% since 2010, to almost $200 billion. Their need to service that debt helps explain why U.S. producers plan ro continue pumping oil even as crude trades for less than $50 a barrel, down 55% since last June.

[Amati75]

Come volevasi dimostrare.

Ed il bello e' che ci credi pure.. tu parlavi di dismissione del settore quando il barile era oltre i 100/110$.... e' dovuto scendere attorno ai 55$, un calo di quasi un 50%.... un bear market lo si considera tale dopo un calo del 20%... questo implica che le tue affermazioni erano sconnesse dalla realtà.


Un analisi seria nel caso... e' questa, e non perché' l' ho detta io, ma perche' e' appunto coerente con i dati e con cio' che sta accadendo:

Come in tutti i settori in forte espansione, anche il settore dello shale dovra' passare per una fase di consolidamento, quindi molte aziende ci lascieranno le penne, letteralmente, altre, specie quelle che aumentano la produttivita' per pozzo saranno in una posizione migliore sia per resistere l' ondata inevitabile della consolidazione ma anche per crescere.

Tali dinamiche sono normali e da aspettarsi, sucedette nel campo delle ferrovie, cosi come piu' recentemente nell' Internet, nulla di nuovo sotto il sole.

Shale Oil USA: doccia fredda in arrivo?


Oltre a questo il tuo punto alce sarebbe che smetterebbe lo shale?

Eh mi sa che ti tocchera' mandar giu' una pillola amara in tale senso.

Per certo, il discorso della produttivita', stanno diminuendo i pozzi, ma la produzione ancora no, appunto perche' la produttività sta ancora aumentando, e qui riaggancio l'affermazione fata mesi fa e linciata sopra.

Altro aspetto.. lo shale GAS che li la cosa e' diversa, come del resto sempre fattovi notare.

[Metabo]

Ed il bello e' che ci credi pure.. tu parlavi di dismissione del settore quando il barile era oltre i 100/110$.... e' dovuto scendere attorno ai 55$, un calo di quasi un 50%.... un bear market lo si considera tale dopo un calo del 20%... questo implica che le tue affermazioni erano sconnesse dalla realtà.


Un analisi seria nel caso... e' questa, e non perché' l' ho detta io, ma perche' e' appunto coerente con i dati e con cio' che sta accadendo:

Come in tutti i settori in forte espansione, anche il settore dello shale dovra' passare per una fase di consolidamento, quindi molte aziende ci lascieranno le penne, letteralmente, altre, specie quelle che aumentano la produttivita' per pozzo saranno in una posizione migliore sia per resistere l' ondata inevitabile della consolidazione ma anche per crescere.

Tali dinamiche sono normali e da aspettarsi, sucedette nel campo delle ferrovie, cosi come piu' recentemente nell' Internet, nulla di nuovo sotto il sole.

Shale Oil USA: doccia fredda in arrivo?


Oltre a questo il tuo punto alce sarebbe che smetterebbe lo shale?

Eh mi sa che ti tocchera' mandar giu' una pillola amara in tale senso.

Per certo, il discorso della produttivita', stanno diminuendo i pozzi, ma la produzione ancora no, appunto perche' la produttività sta ancora aumentando, e qui riaggancio l'affermazione fata mesi fa e linciata sopra.

Altro aspetto.. lo shale GAS che li la cosa e' diversa, come del resto sempre fattovi notare.

Nei prossimi mesi ci sarà da divertirsi oil o gas, del resto basta leggere tutte le pagine addietro per vedere che era tutto previsto e come la pensavi, poi i polli che cascono in questi schemi di Ponzi ci sono sempre.

[Amati75]

Nei prossimi mesi ci sarà da divertirsi oil o gas, del resto basta leggere tutte le pagine addietro per vedere che era tutto previsto e come la pensavi, poi i polli che cascono in questi schemi di Ponzi ci sono sempre.

Metabo... ti rendi conto che dicevi quest quando il barile era a 100/110$... e' dovuto scendere del 50%... ma quale schema ponzi resiste ad una riduzione del genere?

Un schema ponzi e' gia' molto se resiste ad un 10/15%....
Ci sara' la consolidazione, come previsto, ed e' ovvia, accade in tutti i settori in rapida espansione, cosa diversa dalla tua profezia che magicamente non ci sarebbe piu' lo shale... e' qui per rimanere, purtroppo per te.

Almeno per tutto il 2015 la produzione non dovrebbe avere impatti, tocca vedere se altri paesi riescono a tenere la botta per tutto il 2015, pesce ti sfugge che qui si parla di aziende, alcune chiuderanno, ci consolidera' il settore, e le altre resteranno sul mercato, dall' altra parte ci sono i flussi mancati per "pagare le pensioni".... la cosa e' diversa, se ancora non l'avete capito.