Peak Oil - Life After the Oil Crash

[bom-bim-bom]

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html

Dear Reader,

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."

Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole.

Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.

In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2000 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2020 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2020 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil-dependant economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.

The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. In this regard, the ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn't need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.

In a similar sense, an oil-based economy such as ours doesn't need to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply as little as 10-15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oil-dependent economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.

(...)

[Fenris]

Honestly, this article seems to me plain bullshit.

In the first place, why should the oil production follow a bell-curve? Oil is a finite resource, which will be exploited according to needs and requests, not according to a hypothetical and unjustified bell-curve, until it will be over.

The production of oil in 2020 won't be equal to 1980, will most probably be thrice as much or so. And it will increase with time, until oil will actualy run out. So, if oil production does follow a curve, rather than a bell curve would that be a hyperbole, until the final stop.

Secondarily, I see no link between the need of water of a human body and the need of oil of an economy.

[bom-bim-bom]

Hubbert peak theory

Hubbert's theory

Hubbert, a geophysicist, created a mathematical model of petroleum extraction which predicted that the total amount of oil extracted over time would follow a logistic curve. This implies that the predicted rate of oil extraction at any given time would be given by the rate of change of the logistic curve, which follows a bell-shaped pattern now known as the Hubbert curve (see figure above).

Given past oil production data and barring extraneous factors such as lack of demand, the model predicts the date of maximum oil production output for an oil field, multiple oil fields, or an entire region. This maximum output point is referred to as the peak. The period after the peak is referred to as depletion. The graph of the rate of oil production for an individual oil field over time follows a bell-shaped curve: first, a slow steady increase of production; then, a sharp increase; then, a plateau (the "peak"); and, finally, a steep decline.

When an oil reserve is discovered, production is initially small, because all the required infrastructure has not been installed. As wells are drilled and more efficient facilities are installed, oil production increases. At some point, a peak output is reached that can not be exceeded, even with improved technology or additional drilling. After the peak, oil production slowly but increasingly tapers off. After the peak, but before an oil field is empty, another significant point is reached when it takes more energy to recover, transport and process a barrel of oil than the amount of energy contained in that barrel. At that point, Hubbert theorized that it is no longer worthwhile to extract oil for energy, and the field might be abandoned.

In 1956, Hubbert predicted that oil production in the continental United States would peak between 1965 and 1970. U.S. oil production peaked in 1971, and has been decreasing since then. According to Hubbert's model, U.S. oil reserves would be exhausted before the end of the 21st century.

Hubbert's theory has been applied by some to other fossil fuels such as natural gas, coal and non-conventional oil.

It should be noted that Hubbert's original formulations applied to a "theoretical, unconstrained province" and that the model must be adjusted if significant artificial impedances (such as political or environmental regulations) are in effect.

(...)

Has it occurred?

An increasing number of theorists believes some peak in world oil production has already occurred. After Hurricane Katrina, Saudi Arabia admitted that it simply could not increase production to make up for the loss of Gulf of Mexico oil rigs. This was widely believed, albeit speculatively, to be the beginning of a final oil crisis, in which there will be no choice but to radically curtail the use of oil.

Nor is the crisis restricted to oil. As natural gas supplies are coexistant with oil in many places, it too may be running out, unless new sources like coalbed methane can be exploited.

etc. etc.

[Feliks]

Originally posted by Fenris
Honestly, this article seems to me plain bullshit.

In the first place, why should the oil production follow a bell-curve? Oil is a finite resource, which will be exploited according to needs and requests, not according to a hypothetical and unjustified bell-curve, until it will be over.

The production of oil in 2020 won't be equal to 1980, will most probably be thrice as much or so. And it will increase with time, until oil will actualy run out. So, if oil production does follow a curve, rather than a bell curve would that be a hyperbole, until the final stop.

Secondarily, I see no link between the need of water of a human body and the need of oil of an economy.

1.The Hubbert's theory is an empiric theory.
2. If anybody can extract so much oil as he wants, why the price has so much increased?
3. the oil is not liquid and you can't suck it like milk or a "mojito"