Il secondo sorpasso?

[Dragonball (POL)]

Il secondo sorpasso?
Posted By: Edmund Conway at Dec 8, 2008 at 12:21:01
Posted in: Business , Economic Pulse


Britain is about to slump from fifth to seventh place in the world's leaderboard of economic giants. It has already fallen (in terms of the size of its economy) behind France and will next year be overtaken by Italy. That, at least, is the conclusion of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, which has done its sums on the scale of the recession facing the UK.

Should it be right we are heading next year for the second "sorpasso". The first, which took place in the 1980s was when Italy overtook the rather sickly UK economy, prompting mass celebration from Milan to Palermo, Not only will this re-run be a cause for much rejoicing in Italy, it will be highly embarrassing for Gordon Brown, symbolising quite vivdly Britain's descent back towards "sick man of Europe" status again.

The calculations are predicated both on the drop in UK gross domestic product and the sharp fall in the pound against the euro et al in past months.

If, that is, they really do come to pass. There is still a question mark over whether Europe's slowdown will a) be so much less virulent than the UK's and b) not cause the euro to drop down in the coming months.

There is no doubt that the UK is sickly at the moment, but the rest of Europe - Italy in particular, not to mention others such as Greece - looks far from healthy.

The CEBR also calculates that China has effectively already overtaken Germany to become the world's third largest economy, and will surpass Japan in 2010. Again, however, there remain some question marks over the scale of the impending slowdown (or economic crisis) facing China.

Other findings from the CEBR:

- Both Brazil and India climb up two places in the league table between 2007 and 2009.

- Canada falls back sharply from 9th place in 2007 to 13th place in 2009 as a result of the severe depreciation of the Canadian dollar.

- Spain loses a place to Brazil in 2009.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/edmund_...condo_sorpasso

State tranquilli che i sinistri,tanto esperti nel postare gli articoli della stampa estera che fanno comodo a loro,questi articoli non veli postano di sicuro.
Don't worry guys: ci penso Io a postarli.

[Zdenek]

State tranquilli che i sinistri,tanto esperti nel postare gli articoli della stampa estera che fanno comodo a loro,questi articoli non veli postano di sicuro.
Don't worry guys: ci penso Io a postarli.

There is no doubt that the UK is sickly at the moment, but the rest of Europe - Italy in particular, not to mention others such as Greece - looks far from healthy.

Un genio, non c'è che dire.

[Immanuel (POL)]

Bah.. Grossi meriti in un sorpasso avvenuto in retromarcia andando più piano non ne vedo.

Sempre se avverrà.

[jamaal74]

Cmq e' così, forse siamo piu' abituato degli altri allo scoramento, ma la nota arte di arrangiarsi italica, in questi 2 anni che ci attendono credo che ci sara' utile.... non dimentichiamo che secondo molti l'UK nel 2011 ci avra' superato in termini di deficit/pil.... e poi abbiamo un basso indebitamento privato....nella merda galleggeremo meglio degli altri...in fondo siamo stronzi!

[Dragonball (POL)]

Company crashes set to hit record next year
By Richard Milne and Anousha Sakoui in London

Published: December 7 2008 18:17 | Last updated: December 8 2008 09:14

Record numbers of companies will go bankrupt next year with 200,000 insolvencies in Europe alone and “an explosion” of failed businesses in the US, according to the world’s largest credit insurer.

The US will see 62,000 companies go bust next year, compared with 42,000 this year and 28,000 last year, says a report by Euler Hermes, part of German insurer Allianz.

The absolute numbers, however, pale in comparison with the figures from western Europe, where the larger number of small companies mean insolvencies are expected to rise by a third from 149,000 last year to 197,000 next.

“The financial crisis will increase the risk of bankruptcy dramatically, particularly next year,” said Romeo Grill, chief economist at Euler Hermes. “There will be an explosion in the US but also big rises in Europe and especially the UK.”

Mr Grill said he expected most company failures in Europe to be focused around the struggling car, retail and textile sectors as well as logistics.

The country with the highest number of insolvencies expected for next year is France with 63,000. But in Europe, Spain, Ireland and the UK are forecast to see the most dramatic rises.

Nearly four times as many Spanish companies will go bust next year as in 2007 while it will be nearly double in Ireland and the UK with 640 and 38,000 businesses respectively.

Japan, the only Asian country in the survey, will also be hit with the number of bankruptcies rising from 14,000 last year to 17,000 next. All countries except Japan will see more insolvencies than in the previous downturn of 2001-02.

The Euler Hermes report comes after Moody’s, the ratings agency, forecast last month that defaults among companies with junk ratings below investment grade will rise from last year’s 1 per cent to 10 per cent next year. But the Euler Hermes survey is more comprehensive as relatively few companies have any kind of credit rating.

Companies around the world have complained about getting credit. The volume of new loans arranged for companies globally has fallen off a cliff this year and deteriorated even faster during the past two months. Syndicated lending to investment-grade and junk-rated borrowers has roughly halved in both Europe and the US compared with last year but remained stable in Asia, according to data providers Dealogic.

One difference in this downturn is that larger companies appear to be suffering as much as their smaller counterparts.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/935e5284-c...nclick_check=1


Ma la "mitica" Spagna non doveva sorpassare tutti?

[samson]

Non è che gli economisti ci abbiano preso tanto negli ultimi tempi!

[Zdenek]

Ma la "mitica" Spagna non doveva sorpassare tutti?

Ma il tema non era il secondo sorpasso su GB?

[jamaal74]

....stai a vedere che l'italietta manifatturiera sopravvivera', i soloni nordici delle grandi corporate "finanziario commerciali"...li vedo male.

[Zdenek]

....stai a vedere che l'italietta manifatturiera sopravvivera', i soloni nordici delle grandi corporate "finanziario commerciali"...li vedo male.

Dici?
E se si organizzano per una piccola guerra risollevatrice?

Noi chi presentiamo, Bossi e l'ingegnere gestionale dei miei stivali?

[Tristano]

The CEBR also calculates that China has effectively already overtaken Germany to become the world's third largest economy, and will surpass Japan in 2010. Again, however, there remain some question marks over the scale of the impending slowdown (or economic crisis) facing China

Insomma ecco la soluzione alla crisi. Serve un governo comunista