STRATFOR: Previsioni decennali

[Amati75]

Come gia' in passato, vediamo cosa predice STRATFOR.

Quelle postate in passato, abbiamo visto come molte delle previsioni fate siano risultate corrette ed altre, ovviamente no, ma risultano comunque interessanti come base di discussione:


THE world’s superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020.

These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies.
The Decade Forecast report, compiled by private-intelligence firm Stratfor, reveals the issues set to emerge across the globe within the next decade.
Some of the predictions have already begun to come true, including that the EU will be hit with a range of problems — like a rise in nationalism and social unrest — and a slowing down of the Chinese economy.
Stratfor, which successfully predicted Europe’s inability to cope with the financial crisis and the US-jihadi war, also predicts the US, while taking a step back from global issues, is set to remain the top pre-eminent power.
However it predicts many countries face tough times ahead with war, changing politics and declining economies all playing a part in the global shake up that lay ahead.
Among its predictions are:


1. THE US-JIHADI WAR WILL COME TO AN END
By 2020, the two major wars in the Middle East will have largely subsided although it will be a lengthy process.
Stratfor also warn terror attacks will continue to cause havoc, with some being largely successful.
It predicts Islamic militants will continue to be a problem, especially across the Middle East but does reveal militants will remain largely contained.



2. EUROPE WILL SUFFER
Europe’s diverse systems and demographics will continue to place enormous strain on EU’s institutions.
National leaders will find themselves under increasing pressure from its people, putting a strain on inter-country relationships.
“The main political tendency will be away from multinational solutions to a greater nationalism driven by divergent and diverging economic, social and cultural forces,” Stratfor warns.
The European Union will never return to full strength following last year’s financial crisis and will remain largely divided for the next decade.
Increased nationalism and a rise in Euro scepticism will also hurt the EU with countries looking at solving their own problems before looking outward.
While the EU will continue to exist, its political and miliary operations “will be governed primarily by bilateral or limited multilateral relationships that will be small in
scope and not binding”.
Nations will increasingly adopt protectionist policies as well as look at ways of further securing borders, something which has already begun to take place as Europe grapples with the biggest refugee crisis since World War II.


3. RUSSIA AS WE KNOW IT ‘WON’T EXIST’
The next decade will see Russia “seeking to secure itself” before economic decline hits, Stratfor warn as it continues to act aggressively in the region.
Seeing itself under the gun, it will appear even more aggressive and territorial as it continues to exert its power internally and externally, but it will come at a cost.
“Russia will also seek to reintegrate the former Soviet republics into some coherent entity in order to delay its demographic problems, expand its market and above all reabsorb some territorial buffers,” the forecast predicts.
Such action will make its neighbours anxious both in terms of national security and rapidly shifting economic policies.
Rising military cost, declining oil prices and internal issues will all weaken Russia further with its inability to control the federation creating a vacuum.
While Russia won’t split up as such, Moscow’s influence will weaken significantly, which in turn will create a raft of semi autonomous regions.
“We expect Moscow’s authority to weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia,” the report warns.
“It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form.”
Countries including Poland, Hungary and Romania will also look to recover territory gained by Russia throughout various times in history.




4. TURKEY WILL EMERGE POWERFUL
The world is already beginning to see a decline in the nation states created by Europe across North Africa and the Middle East with the US unable to solve the endless internal fighting taking place.
Turkey, whose southern border is close to the troubles, will be slowly drawn into the fighting, Stratfor predict, emerging as both a major regional power and an increasing competitor with Iran.
America will look to shore up support with Turkey, which will become a major force across Asia and the Middle East.
“Whatever its reluctance, Turkey cannot withstand years of chaos across its border, and there will be no other country to carry the burden,” Stratfor reveal.


5. CHINA WILL SLOW DOWN
According to Stratfor, China is at the end of its high-growth/low wage cycle and has entered a new stage known as “the new normal” which will in turn be followed by a period of much slower growth.
“China will continue to be a major economic force but will not be the dynamic engine of global growth it once was,” the report reads.
Instead a new group of 16 nations which includes most of South-East Asia, East Africa and part of Latin America will emerge in China’s place as an economic powerhouse.
According to the report, China will also lose some of its military might as Japan becomes more dominant in the region.


6. AMERICA WILL ‘DISENGAGE’
While it remains a major economic, political and military power, the United States will “be less engaged than the past”, with the powerhouse learning some vital lessons from history.
This in turn will lead it to be more cautious in matters concerning economic and military matters, having “learned the limits of power in trying to pacify hostile countries”.
Instead the US will be more selective with what issues it becomes involved with.
“It will face major strategic threats with proportional power, but it will not serve the role of first responded as it has in recent years,” Stratfor predict.


7. GERMANY WILL LOSE POWER
While the European powerhouse has emerged fairly strong from the financial crisis, it remains very vulnerable with exports making up half of its GDP, 50 per cent of which flows to other EU nations.
However, the world’s fourth largest economic power is hostage to the economic wellbeing and competitive environment in which it operates, Stratfor said.
Protectionist policies will affect its exports leading to an extended economic decline which will reduce Germany’s influence within the next decade.


8. POLAND WILL INCREASE POWER
According to Stratfor, Poland has had impressive economic and political growth in recent years.
The eastern European state will not only continue such growth but will emerge as a key player as it diversifies its trade relationships.
Such a move will be bad news for Russia as Poland is predicted to come out as the leader of an anti-Russia coalition that would, significantly, include Romania during the first half of this decade, Stratfor state.
“In the second half of the decade, this alliance will play a major role in reshaping the Russian borderlands and retrieving lost territories,” it warns.
This will lead to a powerful alliance with America, which will look to shore up relationships with a stabilising force.
9. MIDDLE EAST WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
The nation states created by the west will collapse, Stratfor predict, with some countries devolving into factions at war with each other.
But the report highlights while a power vacuum will continue to exist, jihadist groups will be contained by internal divisions.
The United States will step further away from its influence in the region, and Turkey, which has so far remained out of most of the conflict, will be forced to step in and act as the region’s stabilising force.


The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia ?won?t exist?






The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia ?won?t exist?

[paulhowe]

Credo che le previsioni sulla russia siano piuttosto confuse. Non credo che siano destinati ad uno "smembramento", ma sicuramente il sogno Putiniano di un ricompattamento dell' ex impero Urss sia destinato a fallire.

Concordo sul marcato rallentamento economico della Cina. Dubbi sulle potenzialita reali della Turchia.

L'europa mediterranea e' destinata a soffrire molto nei prossimi 10 anni. Grosse turbolenze in medio oriente, certamente, l'Iran guadagnera piu di qualche posizione.

Gli USA probabilmente valorizzeranno molto il continente americano, ricchissimo di risorse e resteranno la superpotenza talassocratica.

[AIM54 Phoenix]

troppo pessimisti sulla Russia.. troppo ottimisti sulla Turchia

[kodiak]

La Turchia non è stata capace di azzeccare una mossa, e dico una in questi 10 anni di politica estera, da Gaza allla Libia, dall'Egitto all'Iraq, vedremo in Siria ma mi sembra che anche qua abbiano preso il cetriolone.
Economicamente si rafforzeranno ma con un vicinato simile e la questione curda ancora da risolvere niente sogni di gloria.

I polacchi all'arrembaggio della Russia non ci credo nemmeno se lo vedo

Totalmente impossibile fare predizioni sull'andamento del jhiadismo internazionale in anni di transizione come i nostri, per ora l'unica cosa chiara è che la base umana e l'ideologia dei jhiadisti vari si sono espansi in modo esponenziale dal 2010, vedremo.

Wishful thinking sorosiano sulla Russia che collassa a vantaggio di Romania(?), Ungheria( wtf ?!?!) e Polonia( quando mai hanno comandato ad est di Smolensk??)

[vostok]

la polonia crescerà di potere? e come? chiedendoci altri 90 miliardi ogni sei anni come sta facendo ora?

THE US-JIHADI WAR WILL COME TO AN END ; questa l ho già sentita da bush

ma stratfor non era quel sito che usava un satellite privato per mostrare le prove dei russi in ucraina mostrando foto ultra sgranate con i scarabocchi e poi stranamente gli aerei russi in siria li fotografava bene solo perchè gli erano state date coordinate giuste?

ovvero queste

[Desmond]

Dovevano aver bevuto quando si sono occupati di Russia, Polonia, Ungheria e Romania.

[tafazzo]

sono solo cazzate

[kodiak]

Sulla Cina vedremo, mi sembra anche qua prematuro tirare conclusioni, il prossimo quinquennio dirà di più.

[Amati75]

Stratfor rilascia queste analisi, non e' a prima volta, ed ovviamente non ci azzeccano al 100% ed in tutto, ma hanno un piu' che discreto track record, come si fece notare qui:

https://forum.termometropolitico.it/...l#post14173491




https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/de...cast-2015-2025

[kodiak]

Prima di fare certe previsioni sarebbe meglio capire dov'è l'Ungheria, altrimenti...