Focus Libano

[Mitteleuropa]

ma si stanno sparando per strada?

perchè il tweet in arabo dice che sono militanti del partito di hariri che stanno sparando

si. Stanno avvenendo parecchi scontri a Beirut. Ieri sera c'e' stata questa sparatoria tra il movimento di Hariri e i militanti di un gruppo Sufi chiamato al-Ahbash alleato del movimento Amal

[Mitteleuropa]

As Lebanon prepares to vote, here’s a look at its power-sharing system

Candidates are vying for 128 seats that are divided among 11 religious groups according to a strict sectarian power-sharing system. (Reuters), 4 May 2018

Lebanon holds its first parliamentary election in nine years on Sunday, with candidates vying for 128 seats that are divided among 11 religious groups according to a strict sectarian power-sharing system. Here are the main players:

Future movement
Future is led by Saad al-Hariri, Lebanon’s leading Sunni and prime minister since 2016. Hariri took on his political role after his father Rafik al-Hariri was assassinated in 2005.

The early years of his political career were defined by confrontation with the heavily armed Shiite group Hezbollah. A UN-backed court later charged five Hezbollah members over the Hariri killing. The group denies any role.

Hariri still opposes the Iran-backed Hezbollah but these days says its arsenal is an issue that is bigger than Lebanon and should be solved through regional dialogue. His focus is now on reviving and reforming the moribund economy.

He enjoys backing from the West, notably France which intervened last November when it is widely acknowledged that Saudi Arabia - once a close ally of the Hariri family - forced him to resign, though Riyadh and Hariri publicly deny it.

Hezbollah
Hezbollah is the most powerful group in Lebanon. It was founded in 1982 by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and is deemed a terrorist group by the United States. It has grown even more powerful since 2012 as a key player in the Syrian war, fighting in support of President Bashar al-Assad.

Hezbollah entered parliament for the first time in the 1990s. It also has ministers in government.

Free Patriotic Movement
The FPM was established by Maronite Christian politician Michel Aoun, a former army commander who led one of two rival governments in the final years of the 1975-90 civil war.

Aoun became president in 2016 as part of the political deal that made Hariri prime minister. The FPM is led by Aoun’s son-in-law, Gebran Bassil and is allied to Hezbollah.

Amal movement
The Shiite Amal Movement was a civil war adversary of Hezbollah but has been closely aligned with the group since the conflict ended. It is led by Nabih Berri, who has been speaker of parliament since 1992. Amal also has close ties to Assad.

Progressive Socialist Party
The PSP is led by Walid Jumblatt, the strongest figure in the Lebanese Druze minority. Jumblatt inherited his role from his assassinated father, Kamal, and was a prominent civil war leader. Jumblatt is in the process of handing authority to his son, Taymour, who is running in his place in the election.

Lebanese Forces
The LF led by Maronite Christian politician Samir Geagea emerged from a powerful civil war militia by the same name.

Geagea led the LF through the final years of the war after the 1982 assassination of Bashir Gemayel, its founder. Geagea, the only Lebanese militia leader to serve jail time over civil war violence, is the most significant Christian opponent of Hezbollah.

Kateab
The Kateab, also known as the Phalange Party, is led by Maronite Christian politician Sami Gemayel, who took over the leadership from his father, former President Amin Gemayel.

Sami Gemayel moved to the fore after the assassination of his brother, Pierre, in 2006 during a wave of killings targeting opponents of Syrian influence in Lebanon.

Marada movement
Marada is led by Maronite Christian politician Suleiman Franjieh, a close Hezbollah ally and a friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Hariri initially backed Franjieh for the presidency in 2016 but the deal did not gain wider backing. Instead, Hariri struck the deal that made Aoun head of state.

[Mitteleuropa]

Seats in the Parliament are confessionally distributed but elected by universal suffrage. Each religious community has an allotted number of seats in the Parliament. They do not represent only their co-religionists, however; all candidates in a particular constituency, regardless of religious affiliation, must receive a plurality of the total vote, which includes followers of all confessions. The system was designed to minimize inter-sectarian competition and maximize cross-confessional cooperation: candidates are opposed only by co-religionists, but must seek support from outside of their own faith in order to be elected.

[Mitteleuropa]

[Mitteleuropa]

[Mitteleuropa]

Here are few things you need to know before reading the below:
– Lebanon is now divided into 15 major electoral districts, made up of 27 sub-districts.
– The number of MPs is still 128 and their term is still limited four years.
– Expats will NOT get any seats in the upcoming elections.
– Elections are likely to take place on May 6 2018, the first elections in eight years.
– No women quota was adopted.
– The new law will create a proportional representation system for parliament.
– Voters will get to select a full list as well as choose one candidate as their preferential vote.

The districts are divided as follows:
Beirut I (8 seats):
3 Armenian Orthodox
1 Armenian Catholic
1 Maronite
1 Catholic
1 Orthodox
1 Minority Christian

Beirut II (11 seats):
6 Sunni
2 Shiite
1 Druze
1 Orthodox
1 Protestant

Baalbeck-Hermel (10 seats):
6 Shiite
2 Sunni
1 Maronite
1 Catholic

Akkar (7 seats):
3 Sunni
2 Orthodox
1 Maronite
1 Alawite

Tripoli/Minyeh/Donniyeh (11 seats):
8 Sunni
1 Maronite
1 Orthodox
1 Alawite

Bsharre/Zgharta/Batroun/Koura (10 seats):
7 Maronite
3 Orthodox

Jbeil/Kesrouan (8 seats):
7 Maronite
1 Shiite

Nabatieh/Marjayoun/Bint Jbeil/Hasbaya (11 seats):
8 Shiite
1 Sunni
1 Orthodox
1 Druze

West Bekaa/Rashaya (6 seats):
2 Sunni
1 Maronite
1 Orthodox
1 Shiite
1 Druze

Zahle (7 seats):
2 Catholic
1 Armenian Orthodox
1 Maronite
1 Orthodox
1 Shiite
1 Sunni

Aley/Chouf (13 seats):
5 Maronite
4 Druze
2 Sunni
1 Orthodox
1 Catholic

Metn (8 seats):
4 Maronite
2 Orthodox
1 Catholic
1 Armenian Orthodox

Sidon/Jezzine (5 seats):
2 Maronite
2 Sunni
1 Catholic

Zahrani/Tyre (7 seats):
6 Shiite
1 Catholic

Baabda (6 seats):
3 Maronite
2 Shiite
1 Druze

How will the vote count happen?
Disclaimer: Some names are hypothetical, others are true, but the numbers are not representative of the true electoral state of each. This is only an example.

Beirut I:
Total Voters: 80.000
Total Seats: 8 (3 Armenian Orthodox, 1 Armenian Catholic, 1 Maronite, 1 Catholic, 1 Orthodox, 1 Minorite)



PV: Preferential Votes
The number of seats for each list:

The electoral vote is equal to: 80000 (number of voters) / 8 (number of seats) = 10000 which means that every 10000 votes are equal to one seat.

List A gets 37000/10000 = 3 seats and 7000 votes left
List B gets 23000/10000 = 2 seats and 3000 votes left
List C gets 20000/10000 – 2 seats and no votes left

However, there is still one seat left, it will go to List A who has the biggest number of votes left.

The final result is:
List A: 4 seats
List B: 2 seats
List C: 2 seats

Now how to choose the winners? We take all the names and the preferential votes they got and put them in order. In other district where we have many caza, we have to turn the preferential votes into percentages because in the North for example (Becharre – Batroun – Koura – Zghorta) every caza has a different number of voters. 2000 in Becharre can be equal to 5000 in Koura.



As you can see, 10 candidates lost because the seat of their sect has been taken. This law has been adapted to fit the Lebanese sectarian mosaic, and therefore; the problem is not with the law itself, but rather with our sectarian regime. Without the sectarian regime, the first candidates of each list would have won.

[vostok]

se le elezioni non vanno come vogliono i loro vicini a sud, i libanesi preparassero gli elmetti

[Guy Fawkes]

si. Stanno avvenendo parecchi scontri a Beirut. Ieri sera c'e' stata questa sparatoria tra il movimento di Hariri e i militanti di un gruppo Sufi chiamato al-Ahbash alleato del movimento Amal

OK, i sufiti armati mi mancavano...
Francamente. a questo punto direi che il limite tra tragedia e farsi si sta pericolosamente facendo sempre più vicino.

[vostok]

OK, i sufiti armati mi mancavano...
Francamente. a questo punto direi che il limite tra tragedia e farsi si sta pericolosamente facendo sempre più vicino.

i sufi sono alleati degli sciiti in ottica anti wahabita e salafita

tutti i ceceni che fanno parte dell esercito russo impegnato in siria sono tutti sufi

[kodiak]

Ma Jumblat è ancora in giro ?