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North Korea test-fired a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile Mars -15 (Hwasong-15)
2017-11-30 West Flower Club


Nov. 29 / North Korea today said it successfully tested the new intercontinental ballistic missile Mars-15 with a range that covers all parts of the United States. This routine test of Pyongyang's unusual election to midnight with the new location reflects the authorities' attempt to make the whereabouts of the elusive and the interdiction of the movement halfway.

Analysts and officials are waiting for Pyongyang authorities to release test shots and videos to identify any differences between the Hwasong-15 and North Korea's previous missiles.

North Korea said the missile was launched on a steep orbit, flying 53 minutes, reaching a height of 4,475 kilometers and a distance of 950 kilometers. This is the first test shoot of North Korea in 75 days.

The U.S.-based Union of Concerned Scientists said in a statement: "If (today's) data are correct, a missile could fly more than 13,000 kilometers on standard orbit instead of orbiting high." In theory, the entire territory of the United States is within North Korea's missile range, including Washington and New York.



North Korea fired a missile today from the flat city of South Huanan, about 30 km north of Pyongyang. This is the first time that North Korea has fired missiles at this location.

North Korea's previous missile tests were conducted in the early hours of the morning. Today it is at a late-night North Korean operation, at about 2.28 a.m. local time (2:17 a.m., Taiwan time).

The location and timing of the test operation may reflect Pyongyang's continued efforts to test weapons on the go, in addition to providing more realistic test results, as well as preventing other countries from predicting the whereabouts of North Korea and thereby obstructing the missile launch.

The strategic and international research center headquartered in the United States said: "This test launch is unusual in that it is executed late at night, perhaps reflecting North Korea's desire to avoid being intercepted by the U.S. ballistic missile defense system."

The first two intercontinental ballistic missile tests were conducted in July and were fired from Pinghyeon Airport, Pinghyeon North Road and from the dance floor in Yongjiang.

North Korean state media reported that on July 4, Pyongyang authorities launched the first intercontinental ballistic missile Mars-14 flying 39 minutes and a height of 2,802 kilometers and a distance of 933 kilometers.

North Korean state media said the second test of the Mars-14 was on July 28, showing even better performance. The missile flew for about 47 minutes, at a height of 3724 kilometers and a distance of 998 kilometers. Analysts said this test-fire show that the missile range of up to 10,000 kilometers or more, the United States West Bank may be in the range.

After North Korea tested the missile today, Kim Jong Un announced the successful development of Mars -15 and North Korea's "historic undertaking to finally realize the country's nuclear arsenal." However, international observers say it is unclear whether this missile will carry multiple loads or whether it will carry large nuclear warheads as far as the United States.

Although North Korea has yet to prove its skill in mastering the technology of returning warheads to Earth's atmosphere, experts believe North Korea has at least reached the threshold of developing an effective inter-continental nuclear attack.

AFP said Louise, leader of the East Asian nuclear nonproliferation program at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, said: "North Korea has the ability to attack the United States by using nuclear weapons. We do not need to like this but will have to learn to coexist with it."



Analysts have confirmed that the Hwasong-15 launched yesterday by the ICBM is taller and wider, capable of carrying a larger warhead and launching it from its launch pad, according to photos published by North Korea.




Non-proliferation Research Center researcher Michael Duitsman said: "This is a very large missile. "I'm not saying" a lot to North Korea. " Only a handful of countries can produce missiles of this size, and North Korea has just joined the club. Photo: North Korea dictator Kim Jong-un



Analysts say the size and design of the missiles may also make it possible to carry larger warheads and more powerful return vehicles. Photo: Kim Jong-un next to his latest toy




After launching yesterday, North Korean officials told CNN that Stalinist countries are still planning to detonate the "large-scale hydrogen bomb" on the ground.

Compared with liquid fuel systems, which require long periods of preparation, ICFB's solid fuel system will be a significant development and may allow Koreans to transport and fire missiles faster.

The photos appear to show at least two large nozzles in the first phase of the missile, rather than one large and a few smaller nozzles on the Huatsong-14.

David Wright, headquartered in the United States non-profit scientific advocacy group "about scientists Union," said: "The first phase seems to basically use the same situation with [Hwasong-14], but there are two engines. "The second phase seems to carry more than twice as many propellants , and the combination of these two things means that it is indeed a new and more powerful missile.

Analysts say the size and design of missiles may also make it possible to carry larger warheads and more powerful return vehicles.

Beimides said that the nose of the missile appeared to be more clumsy than previous versions, which could signify the development of re-entry vehicles.




New engine system

The main engine of the Hwasong-14 missile is equipped with four independent thrusters for steering.

But its successor seems to have used only two engines, with no separate propulsion as evidence of direction.

This system is called "gimbal" meaning that the main propulsion vents can move left and right and determine the trajectory of the missile.

Schmoller said the progress "is definitely a big adjustment."

He told CNN: "This means they may have led the engine, something we have never seen before."

"Gimbaling is something we have never seen before in North Korea and if we are right then this will be North Korea's new brand.

He added: "They are looking at the rest of the world to see what works and what does not, and apply it to their plans.

The missile has been compared with the first American Enceladus II that was launched in 1962.

It is the largest and heaviest missile in the history of the United States and capable of firing 9 megaton warheads for more than 9,000 miles.

Titan II was also used to transport payloads for NASA, NOAA and Air Force's Defense Meteorological Satellite programs.


Mobile launch vehicle

North Korea repeatedly boasted in its announcement yesterday that Huashan 15 was launched by a domestic erected launch vehicle.

Its picture is back.

Being able to manufacture its own mobile launch vehicle, TELs, will keep the North from the needs of other countries, such as China, which is crucial considering the tightening of international sanctions Pyongyang is facing.




North Korea repeatedly boasted in its announcement yesterday that Huashan 15 was launched by a domestic erected launch vehicle. Its picture is back



Western analysts say the truck is easier to move and launch from remote, unpredictable locations. This made it harder to find and destroy Hawasong-15 before launching.

Kim Jong-un said that this large car is "one hundred percent" of North Korean products.

Larger payload

North Korea also claimed that the Huashan-15 can carry "super heavy" nuclear loads on any of the U.S. mainland targets.

Re-entry in the photo, nose cone really looks great.

However, the heavier the load, the smaller the range.




North Korea also claimed that the Huashan-15 can carry "super heavy" nuclear loads on any of the U.S. mainland targets. Re-entry in the photo, nose cone really looks great



In order to reach the west coast, North Korea needs to reduce its weight to 500 kilos. Whether it can do this is still questionable. Pictured: Launch pad missiles




The missile flew for about 50 minutes and traveled 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) to an altitude of 2,800 miles above sea level before splashing over the Sea of ​​Japan

Leading missile specialist Michael Elleman suggested in this respected 38 North blog that the estimated 8000-mile voyage at Hwaseu 15 assumed a payload of about 150 kg, perhaps more than the real North could provide Nuclear load is much lighter.

To reach the west coast, the north needs to reduce its weight to 500 kilos. Whether it can do this is still questionable.

Allenman estimates that Kim Jong-un's nuclear bomb should not weigh more than 350 kilograms if it is to attack the western edge of the continental United States.

"The payload of 600 kilograms hardly reaches Seattle.


This map shows the estimated maximum range for North Korea's new Hesong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile, which can hit virtually anywhere in the world, except in parts of South and South Africa. But U.S. officials said more analysis is needed, especially the missile guidance system




North Korea said the new missile reached a height of 2,780 miles, more than 10 times the height of the International Space Station. Pictured: What happened to Pyongyang yesterday was news for Pyongyang



This photo shows us the size of the Hwasong-15 missile on its launcher. The two phases of the rocket are also clearly visible - one is the large start-up phase that takes off from the ground, and the other is the smaller phase that is used to maneuver the rocket in the air, with their white lines in a staggered position




In the pictures taken after the successful launch of the ballistic missile, Kim Jong-un held a cigarette in his hand and was regarded as laughing. But how much better than his previous missiles?




The subordinates around the North Korean leader took a keen eye and saw the rocket falling into the waters of Japan yesterday

North Korea said the new missile reached a height of 2,780 miles, more than 10 times the height of the International Space Station, flying 590 miles over a 53-minute flight, higher than any of North Korea's missiles, in waters off Japan.

However, North Korea seems likely to provide this opportunity if further analysis of the new missile is needed.








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Although North Korea has yet to prove its skill in mastering the technology of returning warheads to Earth's atmosphere, experts believe North Korea has at least reached the threshold of developing an effective inter-continental nuclear attack.

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North Korea Says It Has 'Completed' Its Nuclear Program
What does that mean?


Kim Hong-Ji / Reuters
URI FRIEDMAN NOV 29, 2017 GLOBAL
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On Wednesday, after conducting its longest-range missile test yet, North Korea declared itself a globe-spanning nuclear-weapons power and insisted the United States deal with it on those terms. Kim Jong Un’s government claimed that it had launched a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)—a “Hwasong-15”—capable of “carrying [a] super-heavy [nuclear] warhead and hitting the whole mainland of the U.S.” It quoted the Dear Leader, who announced that his nation had “finally realized the great historic cause of completing the state nuclear force.”

So … do we all go home now? Is that how this ends—with North Korea sprinting across the finish line, the United States panting behind it, and the two countries learning to deter one another just as nuclear-armed states have since Little Boy and Fat Man fell on Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

Donald Trump, for his part, isn’t conceding defeat. “This situation will be handled!” he tweets, promising tougher international sanctions against the North. Top officials in his administration, including the national-security adviser, the CIA director, and the president himself, have repeatedly stated that North Korea must be prevented—by all means necessary, including military action—from developing the means to place a nuclear warhead on a long-range missile that can reach the United States. They’ve argued that a world in which Kim Jong Un’s rogue regime can hold the U.S. government hostage with the threat of nuclear war—or worse still, actually fire those nukes at Americans—is unacceptable.

But North Korea’s message this week boils down to this: It’s no use shutting the doors when the horse has already left the barn.

RELATED STORY

North Korea's Boldest Missile Test Yet

“We’re now at a point where they have tested an ICBM that can clearly hit the U.S. … They’ve tested a nuclear weapon that had a couple hundred kilotons’ yield, which they say is a miniaturized thermonuclear weapon, which kind of looks like a miniaturized thermonuclear weapon to me,” said Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. “It’s done. It’s over.”

The window for stopping North Korea from acquiring the capacity to threaten the U.S. mainland with nukes slammed shut on July 4, when North Korea tested its first ICBM, the Hwasong-14, Lewis argued. “The whole point of a preventive war is to do it before they get the nuclear weapons. If you do it after, it’s just a plain old nuclear war.”

When Kim Jong Un speaks of “completing the state nuclear force,” Lewis reckons that he is referring to meeting all the milestones—the Hwasong-12, -14, and -15— in a missile-development program that the Kim government committed to some time ago, similar to how China followed a plan called “four missiles in eight years” in the 1960s. Details are still emerging about the latest missile test, but what Lewis finds most significant so far is that North Korea claims to have fired the Hwasong-15 from an 18-wheel truck that it manufactured itself, rather than relying on 16-wheel trucks from China that it had used for its two previous ICBM tests in July. That means depriving North Korea of road-mobile launch pads is no longer as simple as demanding that China stop selling big trucks to its neighbor. And it enables the North Koreans to build more long-range missiles since they’re no longer restricted to missiles small enough to fit on imported Chinese vehicles.

“In my conversation with the North Koreans, they’ve been very clear that their key goal is to demonstrate they’re capable of striking the continental U.S. with a nuclear-tipped missile” in order to deter a U.S. attack, said Suzanne DiMaggio of New America, who has participated in a series of unofficial nuclear talks with North Koreans affiliated with the Kim government. “They have told us that their goal is not to amass a giant nuclear arsenal, but to have just enough to safeguard the regime, and then they will turn their attention to economic development of the country. Of course, this is what they told us. We should fully test that.”

“This most recent launch tells us they’re well on their way to achieving that goal,” DiMaggio said.


Reuters
These advances, however, don’t necessarily indicate that North Korea is done with its nuclear and missile tests. “This isn’t like, ‘We hit our goal. It’s good.’ It’s like, ‘We hit our goal. Suck it,’” Lewis told me. “It’s triumphal.” He expects North Korea to continue experimenting with the Hwasong-15, solid-fuel long-range missiles (the long-rage tests so far have involved liquid fuel), and underground nuclear tests. He can even imagine North Korea test-firing a missile with a nuclear warhead into the ocean, as the Americans, Chinese, and Russians did in the 20th century, if the Kim government feels the need to extinguish doubts about its nuclear capabilities. (While North Korean officials have threatened to detonate a nuclear weapon over the Pacific Ocean, DiMaggio suspects that they won’t follow through with it because it would carry too great a risk of retaliation by the United States or other countries.)

“Virtually no one finishes their nuclear-weapons program and [says], ‘Well, our work is done here,’” Lewis noted.

Nor does virtually any country negotiate away a nuclear arsenal as advanced as North Korea’s is now. “The North Koreans are not giving up their nuclear weapons,” said Lewis. They appear willing to talk, but not about the U.S. government’s goal of removing nuclear weapons from North Korea. DiMaggio believes Kim Jong Un may make an even grander declaration about the completion of North Korea’s nuclear force during his New Year’s address or the Winter Olympics in South Korea in February, and then express willingness to “return to the negotiating table to try to extract an array of security and economic concessions” from the United States and its partners.

But if the “completion” of North Korea’s nuclear program changes anything, Lewis argued, it’s less that it will make North Korean leaders more open to talks than that it should encourage U.S. leaders to “accept that [North Korea] can target the United States with nuclear weapons” and to lower their expectations for what diplomacy can achieve.

“Even though [America’s North Korea] policy has failed miserably, and we find ourselves in this really undesirable situation with a nuclear-armed North Korea, we still have interests,” Lewis said. “And we have to pursue those interests. The problem right now is we’re not pursuing our interests because we don’t want to admit we screwed it up.”

More modest and realistic U.S. goals for talks with North Korea could include reducing tensions between the countries and clearly communicating what specific North Korean actions would trigger U.S. military responses, Lewis said. DiMaggio sketched out a scenario in which American diplomats enter into direct negotiations with their North Korean counterparts without preconditions, scaling back U.S.-South Korean military exercises in exchange for the North Koreans halting their nuclear and missile tests and offering assurances that they won’t transfer weapons of mass destruction or related technology to other countries, or organizations such as terrorist groups. “We’re a long way off to anything that would resemble a dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear program,” she said.

“I get it—that’s not denuclearization. That’s not the big, exciting agreement,” Lewis admitted. “But not dying in a nuclear war is a real interest.”