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Demystifying the ‘Fracklog’
Number of uncompleted shale wells will drop as oil prices recover
©Reuters
Sometimes new words are useful additions to the language. Sometimes they can create confusion. “Fracklog” is the catchy neologism for the backlog of US shale wells that have been drilled but not yet brought into production.
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More prosaically known as “drilled but uncompleted” or “waiting on completions”, these wells still need to be fracked and fitted with production equipment for the oil to flow.
Interest in the fracklog started picking up last month when
EOG Resources, the largest US shale producer, said
it would “intentionally delay” completing some of its wells.
Some analysts think this tactic, spread across the industry, will be significant later in the year. They argue that as soon as US crude prices recover a little, companies will start production from those uncompleted wells, bringing a rush of extra supply on to the market. This could stifle any
recovery in prices.
There may be something in this argument. EOG expects to add about 85 uncompleted wells this year, while
Anadarko Petroleum said recently it would drill but not complete 125 wells this year.
Apache said it would defer some completions, without giving a number, while
Chesapeake Energy said it planned to build a “little bit of inventory” in uncompleted wells in the Eagle Ford shale.
For some producers, deferring completions makes sense. Completing a well can account for between a half and three-quarters of its total cost, so slowing completions is a quick way to start delivering the
cuts in capital spending.
The contango in crude futures, with prices significantly higher for next year than for immediate sales, also creates an incentive to leave oil in the ground and extract it at a later date.
And with activity slowing sharply, the cost of completing wells could be lower later in the year, too, as the companies providing fracking and other services cut their rates.
However, it is still unclear just how widespread the practice of deferring completions really is.
The diversity of US shale producers makes it difficult to generalise about their strategies. Extrapolating from large, financially sound businesses such as EOG and Anadarko is particularly hazardous.
There are likely to be many shale producers, with debt payments to meet or loans to repay, that cannot afford the luxury of a fracklog. They may also have commitments with drilling contractors that mean there are limits on how quickly they can lay down rigs. If they have paid for the rigs already, they might as well use them.
125
Number of wells Anadarko Petroleum said it would drill but not complete this year
Indeed, other leading shale oil producers including
Marathon Oil,
Whiting Petroleum and
Hess, have said they do not plan to defer completions at all.
The number of wells “waiting on completion services” has been rising sharply in North Dakota, home to the prolific Bakken shale formation. They have risen from an average of about 650 last October to 825 at the end of January.
Some of that increase may, however, be due to tighter regulations on flaring. In the fourth quarter of last year and again at the start of this year North Dakota cut the proportion of associated gas from oil wells that can be burnt off, forcing producers to work out other solutions.
Others may also be waiting for the cuts in North Dakota’s state taxes on
oil production that will kick in once West Texas Intermediate crude has been below $55.09 for five consecutive months, a point that looks likely to be reached in May.
Wood Mackenzie, the consultancy, expects that across the US, the fracklog will actually be lower at the end of the year than its estimate of about 3,000 today
US exploration and production companies may be able to sustain their production this year, but only through intense efforts to improve productivity and cut costs. Expecting them to coast to growth on a cushion of drilled but uncompleted wells would be a mistake.
The Commodities Note is an online commentary on the industry from the Financial Times
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