Sul Deficit USA e ristagno UE

[Amati75]

sul forum Italians del corriere ho trovato questo intervneto interessante:

Euro-ristagno: pragmatismo, non dogmatismo

Caro Beppe,
ancora sul tema euro-ristagno: tra 1970 e 2001 la crescita economica è stata identica tra Eurolandia e USA (3,1% annuo). Nel 2002-4 USA e resto del mondo sono invece cresciuti del 10% totale, Eurolandia del 3%. Perché? Il dollaro è sceso del 34% contro l’euro ma solo del 12% medio contro le altre valute (leggi Asia). L'euro si è rivalutato contro TUTTO il mondo, in media del 23%. In realtà l'interscambio USA-Eurolandia pesa solo il 15%; il cambio euro-$ farebbe poco danno se l'Asia non fosse legata al $ (la Cina ha il cambio fisso, il Giappone vende yen per limitare il rialzo etc...). Le politiche USA (surplus federale divenuto deficit, tassi all'1%, deficit commerciale record) hanno creato paure di inflazione e di difficoltà nel finanziare i deficit. Da qui il calo del $, ma le valute asiatiche sono "bloccate" e l'effetto è stato sproporzionato sull'euro - oggi pesantemente sopravvalutato. Per inciso, gli squilibri USA sono fantasie. L'inflazione resta bassa; il deficit federale è 3,6% su PIL come per Francia e Germania e al contrario di queste si ridurrà nel 2005. Il debito/PIL è 40% in USA, 70% in Eurolandia e 140% (!) in Giappone. E il deficit commerciale? Nel 2004 è 600 mld $, col che il debito netto estero arriva a 3.000. Ma gli USA hanno un PIL di 12.000 miliardi di dollari e beni (immobili, aziende, infrastrutture) per 50.000. Per il Nobel Prescott "chi dice che il deficit commerciale USA è un problema non capisce cose che si insegnano alle matricole di economia": un dentista con un reddito netto di 120.000 euro, che possiede casa e studio senza un soldo di mutuo, affoga nei debiti se ha un'auto da 30.000 in leasing? L'errore BCE? Tassi al 2%, pur ai minimi, sono comunque eccessivi se l'economia è ferma. Tanto più che l'euro a 1,33 $ equivale a una pesante stretta creditizia. Non si fa poi nulla contro la rivalutazione perché "gli interventi sui cambi senza accordo USA sono inutili": ma allora perché funzionano al Giappone? Vero quanto scrive M. Toscano il 15 dicembre: il mandato BCE è "preservare la stabilità di lungo termine dei prezzi". Ma qui è la differenza con il mandato Fed: MASSIMIZZARE la crescita COMPATIBILE con la stabilità dei prezzi. L'inflazione incontrollata è deleteria, ma la BCE sta bloccando lo sviluppo per evitare rischi inflattivi inesistenti. Ci sarà il modo di iniettare il pragmatismo anglosassone Fed nel dogmatismo teutonico BCE...

http://www.corriere.it/solferino/sev...4-12-19/06.spm

[catilina71]

in effetti non si capisce bene cosa facciano i parrucconi della bce.

cmq la situazione economica usa non è così rosea. ho letto diverse opinioni di gente allarmata.

[Amati75]

Businesses Boost Orders of Durable Goods: U.S. Economy Preview
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- New orders for durable goods increased at U.S. factories last month, consumer spending advanced and home sales are on track to reach a record this year, signs the economy is powering ahead, economists said reports this week may show.

A Dec. 23 report from the Commerce Department may show that bookings for machinery, electronic goods and other products made to last three years or more rose 0.6 percent in November, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The report may also show orders excluding transportation equipment gained 0.7 percent.

Retail sales unexpectedly rose for a third month in November, a report last week showed, easing concern consumers would falter under the strain of high fuel costs.

``The economy is gaining momentum,'' said Scott Anderson, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. ``High profits bode well for capital spending and consumers have shrugged off the jump in energy prices.''

A rise in durable goods orders would be the fourth in the past six months and follow a 1.1 percent decrease in October. The projected gain excluding transportation equipment would be the fourth in the last five months.

``Demand for our product is very good,'' John Brinzo, chief executive of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., the biggest U.S. maker of iron ore pellets for steel, said in an interview. Customers ``have been asking for all the iron ore we can produce.''

The Cleveland-based company is expanding capacity to 25 million tons from 23 million to keep up with orders, Brinzo said.

Fundamentals

In a survey of 131 business leaders by the Business Roundtable released Dec. 1, capital spending plans for the next six months were the strongest since the survey began in 2002's fourth quarter. Half of the respondents planned increases.

``Fundamentals for business spending are good,'' said Edward McKelvey, senior economist at Goldman Sachs & Co. in New York. ``Capacity is growing slowly and financing is readily available.''

Consumers are also buying more. Personal spending probably rose 0.3 percent last month after increasing 0.7 percent in October, a Dec. 23 report from the Commerce Department is expected to show. Incomes probably rose 0.2 percent.

Retail sales, which account for almost half of consumer spending, rose 0.1 percent in November and the October figures were revised higher, a Commerce Department report last week showed. Economists at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse First Boston were among those that raised their forecasts for consumer spending this quarter based on those results.

Leading Indicators

The index of leading economic indicators, due tomorrow, may have risen 0.1 percent in November, the first gain in six months, as fewer people sought unemployment benefits and stock prices rose, the survey showed.

The expected reading, together with the previous declines, is consistent with the economic growth slowing in the first half of 2005. The economy is projected to grow 3.6 percent next year after expanding 4.4 percent in 2004, according to a separate survey by Bloomberg News earlier this month. The economy grew 3.3 percent per year on average in the last two decades.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time probably rose to 335,000 last week from a five- month low of 317,000 a week earlier, according to the survey. Claims are particularly volatile this time of year because the government has difficulty adjusting the figures for holidays, economists said. The Labor Department report is due Dec. 23.

The world's largest economy probably expanded 3.9 percent in the third quarter, the same as estimated last month, the Commerce Department is expected to report Dec. 22. The report is the government's final reading on growth from July through September. Growth this quarter is projected at a 3.8 percent annual rate, the survey earlier this month showed.

Home Sales

The number of new homes sold last month probably slowed from October's pace, another Commerce Department report on Dec. 23 may show, according to economists surveyed. New homes in November likely sold at a 1.2 million annual rate after a 1.226 million sales pace the prior month. The pace of sales would still be high enough to ensure a record number of purchases this year, surpassing last year's 1.086 million total, which is the current high-water mark.

Home sales are holding up as mortgage interest rates remain close to the record low reached last year. Low rates and higher stock prices probably boosted consumer sentiment this month, a Dec. 23 report from the University of Michigan in expected to show. The university's final index for December is projected to rise to 95.7 from 92.8 last month, according to the survey. The figure would be the same as a preliminary reading this month.



Bloomberg Survey

Date Time Period Indicator BN Survey Prior
12/20 10:00 Nov. Leading Indicators 0.1% -0.3%
12/22 80 3Q P GDP Price Deflator 1.3% 1.3%
12/22 80 3Q P Gross Domestic Product 3.9% 3.9%
12/23 80 12/4 Continuing Claims 2746K 2737K
12/23 80 Nov. Durable Goods Orders 0.6% -0.4%
12/23 80 12/11 Initial Jobless Claims 335K 317K
12/23 80 Nov. Personal Income 0.2% 0.6%
12/23 80 Nov. Personal Spending 0.3% 0.7%
12/23 10:00 Dec. F Confidence- U. of MI 95.7 92.8
12/23 10:00 Nov. New Home Sales 1,200,000 1,226,000


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news...Rvs&refer=home