L'elefante nella stanza

[Florian]

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
A party both united and divided

Opposition to Obama is strong, but Republicans are split on GOP's direction and leaders


By Jon Cohen and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer

Monday, November 30, 2009


The Republican rank and file is largely in sync with GOP lawmakers in their staunch opposition to efforts by President Obama and Democrats to enact major health-care legislation, but a new Washington Post poll also reveals deep dissatisfaction among GOP voters with the party's leadership as well as ideological and generational differences that may prove big obstacles to the party's plans for reclaiming power.

Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are overwhelmingly negative about Obama and the Democratic Party more broadly, with nearly all dissatisfied with the administration's policies and almost half saying they are "angry" about them. About three-quarters have a more basic complaint, saying Obama does not stand for "traditional American values." More than eight in 10 say there is no chance they would support his reelection.

But for all the talk among Republican elected officials about a nascent comeback after gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey this month, there is also broad frustration among Republican voters about the party's direction, detachment from its congressional representatives and a schism over its priorities.

Fewer than half of the Republicans and Republican-leaners surveyed by The Washington Post see the party's leadership as taking the GOP in the "right direction," down sharply from this time four years ago. About four in 10 are dissatisfied with the policy proposals being offered by congressional Republicans, and similar numbers see the current crop of GOP legislators as out of touch with their problems and personal values. Nearly a third say the Republicans in Congress are not standing up for the party's core values

This portrait of how Republicans see their party is part of an ongoing series of stories examining the GOP at the midpoint between its disastrous losses in the 2006 and 2008 elections, and the midterm elections in 2010 and the 2012 presidential contest. The findings are based on a national survey of 1,306 adults, including additional interviews with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and a set of focus groups in Arapahoe County, Colo., a GOP-leaning county that Obama carried handily in 2008.


No clear leader

Asked who leads the Republican Party at this point, one group participant, Ryan Brown, a computer programmer, cited two men who are often at odds: Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the party's 2008 presidential nominee, and Rush Limbaugh, the conservative radio talk show host. But he was hesitant: "I'll bet you could go around here, and either people would not have an answer or they would have a different answer for that," he said. He was right, and the poll reveals similar threads of uncertainty.

Nearly three in 10 of those surveyed expressed no opinion about who in the GOP best reflects the party's principles or volunteered that no one does. Topping the list of named leaders was former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, the party's 2008 vice presidential nominee.

In the poll, taken amid the media whirlwind surrounding the release of her memoir "Going Rogue," more cite Palin than other Republicans as best reflecting the party's core values and as the top vote-getter in hypothetical presidential nomination contests. But on neither question did she exceed 20 percent backing among all Republicans.

Just 1 percent pick George W. Bush as the best reflection of the party's principles, and only a single person in the poll cites former vice president Richard B. Cheney. About seven in 10 say Bush bears at least "some" of the blame for the party's problems.

At the recent Republican Governors Association meetings in Austin, party officials discounted the absence of a single clear leader, arguing that what is most important is for Republicans to resist Obama's domestic agenda, reaffirm conservative principles and begin to articulate an alternative set of ideas. These officials expect to pick up seats in Congress and win more governorships in next year's elections, and think new, formidable leaders will emerge from those victories.

In the meantime, Republicans are faced with significant discord within their ranks. They are divided over how much to work with Obama on energy and climate-change legislation. There are generational differences on the role of religion in public life and how much emphasis the party should put on hot-button issues such as same-sex marriage. And the party's moderate and conservative wings have widely divergent views on a number of issues.

If there is one thing the party's strategists have in their favor at the outset of their push to regain majority status, it is broad public dissatisfaction with the way the country's political system is working -- the same force that helped propel Obama into office a year ago.

Overall, more than six in 10 Americans say they are unhappy with the way things are going politically, and half are discontent or downright angry about the policies of the Obama administration. On each of these fronts, dissatisfaction among Republicans is nearly universal.

In the Colorado focus groups, Republican voters expressed strong concerns about the first year of the Obama presidency. Pam Hyde, 53, who works at an elementary school, said new government spending worries her. "We'll never recover from that," she said. "I can't imaging recouping the money that he's proposing to spend. Unbelievable."

Health care was a particular concern in the groups, and a point of strong GOP unity in the poll. Talking about the legislative initiative, Karon Dawson, 59, a data processing manager, said that "there are no provisions in there to save any money or do anything to make a difference. . . . [It] is a waste right now unless they change it. It's like: 'Okay, we've got a bill out there but it's not going to be any good.' "


When to cooperate?

In the poll, nearly eight in 10 Republicans and GOP-leaners alike want party lawmakers to try to stop the health-care-reform proposals Obama and his Democratic allies in Congress are pitching; almost all these GOP voters feel "strongly" about their opposition to health-care reform.

More Republicans have compromise in mind when it comes to Democratic efforts to revamp the country's energy policy. On this front, as many of them want congressional Republicans to work with Democrats on these changes as those who want the process halted. When it comes to their general position, 56 percent want Republicans to engage Democrats in an effort to get GOP ideas into legislation; 41 percent would prefer simply to stop the Democratic agenda.

The debate over whether to seek compromises cuts to the heart of the question about the party's future. The party's "very conservative" bloc is strongly opposed to it; others are more open to the idea, even on health-care reform.

Overall, though, the GOP is a party that has become increasingly conservative, particularly on fiscal issues. Obama's stimulus package of nearly $800 billion, bailouts for banks and the auto industry, and a health-care bill with a price tag of nearly $900 billion over 10 years have aroused strong opposition on the right.

Almost three-quarters of Republicans and GOP-leaners identify themselves as "conservative" on most issues, up sharply from a couple of years ago. (In some part, the rise is attributable to fewer Americans calling themselves Republicans; with an average of just 22 percent in Post polls this year saying so, the lowest number in polls since 1981.)

On fiscal issues, the percentage calling themselves conservative has soared to more than eight in 10. More striking is that a majority considers themselves to be "very conservative" on fiscal issues, up about 20 points in two years. On social issues, two-thirds of Republicans say they are conservative, and about a third of Republicans say they are very conservative. Overall, about two in 10 are both fiscally conservative and moderate-to-liberal on social issues.

Republicans are now debating whether and how much candidates should be allowed to stray from party doctrine. That issue caused a split in the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich and others backed the Republican candidate and other leaders, including Palin, endorsed the Conservative Party candidate.

Last week, some Republican National Committee members began circulating a resolution, to be taken up early next year by the RNC, setting out a purity test for candidates.

In the new poll, 69 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaners say they think it is all right for the party's candidates to take moderate positions on some issues; 27 percent say they want candidates to hew exclusively to conservative positions.

Support for allowing some deviation from conservative views is particularly high among the two in 10 who describe themselves as conservative on fiscal issues but moderate to liberal on social ones. Among that group, more than eight in 10 say it is okay for Republican candidates to veer from conservative positions.

Among those who see themselves as very conservative in their views (about a third of the sample), however, 53 percent say candidates should embrace only conservative positions, highlighting the potential for continued divisions and GOP primary battles next year.


Splits on the issues

The GOP's internal fissures are also pointed up on the question of what issues voters think the party should focus on in its attempt at resurgence.

About a third of Republicans and GOP-leaners say the party is putting "too little" emphasis on same-sex marriage, but nearly as many say it is spending "too much" time on it. Here, there are big divisions by group, with younger people evenly divided between whether the party overemphasizes or underemphasizes the issue. More than four in 10 moderates say too much, with a similar proportion of the very conservative saying too little.

There is a similar split within the GOP on abortion. Moderates and non-religious Republicans are on one side, and staunchly conservative ones and white evangelical Christians are on the other.

Younger Republicans are also much more apt to advocate for increased emphasis on environmental concerns, with 44 percent saying the GOP focuses on environmental concerns too little and 14 percent too much.

Most Republicans, regardless of age, see the party as paying too little attention to federal spending. Most strongly oppose the government's use of hundreds of billions of dollars over the past two years to bolster the economy. Illegal immigration, which caused a major rift within the party during Bush's presidency, is another area in which most Republicans would like to see party leaders pay more attention.


Which way GOP?

Throughout the year, some "tea party" protesters and others at congressional town hall meetings have expressed grievances with the leaders of both parties. That disconnect between the party's congressional leadership and rank-and-file Republicans shows up in the Post poll when people were asked several questions about those leaders.

One year out from the 2006 midterm elections, 76 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaners said the leadership of the party was taking it in the right direction; now, 49 percent say so.

Barely more than a third of Republicans and GOP-leaners in the poll say the party shares their views on "most issues." Although most say congressional Republicans understand the concerns of people like themselves, share their personal values and are true to the party's core values, sizable numbers disagree.

Citing incidents in which Republican elected officials have confessed to extramarital affairs, Stephany Reed, 27, a student and stay-at-home mother, said: "Their moral character is totally not moral. . . . When your personal life is in shambles and your house is not in order . . . then it's going to affect how you lead us."

One rallying point for the GOP, though, is a broad perception among moderates, conservatives, and younger and older Republicans alike that television news is biased against the Republican Party and tilted highly in favor of Obama and Democrats. Nearly nine in 10 see the news media's treatment of Palin as unfair.

But that does not mean they are ready to get behind her, or any other potential candidate, to take on Obama. Perhaps no single indicator reveals the party's current fractures as do the poll's findings on the question of who Republicans are looking to in 2012: About four in 10 said they do not have an opinion or cited "nobody" as their preferred candidate.


Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.




Today's GOP is both united and divided - washingtonpost.com

[Florian]

Interessantissimo studio sulla situazione attuale del Republican Party.

Per chi volesse studiare da vicino il sondaggio del Washington Post con tanto di tabelle e grafici, segnalo il link:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...113000509.html

[Florian]

Repubblicani: divided they stand..


Lunga analisi del Washington Post sullo stato del Grand Old Party a partire da un sondaggio e in focus group condotto dal quotidiano della capitale federale. Gli elettori repubblicani non sono soddisfatti del lavoro in Congresso, non concordano sul leader e sono divisi sulle priorità. Una certezza è quella sullo scontento per l’amministrazione Obama. Il partito di McCain e Palin è diverso come lo era la coppia candidata presidenzale. C’è chi chiede più cooperazione almeno su alcuni grandi temi e chi sostiene che con i democratici non bisogna quasi parlare. C’è chi vuole fedeltà assoluta ai valori relativi all’etica e chi, più moderato, è scontento di Obama per l’economia ma ha una visione laica su aborto e unioni tra persone dello stesso sesso. I giovani, poi, ritengono che l’ambiente sia un tema troppo assente dall’agenda repubblicana. Il sondaggio merita di essere spulciato tabella per tabella.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...ll_113009.html

Per i pigri ecco le grafiche del Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...113000509.html

Qui Jonathan Alter di Newsweek sulla deriva populista del GOP incarnata da Palin, Limbaugh e Beck.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/224672

Qui un ritratto di un repubblicano moderato, il governatore dell’Indiana Mitch Daniels:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...121004109.html

piuttosto pronto a cooperare o rompere col l’idelologia conservatrice per ottenere risultati. Nell’articolo Daniels è paragonato all’altro Mitch, McConnel, il leader della minoranza in Senato. Due anime difficili da mettere assieme. Tanto quanto Blue dogs e liberals.


America2012 Repubblicani: divided they stand..



Ancora sulla deriva repubblicana


Il Washington Post continua il suo viaggio nel partito repubblicano. In questo post trovate il riferimento all’articolo più importante della loro inchiesta. Dan Balz distingue tra i reps del Congresso – tra i quali prevale la tendenza alla polarizzazione ideologica – e il gruppo dei governatori, che Balz crede essere l’avanguardia che sta già sperimentando l’innovazione (sia culturale che in termini di proposte di policy) che potrebbe generare la nuova leadership.

L’articolo è soprattutto un elenco di nomi, anche troppi. Il punto sembra essere questo: non è a Washington che bisogna guardare perché il Gop possa rinascere dalle ceneri come avvenne nel 1994 con Newt Gingrich, ma ai governatori. Per le elezioni del 2010, secondo Balz, alcuni governatori si stanno dimostrando i migliori fundraiser del partito repubblicano, i migliori nel mettere la faccia per il loro partito ecc. ecc.

Balz non ricorda che tranne due casi – Obama e Bush sr. – gli ultimi presidenti sono tutti ex-governatori (da Carter a Bush jr.), figure politiche che posseggono una piccola macchina presidenziale già rodata sul livello locale; inoltre l’ex goverantore dello Utah Jon Huntsman, uno dei più accreditati per un futuro da candidato presidenziale, ha mollato l’osso preferendo essere spedito da Obama in Cina a fare l’ambasciatore.

Che siano degli ex insider di Washington tornati a casa – Haley Barbour del Mississippi e Mitch Daniels dell’Indiana; i populisti alla Palin o alla Rick Perry (il govenatore del Texas); i nuovi come Jindal della Louisiana o gli atipici come Pawlenty del Minnesota, il Gop è ancora senz’anima, in ricostruzione. Se Balz suggerisce di guardare ai governatori è anche perché al Congresso l’opposizione repubblicana sembra ancora solo il disco rotto dell’epoca di Bush.


http://www.america2012.it/?p=2241

[Florian]

How governors could guide a Grand New Party

By Dan Balz

Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, December 13, 2009


The congressional wing of the Republican Party remains front and center as its members battle President Obama and the Democrats over health care, financial regulatory reform, climate change and just about every other domestic issue. But it is increasingly clear that the future of the GOP rests in the hands of the Republican governors.

The ranks of the Republican governors and former governors include savvy older pros, some celebrities, the biggest crop of prospective 2012 presidential candidates, bright young leaders on the rise and the possibility of enhancements to their ranks after the 2010 midterm elections that will draw even more attention to their work in the states.

The last time Republicans rose from the ashes, the public face of their restoration to power was Newt Gingrich, the flame-throwing speaker of the House who himself eventually flamed out. But the intellectual ballast came from the ranks of the governors, who already had proved to be the policy innovators.

The congressional ranks today include any number of politicians with talent and skills, but no one comparable to Gingrich. That makes it all the more likely that, if Republicans win a considerable number of seats in 2010, they will rely even more on governors to provide the policy and political leadership necessary to make the party competitive once again in a presidential election.

Haley Barbour is the one thread of continuity between the Republicans' restoration of 1994 and their comeback hopes in 2010. Then he was chairman of the Republican National Committee; today he is in his second term as governor of Mississippi and is chairman of the Republican Governors Association.

In 1993-94, he was a shrewd but mostly behind-the-scenes player to Gingrich's out-front leadership role in the midterm elections that drove Democrats from power. Today, he is front and center as a spokesman, strategist, fundraiser and counselor, looked to by congressional leaders and other governors for leadership in challenging the Democrats. They do not underestimate him as a formidable adversary.

The other older pro is Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels. He is the northern wing of the axis of experience the Republicans have within the gubernatorial ranks. Like Barbour, he is a former White House political director. Like Barbour, he is well-grounded in policy, having served as budget director in President George W. Bush's White House.

Daniels has been a highly successful governor who has kept focused on his state's economic problems. He is a plain-spoken conservative who has been outspoken about his party's problems. Republicans, he argues, must earn back the public's trust, and in Indiana he has provided a model for his party of how to go about doing that.

If Barbour and Daniels form the ranks of old pros, there are young pros rising within the ranks. The youngest is Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who has been on a fast track all his adult life. He had a terrible introduction to the nation this year when he was picked to give the GOP response to Obama's first speech as president to a joint session of Congress.

But appearances can be deceiving. Jindal has a considerable intellect and a command of many of the policy issues that will be front and center in the next few years, including health care and energy. Whether he can prove himself on a national stage still isn't known, but he could give Republicans fresh ideas and a platform from which to test them.

Farther north is Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who is finishing his second term as governor while still in his late 40s. He is a conservative from a blue-collar family and narrowly won two tough elections in a state partial to Democrats. He has his eyes on a run for president in 2012.

Former Republican governors retain national followings. One needs to look no further than the New York Times best-seller list to be reminded of that. Sarah Palin tops the list with her book, "Going Rogue," and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is on the list with his book, "A Simple Christmas." In March, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney will test his book-selling skills with "No Apology: The Case for American Greatness."

Palin, Huckabee and Romney are all prospective candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. All three carry baggage from their 2008 candidacies, and Huckabee has been badly damaged of late for granting clemency in 1990 to Maurice Clemmons, who shot and killed four police officers in Washington last month before being killed.

But one or more of them likely will become a serious contender for the 2012 nomination. Palin gives authentic voice to the anti-Washington grievances and resentments that threaten the Democrats. Romney, a successful businessman before turning to politics, could be well positioned to speak to the country's economic problems.

Republicans control governorships in the two most populous states. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, still the biggest celebrity in the GOP ranks, is on his way out of office next year after a tumultuous tenure in Sacramento. He embodies the vanishing model of fiscal conservative and social moderate that some Republicans think must be part of their future.

In Texas, Gov. Rick Perry is hoping to add another four years to the 10 he has already served by defeating Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in their nasty primary, then winning another term in November. Over the past year, he has emerged as another leader in the anti-Washington movement, with talk of secession that has made him the darling of many conservatives.

By this time next year, Republicans may have new governors in some of the nation's biggest states. GOP leaders are bullish about the prospects of state attorney general Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania, where Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell is term-limited. They see John Kasich, the former chairman of the House Budget Committee, as a threat to Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in Ohio. In California, Republicans have a three-way primary underway with the winner likely to face Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown, the former governor and current attorney general, in November. Former eBay chairman Meg Whitman is the best known among the GOP contenders and a potential national figure if she gets elected.

All of these are reasons Republicans will be looking to the states as they continue rebuilding.


As Republicans look to rebuild, governors could guide a Grand New Party - washingtonpost.com

[Bèrghem]

Reportage molto interessante e dettagliato, grazie per averlo postato.

Ma i 3d sugli Usa non dovevano essere messi in Right America (allora sottoforum di Conservatorismo)?

http://forum.politicainrete.net/cons...tml#post598906

Anche perchè lasciata là come sottoforum di Americanismo è una sezione che viene visitata da pochi, no?