Thread contenitore generico sugli USA

[Noumeno]

[paulhowe]

Notizione fasulla.

[occidentale]

[occidentale]

[alpha12000]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...umps-strength/

Former President Trump led President Biden in a recent national New York Times/Siena College poll by 5 percentage points, prompting a campaign spokesperson for the Democrat to argue polling “consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating Joe Biden.”

The remark is emblematic of a deeper skepticism of Trump’s strength in certain Democratic circles.

Biden allies point to primary results this cycle that show Trump underperforming his polling numbers and failing to capture moderate voters, as well as nonpresidential cycles under Biden where Democrats outperformed projections.

“We’ve got a long way to go. We’ve got a lot of work to do. But I think everyone in this town … is overestimating their strengths and underestimating ours,” said Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg.

Some Democrats were quick to dismiss The New York Times poll in particular.

Strategists were puzzled at the poll’s finding that women were equally split between Trump and Biden at 46 percent each, given exit polls in 2020 found Biden won women by 15 percentage points.

Democrats also questioned the poll’s findings that Trump was leading Biden by 6 points among Latino voters because Biden won that group by 33 percentage points in 2020, according to exit polls. Multiple Democratic strategists and pollsters noted 97 percent of interviews with Latinos surveyed for the poll were conducted in English.

Even Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who ended his long-shot primary bid against Biden on Wednesday, was skeptical of the poll’s findings.

“When the NYT/Sienna poll shows me at 12%, you better believe it is flawed,” he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. “Only 5% even know who I am.”

The Biden campaign’s belief that Trump is overestimated by polls is largely driven by the fact that voter behavior has not matched projections, including during this year’s primary elections.

Even as Trump has coasted toward the GOP nomination, winning all but two primary contests by huge margins, he has fallen short of what polls projected and has struggled with the voters who will likely play an outsized role in November.

Decision Desk HQ polling averages showed Trump projected to win the Michigan primary by 49 percentage points, and he ultimately defeated Nikki Haley by 42 percentage points. In South Carolina, he was projected to win by 29 points and ultimately carried the state by 20 points over Haley. In New Hampshire, Trump was projected to win by 14 points, according to Decision Desk, and won the primary by 11 points.

At the same time, Trump has hit his numbers in some races, including in Virginia — where polling averages showed him ahead by 25 percent, and he won by 27 percent.

Amy Walter of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report wrote Trump is entering the general election campaign “in strongest shape ever.”

Election Day is still roughly eight months away, but polling has shown Trump leading Biden in a likely rematch of the 2020 race.

The Decision Desk HQ average of national polls shows Trump ahead of Biden by roughly 2 percentage points, a potential warning sign for Democrats given Trump lost the popular vote even when he won the Electoral College vote in 2016.

The swing state data isn’t much better for Biden, according to Decision Desk HQ data.

Trump leads Biden in Georgia by an average of 7 percentage points, in Arizona by 5 percentage points, in Pennsylvania by an average of 4 percentage points and in Michigan and Wisconsin by an average of 3 percentage points.

Biden won each of those states in 2020, and with particularly narrow margins in Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia.

“No, President Biden, the polls are accurate. Americans just don’t like you for destroying our economy and our borders,” said Jason Miller, a senior Trump campaign adviser.

There are signs Biden may be underestimated, though. While thousands of Democratic primary voters cast ballots for “uncommitted” in protest of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, pollsters said many of those voters are likely to rally to the president’s side once the general election arrives.

“It is clear that there is some protest vote amongst regular Democratic voters in the primaries, and since polls are a snapshot in time this is what they are capturing,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science for Decision Desk HQ. “But historical vote patterns tell us staunch partisans usually come home, and as such I expect Biden to get back many of those voters.”

Rosenberg, the Democratic strategist, argued perhaps the strongest evidence that the polls are wrong about Trump is the reality that Democrats continue to win elections, particularly in the aftermath of the 2022 Supreme Court decision ending Roe v. Wade.

Without Trump on the ballot in 2022, Democrats defied expectations of a “red wave” sweeping Republicans into power in Congress. Democrats added a seat to their Senate majority, while Republicans captured a four-seat majority in the House, a smaller margin than expected.

Polls in Washington’s Senate race between Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and GOP candidate Tiffany Smiley showed a close race in the closing weeks, but Murray won by roughly 15 percentage points.

In 2023, Democrats retained control of the governor’s mansion in deep-red Kentucky and won a key Wisconsin Supreme Court race thanks in large part to abortion messaging.

Voters also voted to protect abortion rights in red states like Kansas and Ohio, and Democrats won special elections in the Pennsylvania state house and most recently in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, where Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), outperformed polls by roughly 4 percentage points.

“To me, the most significant electoral data out there is we keep winning elections,” Rosenberg said.

“It’s important to not rely on polls but to match it with what people are doing when they actually vote. When people go vote, Trump is underperforming public polling,” he added.

The flaw in that argument is Trump was not on the ballot in 2022.

And when Trump has been on the ballot, he’s tended to perform better than polls predict.

Polling in the 2016 presidential race missed significantly, leading to a surprise Trump victory even as he lost the popular vote.

A final RealClearPolitics average of polls in Michigan projected then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would carry the state by 3.6 percentage points. Trump won the state by 0.3 percent, or less than 11,000 votes.

The RealClearPolitics polling average had Clinton ahead of Trump by 6.5 percentage points in Wisconsin, where Trump won by 0.7 percent.

And in Pennsylvania, Clinton was projected to win by 2.1 percent, according to polling averages, and Trump carried the state by 0.7 percent.

Polling in the 2020 election was much closer to the final result, but even in some cases, Trump overperformed expectations on Election Day.

The final RealClearPolitics average in Georgia had Trump ahead in the state by 1 percentage point, but Biden won the state by 0.3 percent, or about 12,000 votes.

Elsewhere, though, Trump fared better than polling predicted, even in defeat.

The RealClearPolitics average had Trump down 6.7 percentage points in Wisconsin, a state he lost by 0.7 percent. In Michigan, polling averages showed Biden ahead by 4.2 percentage points before Election Day, and he won the state by 2.8 percent.

Trump, who has long quipped to supporters that he only likes polls if they show him ahead, is sure to tout surveys in the 2024 race as long as they are favorable to him. But both sides ultimately expect a close race in November, regardless of what polls show in March.

“National polling, eight months out, confirms what we know to be true: this will be a very close general election contest like all modern presidential elections are — but, we have a clear path to victory,” the Biden campaign wrote in Wednesday’s memo.

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[alpha12000]

https://www.theamericanconservative....ll-with-trump/

Non ho davvero nulla in comune con Donald Trump. Sono certo che lui e io non abbiamo sopportato le stesse lotte, né abbiamo gli stessi identici valori familiari, né condividiamo ogni convinzione civile. Ad essere onesti, trovo odiosi alcuni aspetti della sua personalità e, a volte, le sue frequenti divisioni senza tatto. Ho anche votato per lui due volte.
Ripensando al motivo per cui ho votato per lui, nessuno dei motivi ha molto a che fare con lui stesso. Trump ha rivolto lo sguardo del partito repubblicano verso la classe operaia, verso persone come me. Fare appello a questo settore della società americana è difficile. La maggior parte di noi è stanca della politica da anni; I repubblicani dell’establishment sono stati più ossessionati dalle agende globaliste e dal soddisfacimento delle grandi imprese, mentre i democratici hanno assecondato le persone altamente istruite e incitato alla discordia culturale. Trump, nonostante i suoi numerosi difetti, ha sollevato il tappeto per dimostrare al resto del suo partito che ci sono davvero milioni di noi che scorrazzano lì sotto: molti di noi politicamente senzatetto e alcuni di noi completamente disimpegnati dalla politica americana.
Ci sono state alcune cose che Trump ha fatto oltre a riconoscere la nostra esistenza che hanno guadagnato la nostra fiducia. Il suo status quasi comico di outsider, per prima cosa, ha giocato a suo favore. Lo vedevo quasi come una specie di candidato "Carnie", un'oscurità politica a cui dovevi vedere per credere. Nonostante ciò, ero anche convinto che fosse abbastanza testardo da riuscire a portare a termine almeno una parte di ciò che aveva promesso di fare.
Lavorando nel settore manifatturiero all’epoca, nel 2016, ero spesso preoccupato per la stabilità del mio futuro in questa industria americana quasi fossilizzata. Il discorso di Trump di diventare duro con la Cina mi ha attratto. Crescendo nel Midwest, in particolare nell'Ohio, posso guidare in diverse vecchie città manifatturiere nelle vicinanze che sono bucce sbilenche di quello che erano. Un duro promemoria della pelle che l’America ha perso quando i nostri politici e le nostre aziende hanno deciso che sacrificare la sicurezza socioeconomica di milioni di americani valeva i sottili profitti e il fiorente PIL come risultato dell’outsourcing della produzione americana.
Non sono del tutto contrario ai riflessi economici libertari dell’era Reagan che hanno guidato gran parte della politica fiscale del partito repubblicano per decenni. Penso che ci sia un potere reale nei mercati che queste politiche creano. Ma vedo anche come il ritiro della spina dorsale manifatturiera americana qui in patria solo per resuscitarla a costi più bassi all’estero abbia lasciato le mie comunità vicine. Ha lasciato la promessa del sogno americano nel caos per molti nell’America rurale e suburbana, e per cosa? Widget più interessanti ed economici? Trump ha promesso di recuperare parte del sogno della classe operaia rinegoziando gli accordi commerciali, imponendo tariffe e sostenendo la crescita manifatturiera nazionale.
Ha anche promesso di contribuire a raggiungere l'indipendenza energetica. Ciò non solo aiuterebbe i portafogli degli americani alla pompa, ma sarebbe anche un vantaggio per le capacità industriali dell’America. Lavorare per contrastare la nostra dipendenza dalla Cina, dando allo stesso tempo all’America l’accesso a un’energia interna più economica, è stato come aprire un tubo. Per molti di noi della classe operaia, vedevamo la realtà dell’uso dei combustibili fossili come inevitabile, almeno per ora. Che provenisse dall’estero o fosse prodotto in patria, non avremmo diminuito presto la nostra domanda di prodotti basati sui combustibili fossili.
Poi ci sono state le promesse di sicurezza nazionale di Trump. Tutto, dalla sicurezza del confine all’aumento delle spese militari. Fino al 2016, l’ISIS era dilagante e terrorizzava varie parti del Medio Oriente. Non molto tempo dopo l’insediamento di Trump, sono scomparsi. Non si sentono più storie di campagne dell’Isis in cui hanno conquistato vari territori. Invece, abbiamo sentito storie sulla nostra ricerca di questi lupi. Fino a quando non l'hai fatto. Gran parte di ciò è stato possibile grazie al fatto che i nostri leader e le nostre forze militari disponevano di risorse adeguate e di incarichi efficienti.
Anche se il caos al confine oggi è più folle che mai, almeno Trump era disposto a riconoscere che era folle. C’è una bugia a cui coloro che cercano una valuta morale si lasciano credere: che far rispettare le leggi sulla sicurezza delle frontiere è disumano e bigotto. Come cattolico e come americano, credo che abbiamo il mandato di essere una nazione che accoglie gli immigrati nel nostro gregge. Ma mi rifiuto di credere che l’esistenza di un perpetuo straniero illegale sia un’esistenza di sicurezza e protezione. Voglio che queste anime disperate abbiano le protezioni e le reti di sicurezza rese possibili dall’ingresso legale nel nostro Paese. Né posso permettermi di credere che sia saggio concedere in modo coerente un’amnistia di massa agli immigrati clandestini. Dobbiamo avere sicurezza alle frontiere. Dobbiamo avere un sistema di immigrazione ordinato. Il lavoro avviato da Trump a questo riguardo avrebbe potuto eventualmente portare a un processo di immigrazione più snello e sicuro. Invece è andato in pezzi.
Qual è il filo conduttore? Come ha fatto questo miliardario dell'élite costiera a farsi strada nei cuori di così tanti americani comuni della classe operaia?
Pragmatismo. Trump ha dato mandato al partito repubblicano di iniziare il lavoro per trasformarsi in un partito testardo, produttivo e impegnato nei confronti della gente comune.
Quindi, anche se forse non ho molto in comune con Donald Trump, o penso che sia un vero tesoro, penso che abbia consentito il cambiamento tanto necessario. Questo cambiamento ha stimolato nuovi leader come il senatore J.D. Vance, il governatore Ron DeSantis e il senatore Josh Hawley. Ma Trump è l’uomo giusto per ora. È lui che ha reso tutto possibile. Ha costretto i repubblicani a dare uno sguardo significativo a un’intera classe di persone che da decenni sono affaticate dal malessere politico e civile. E di fronte a una rivincita Biden-Trump, mi aspetto che gran parte della classe operaia americana continui a spostarsi verso il partito che ha tirato indietro il tappeto nel 2016, piuttosto che verso il partito che ci ha trascinato lì decenni fa.

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“Neither my uncle nor my father would recognize the version of America that we have today. We’ve become a nation of chronic illness, of violence, of loneliness, depression and division and poverty.” - @RobertKennedyJr

[occidentale]

11 year old BLIND GIRL GUNNED DOWN with her mother in a hail of bullets in Worcester, Massachusetts.

27 year old mother of two Chastity Nunez lost her life alongside her daughter Zella, who was blind, as they sat in their car outside their home.

Suspect Karel Mangual, 28 was arrested last night and will appear in court today and there is currently an ongoing manhunt in the state for his accomplice, Dejan Balnavis, 27.

The young mother who lost her life worked as a serving member of the National Guard in Connecticut, had two masters degrees and also worked at the prestigious MIT institute.

According to relatives, they had never heard of the suspect and don’t believe he was known to the victims.
Le vittime:


Il sospetto assassino:

[occidentale]

Department of Veteran Affairs attempts to BAN iconic 1945 image of a sailor kissing a woman in Times Square claiming it depicts a ‘non-consensual act.’

In a memo issued to staff the Department said “The photograph, which depicts a non-consensual act, is inconsistent with the VA's no-tolerance policy towards sexual harassment and assault.”

The memo added:

“To foster a more trauma-informed environment that promotes the psychological safety of our employees and the veterans we serve, photographs depicting the 'V-J Day in Times Square' should be removed from all Veterans Health Administration facilities.”

Despite the ban, the woman in the original photo previously said she was ‘proud’ of the image and ‘never felt violated.’

After the memo was leaked and sparked backlash, VA Secretary Denis McDonough issued a Twitter statement claiming the image is ‘not banned.’

“Let me be clear: This image is not banned from VA facilities - and we will keep it in VA facilities.”