Il futuro dell ' Artico

[Istévene]

China elbows its way into discussions over Arctic future

While it does not have an Arctic coastline, China is making sure it has connections with countries that do

By Jonathan Manthorpe, Vancouver Sun December 13, 2010


China is betting the continuing Arctic melt will open up shipping within the next few years and has been working hard to prepare for that event.
Photograph by: Ed Struzik, Postmedia News, Vancouver Sun



There was little fanfare at the end of last month when the China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) signed a long-term cooperation agreement with Russia's most experienced company on shipping oil and gas through the Arctic, Sovcomflot (SCF).

However, this deal is but the latest in accumulating indications of a Chinese strategy to elbow its way into the opportunities for both shipping and resource development afforded by expectations of the melting Arctic ice cap.

The agreement between CNPC and SCF is to increase use of the Northern Sea Route along Russia's Arctic coast to transport oil and gas to China. A new fleet of tankers designed to operate in ice as well as additional heavy-duty ice breakers will be built to that end.

The hydrocarbons for the Chinese market will come not only from Russia's offshore Arctic wells, but from new wells being developed at the Shtokman gas fields in the Barents Sea and from existing operations in the North Sea between Britain and Norway.

But this shipping, together with planned Chinese investment in Russian oil and gas development, is only one part of a broad strategy towards the Arctic that has been mapped out by China.

It is based on predictions by various scientific and oceanographic organizations that from 2013 onward the Arctic in summer will be free enough of ice to be used as a shipping route between Asia and Europe.

The attractions for China of the Arct ic route are compelling.

China remains dependent on foreign trade for its economic growth and about half of the country's annual gross domestic product comes from seaborne trade.

But the Arctic route would put China 4,000 nautical miles - 7,400 kilometres -closer to its markets in Europe and the east coast of North America.

There could be savings of half a million dollars or more on every voyage by ships laden with containers stuffed with Chinese manufactured goods.

China has been quietly interested in the poles since 1984 when it launched a series of expeditions and set up three research stations in Antarctica.

The first expedition to the Arctic came in 1995, but the first seaborne expedition came in 1999 with the benefit of the 21,000-ton former Ukrainian icebreaker now named Xue Long ( Snow Leopard).

This is the world's largest nonnuclear powered icebreaker and will soon be joined by a somewhat smaller new, $300-million Chinese-built icebreaker for what is planned to be a substantial Arctic fleet.

China's presence in the Arctic and its investment in both resource development and transportation in the region is also designed to give Beijing a voice and a seat at the tables where Arctic matters are discussed and negotiated.

China, after all, does not have an Arctic coastline, unlike Russia, Canada, the United States, Denmark and Norway.

These states control about 88 per cent of the Arctic seabed, thought by the U.S. Geological Survey to cover 30 per cent of the world's undiscovered gas and 13 per cent of the world's undiscovered oil deposits.

But China argues that the Arctic is too important a human resource to be left under the control of the littoral states alone. And Beijing points out that if the predictions of ice cap melting are correct, it will be possible to sail to and from Asia and the Atlantic without passing through the territorial waters or more extensive economic exclusion zones of Canada, Russia, Denmark and the U.S.

The way Guo Peiqing, professor of polar politics and law at the Ocean University of China, put it in a 2008 essay was: "Circumpolar nations have to understand that Arctic affairs are not only regional issues but also international ones."

Li Zhenfu of the Dalian Maritime University was even more blunt in describing China's interests. "Whoever has control over the Arctic route will control the new passage of world economics and international strategies," he wrote.

On the basis of these arguments China has been given ad hoc observer status at the Arctic Council, which was formed in 1991 and whose permanent members are the littoral states plus other northern nations Sweden, Finland and Iceland.

Even so, China's legal rights in the Arctic are limited, hence its interest in making financial deals with littoral states that give it a footprint in the region.

As always, Beijing is thinking well ahead.

The fact that China has by far the largest embassy in Reykjavik, the capital of Iceland, seems odd until one considers that with its North Atlantic position and gift of plenty of deep water ports, Iceland is the logical transhipment hub for the specialized vessels needed to ply the trans-Arctic sea route.

jmanthorpe@vancouversun.com

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

China elbows its way into discussions over Arctic future

[Istévene]

When it comes to Arctic oil drilling, all geopolitics are local

Posted By Steve LeVine Tuesday, October 4, 2011 - 8:20 AM



The great Arctic oil race is under way. In Russia, where one needs only Vladimir Putin's signature to drill in the most environmentally vulnerable region on the planet, ExxonMobil a month ago sealed a deal to explore underneath the Kara Sea. Now, the United States may allow Shell to explore the Chukchi Sea offshore from Alaska. At stake are the world's largest remaining untapped oil and gas reserves, and for Russia a chance to extend its economic and geopolitical power.

In the U.S., these big economics are interwoven with big local politics. A U.S. regulatory agency -- the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management -- yesterday sided with Shell and against environmental groups worried about whales, polar bears, walruses and fish in the proposed drilling area. A federal judge now can decide whether to allow the permitting process to advance. But significant judicial and regulatory hurdles remain before the company can drill exploratory wells as planned next year, not to mention the rigorously contested U.S. presidential election: President Barack Obama recently lifted a drilling moratorium in the Gulf of Mexico -- a key talking point of his Republican critics -- but he is also attempting to appeal to his own political base, and that could lead him to a different decision in the Arctic.

The Chukchi lies above a tremendous store of oil -- 15 billion barrels of recoverable reserves, according to the U.S. Minerals Management Service. A 1-billion-barrel field is regarded as a supergiant. All in all, there are some 134 billion barrels of recoverable oil and natural gas liquids within the whole of the Arctic Circle, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Given that no actual drilling has yet taken place anywhere, it's not surprising that the industry hasn't assembled a spill-action mechanism. But given the scale of U.S. environmental activism opposing Arctic drilling, this is a case in which companies wishing to drill on U.S. territory will have to demonstrate proactively that they are prepared for any eventuality, as they more or less have in the Gulf of Mexico.

When it comes to foreign companies, local politics are a feature of oil development in Russia too. Russia's geopolitical influence is based largely on the 10 million barrels of oil and 1.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas it produces every day, so Putin will want to proceed with development of the Arctic. But he also will force Exxon to take the same steps as Shell when drilling proceeds underneath the Kara.

When it comes to Arctic oil drilling, all geopolitics are local | The Oil and the Glory