Il suicidio del fracking

[Amati75]

Cosi tanto per capire cosa fanno i "big" che porca paletta no stanno a snetire i partecipanti di TP:

ConocoPhillips to spend 50% more on shale and oil sands in Canada, U.S.

ConocoPhillips is making a massive wager on the future of shale and oil sands drilling, pledging to spend 50 percent more over the next three years in the U.S. and Canada after crude prices fell by more than half.

The third-largest U.S. oil company plans expenditures of about $11.5 billion a year, according to a company presentation Wednesday. It will steer more funds to projects from Texas to North Dakota as spending winds down on major developments in locations such as Australia.

The Houston-based oil and gas producer, which spun off refining operations in 2012, also set a target of boosting production by 6.3 percent to 1.7 million barrels a day by 2017 amid the worst price crash in five years.
The spending plan amounts to a vote of confidence in the future of North American oil as some have questioned the viability of prospects in Texas and Canada with crude trading around $50 a barrel. The company’s operating costs are among the lowest in North America, Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones in St. Louis, said in a telephone interview ahead of the company’s analyst day presentation.
“ConocoPhillips has created a niche as a major independent producer with an attractive dividend and stable returns that trades more like” larger oil companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Youngberg said. Investors want to see the producer shore up its finances and spend in line with cash flow, he said.
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance became one of the first CEOs among major energy companies to announce spending cuts amid oil’s fall, pledging to reduce expenditures by more than $13 billion over three years or more than 30 percent.

ConocoPhillips to spend 50% more on shale and oil sands in Canada, U.S. - BNN News

[amaryllide]

Terremoti e trivelle: l’Oklahoma riconosce il legame

http://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2015/04/24/reiniezione-e-terremoti-loklahoma-riconosce-il-legame/1618996/

[Metabo]

Fracking: la bolla sta per scoppiare | Rinnovabili
I timori di un produttore svelati ad un incontro pubblico

Fracking: la bolla sta per scoppiare

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Il calo dei prezzi rende troppo costose le operazioni di estrazione. Metà delle compagnie di fracking rischia di vendere o fallire entro quest’anno.





(Rinnovabili.it) – Metà delle 41 aziende di fracking che operano negli Stati Uniti fallirà verrà o venduta entro la fine di quest’anno. Lo ha detto alla IHS CERAWeek Conference di Houston Rob Fulks, un dirigente della Weatherford International Plc, compagnia multinazionale impegnata nel business del petrolio e del gas. La causa di questo crollo verticale ipotizzato è il taglio di spesa cui sono costrette le imprese ora che diventa meno conveniente fratturare il terreno in cerca dello shale gas.La domanda di fracking, metodo di estrazione che con la perforazione orizzontale ha stimolato un boom della produzione di petrolio e gas naturale negli Stati Uniti, è calata. Lo dimostra il fatto che sempre più spesso i pozzi vengono abbandonati dalle aziende senza completare lo sfruttamento.


All’inizio dello scorso anno erano 61 i fornitori di servizi di fracking negli Stati Uniti (il più grande mercato del mondo). Alcuni pesci grossi hanno inglobato i più piccoli nel tentativo di consolidare una supremazia economica e vincere la guerra della competitività. La Halliburton Co. ha annunciato i piani per l’acquisto della Baker Hughes Inc. lo scorso mese di novembre. Un’operazione da 34,6 miliardi dollari. La Weatherford, che rappresenta la quinta potenza economica negli USA per quanto riguarda le operazioni di fracking, è stata costretta a tagliare drammaticamente i costi in risposta al un calo della domanda dei clienti. La società è riuscita a non fallire, per il momento, perché ha scaricato il calo dei prezzi sui fornitori di sabbia.
In tempi meno sospetti – era gennaio – gli analisti avevano predetto che la bolla del fracking sarebbe scoppiata in testa ai produttori di sabbia, materiale utilizzato per tenere aperte le crepe nelle rocce che permettono agli idrocarburi di fluire ed essere aspirati in superficie. Circa il 60% del loro giro d’affari, dopo il boom degli ultimi anni, si è legato al fracking, hanno spiegato gli analisti di PacWest Consulting Partners, che si occupano di fare previsioni sulla domanda in questo settore. All’inizio dell’autunno, le proiezioni degli delineavano uno scenario in cui la produzione di sabbia sarebbe cresciuta del 20% annuo nel 2015 e nel 2016. Niente di più sbagliato, perché le nuove previsioni indicano uno stallo della domanda.Il problema non è solo americano: le compagnie petrolifere stanno tagliando complessivamente più di 100 miliardi di dollari di spese a livello globale dopo il calo dei prezzi. Nel settore del fracking, si teme un calo del 35% nel 2015.

[Amati75]

Industries| Fri May 1, 2015 1:00am EDTRelated: ENERGY
U.S. shale firms revive hedging as oil rebounds, may vex OPEC

By Catherine Ngai
NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - U.S. oil producers are rushing to take advantage of the rebound in oil markets by locking in prices for next year and beyond, safeguarding future supplies and possibly paving the way for a rebound in production.
The flurry of hedging activity in the past month will help sustain producers' revenues even if oil markets tumble again, which is bad news for OPEC nations, such as Saudi Arabia, that are counting on low prices to stunt the rapid rise of U.S. shale and other competitors.
Oil drillers are racing to buy protection for 2016 and 2017 in the form of three-way collars and other options, according to four market sources familiar with the money flows. In some cases, that means guaranteeing a price of no less than $45 a barrel while capping potential revenues at $70.


U.S. crude futures traded just below $60 a barrel on Thursday.
Implied volatility - a gauge of options prices - tumbled nearly 30 percent this month to a four-month low reflecting increased options selling.
"A lot of producers that have hedges on for 2015 are under-hedged for 2016," said John Saucer, vice president of research and analytics at Mobius Risk Group. The crude's rally from six-year lows plumbed in January and easing option premiums have opened a "great opportunity" to buy extra insurance against a new slump, he said.

Analysts tracking hedging say that U.S. shale producers are protected as much as 50 percent less in 2015 compared with 2014. With new hedges now, producers have found an opportunity to maximize cash flow by selling calls and protecting the downside.

....


U.S. shale firms revive hedging as oil rebounds, may vex OPEC | Reuters

[Amati75]

Come ampiamente indicato mesi e mesi fa, i prezzi in ribasso spingeranno alla ricerca dell' efficenza, le aziende del settore che sapranno incrementare tale aspetto rafforzeranno tale posizione, esempio:

Lonestar Resources Demonstrates Eagle Ford Shale Profitability in Q1’15 Results

in 360 Articles / Analytics / E&P by — Oil & Gas 360 — May 1, 2015
Growing production and higher EBITDAX despite low commodity prices

Commodity prices have put tremendous strain on the entire oil and gas industries, with companies cutting capital expenditures by 35% on average, based on analysis done by EnerCom Inc. Despite the large capital reductions, some producers are still finding a way to grow business. Fort Worth-based Lonestar Resources (ticker: LNR) proved during its Q1’15 quarter call that its Eagle Ford assets continue to be profitable, and that the company can continue expanding its footprint, all while remaining economical.

[jack9]

Come ampiamente india mesi e mesi fa, i prezzi in ribasso spiegheranno alla ricerca dell' efficenza, le aziende del settore che sapranno incrementare tale aspetto rafforzeranno tale posizione, esempio:

Lonestar Resources Demonstrates Eagle Ford Shale Profitability in Q1’15 Results

in 360 Articles / Analytics / E&P by — Oil & Gas 360 — May 1, 2015
Growing production and higher EBITDAX despite low commodity prices

Commodity prices have put tremendous strain on the entire oil and gas industries, with companies cutting capital expenditures by 35% on average, based on analysis done by EnerCom Inc. Despite the large capital reductions, some producers are still finding a way to grow business. Fort Worth-based Lonestar Resources (ticker: LNR) proved during its Q1’15 quarter call that its Eagle Ford assets continue to be profitable, and that the company can continue expanding its footprint, all while remaining economical.

Io non me intendo, ma lo scisto secondo te si affermerà come energia alternativa?

[Amati75]

Io non me intendo, ma lo scisto secondo te si affermerà come energia alternativa?

Cosa vuol dire "energia alternativa"?

Lo shale per essere sfruttato econmicamente, necessita la presenza di alcuni fattori, come india molto bene un articolo i Forbes portato qui, mesi e mesi fa.

Se tali condizioni non sono presenti lo sfruttamento dello shale non e' economico.
La condizioni sono presenti in USA, ovviamente, e stanno cercando di farle presenti in Cina:

...

A report by energy giant British Petroleum (BP) predicted on Tuesday that China will become the world's second-largest shale gas producer by 2035, behind only North America.
From 2025 to 2035, China's shale gas output will grow by an average of 33 percent every year. By 2035, China and the United States will provide some 85 percent of global shale gas output, according to the report.

...

China renews subsidies for shale gas exploration | Shanghai Daily


Le fonti energetiche non rinnovabili, resteranno predominanti fino a quando quelle rinnovabili non assicureranno lo stesso ritorno per lo stesso stesso investimento.

[Amati75]

Per certo, pure una potenza mondiale del settore come l' Arabia Saudita.... :


Saudi Arabia will be the “second shale frontier”, says Saudi Aramco president

Saudi Aramco president and chief executive Khalid Al-Falih has predicted that Saudi Arabia will be the “second frontier” for shale gas after the US.Al-Falih revealed that the company is investing substantially in three key shale gas fields in the country.He suggested that with sufficient investment Saudi Arabia can become the world’s “second frontier” for shale gas with one of the key sites in the north of the country expected to come into production by either 2016 or 2017.“We’ve already drilled close to 100 wells. We know that it is feasible technologically, and we will make it commercial feasible by continuing to invest,” Al-Falih stated.

He said that in the long term shale gas and oil will support the global oil market; as countries develop and the demand for energy increases the unconventional industry “is a good source” to replace ageing traditional oil and gas fields.Al-Falih foresees development in China as well as Saudi Arabia to fulfil the increased global energy demand.He explained that Saudi Aramco has no problem with shale oil and gas existing but that its development was too rapid; “it came into production very quickly, faster than demand required it to come“.He added that although China is a potentially attractive market, Saudi Aramco intends to focus on “huge” domestic resources as the company “still has a lot to do in Saudi Arabia that is keeping us busy“.However, Al-Falih suggested that in the future, once the Saudi industry is developed, China may become an investment target.In terms of the global oil market, Al-Falih predicted that, barring major geopolitical upheaval, the oil market will recover in principle because of lower capital investment budgets particularly in the shale oil industry.
Saudi Arabia will be the ?second shale frontier?, says Saudi Aramco president | Shale Energy Insider

Tradotto sinteticamente... lo shale c'e', rimane e non sparisce... com'e' ovvio che sia.

[Amati75]

Shale Giants See Growth Again After 40% Price Climb


EOG Resources Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Co., two of the largest shale-oil producers, are preparing to boost drilling again after oil prices climbed 40 percent in the past seven weeks. (FRACKLOG>>>> in azione....) .

EOG Chairman and Chief Executive Officer William Thomas said Tuesday his company will increase drilling as soon as oil prices, which closed above $60 a barrel for the first time this year, stabilize at $65. Pioneer is planning to add drilling rigs starting in July, subject to oil price movements and the sale of other assets.


New drilling now means the companies can add to production in 2016. The statements come a month before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to meet to discuss supply quotas. The price of West Texas Intermediate, a U.S. benchmark, has gained on speculation the oil glut was easing. Drillers cut rigs to a five-year low after prices fell by more than half since June, spurring billions in spending cuts and more than 100,000 industry job losses.

EOG will be “heading into 2016 on a very strong note,” Thomas told investors on a call. EOG plans to boost output in the fourth quarter and double-digit growth could return by 2016.
Other major shale companies are weighing when the time will be right, said Ed Hirs, a lecturer on energy economics at the University of Houston.
“EOG is a tremendous technical company,” said Hirs, who runs his own small oil production firm. “EOG, Pioneer and others have plenty of opportunities. They are looking ahead to the inevitable and are deciding to get ready.”

....


Shale Giants See Growth Again After 40% Price Climb - Bloomberg Business


Quindi, come ampiamente previsto, non solo lo Shale e' "qui" e rimane, ma appunto essendo una produzione con concetto da "factory floor" e' ottimamente posizionata per rispondere piu' velocemente ai movimenti di mercato, al riprendersi i prezzi si riprende la produzione, il che implica anche un tetto alla rivalutazione stessa del petrolio.

Ovvero avremo davanti un periodo, direi consistente, di mercato ben forniuto a prezzi "popolari", o quasi, il barile a 100$ mi sa che , a meno di eventi geopolitici rilevanti, non lo si vedra' per un bel po'.

[Amati75]

Ed a dimostrazione di quanto vi si e' detto da mesi e mesi... del concetto del "factory floor" e della relativa velocita' di "stop" e di "reinizio' delle attivita'...:


America?s Oil Drilling Boom Is Sputtering Back to Life - Bloomberg Business