RACE 4 2012

[Florian]

David Petraeus

Born November 7, 1952 (age 56)

Allegiance United States of America
Service/branch United States Army
Years of service 1974–present
Rank General
Commands held U.S. Central Command;
Multi-National Force – Iraq; U.S. Army Combined Arms;
Center and Fort Leavenworth; Multi-National Security
Transition Command Iraq; 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault);
1st Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division; 3rd Battalion,
187th Infantry Regiment; A Company, 2nd Battalion,
19th Infantry Regiment (Mechanized)
Battles/wars Operation Joint Forge (Bosnia);
Operation Uphold Democracy (Haiti);
Operation Desert Spring (Kuwait); Operation Iraqi Freedom

Awards Defense Distinguished Service Medal (2);
Army Distinguished Service Medal (2);
Defense Superior Service Medal (2); Legion of Merit (4);
Bronze Star with Valor V; Defense Meritorious Service Medal

[Florian]

Tim Pawlenty

39th Governor of Minnesota
Incumbent, Assumed office January 6, 2003
Chairman of the National Governors Association
In office 2007 – 2008

Born November 27, 1960 (age 48),
St. Paul, Minnesota
Political party Republican
Spouse Mary Pawlenty
Children Anna Pawlenty, Mara Pawlenty
Residence Eagan, Minnesota
Alma mater University of Minnesota Law School;
University of Minnesota
Profession Lawyer
Religion Evangelical Christian

[Florian]

Mitt Romney

70th Governor of Massachusetts
In office January 2, 2003 – January 4, 2007

Born March 12, 1947 (age 62), Detroit, Michigan
Birth name Willard Mitt Romney
Nationality American
Political party Republican
Spouse Ann Romney
Children Five
Residence Belmont, Massachusetts
Alma mater Brigham Young University;
Harvard University
Profession Businessman, Politician
Religion
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormon)

[Florian]

Mark Sanford

115th Governor of South Carolina
Incumbent, Assumed office January 15, 2003
Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from
South Carolina's 1st district
In office January 3, 1995 – January 3, 2001

Born May 28, 1960 (age 48), Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Political party Republican
Spouse Jenny Sanford
Children Marshall Sanford, Landon Sanford,
Bolton Sanford, Blake Sanford
Residence Sullivan's Island, South Carolina
Alma mater Furman University; University of Virginia
Profession Real Estate Executive
Religion Episcopalian

[Florian]

John Tune

United States Senator from South Dakota
Incumbent, Assumed office January 3, 2005
Member of the U.S. House of Representatives
from South Dakota's At-Large district
In office January 7, 1997 – January 3, 2003

Born January 7, 1961 (age 48),
Murdo, South Dakota
Political party Republican
Spouse Kimberley Thune (née Weems)
Children Brittany and Larissa
Residence Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Alma mater Biola University;
University of South Dakota
Occupation political assistant,
association executive
Religion Evangelical Christian


Resources: Wikipedia

[Florian]

Nate Silver’s Starry-Eyed Look at the 2012 GOP Field

FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver has peered into his telescope and discovered a rather fascinating Republican galaxy just a few political light years away.


Silver splits the prospective Republican presidential candidates into four quadrants:

Conservative Insiders/Technocrats

This is a very crowded space, although it could become more or less so depending on the behavior of two individuals: Mitt Romney and Bobby Jindal.

I think Romney has wasted an awful lot of time over the past couple of years trying to run as a social conservative, chasing voters he’s unlikely to obtain because they don’t trust either (i) his faith or (ii) his track record (and subsequent reputation for flip-floppery) as governor of Massachusetts. To the extent there’s any early indication about Romney’s direction for 2012, he seems inclined to continue playing to the right, having recently used his PAC to donate to stimulus opponents. Then again, that strategy wouldn’t be mutually exclusive with a campaign based on fiscal conservativism and social moderation, which is what everyone but Mitt Romney seems to think they’re getting from Mitt Romney, no matter what Mitt Romney says or does.

Because of his fundraising prowess, Romney should have the first mover advantage in deciding how he wants to position himself; everyone else will have to follow. But there would seem to be more open space to his left than his right if he is bold enough to go there. The one wild card is Jeb Bush, who seems cut from the same sort of cloth as Romney, but even Jeb would probably have to defer to the Mittster.

The whole appeal of Bobby Jindal is that he can play the part of both the technocrat and the populist, a fact perhaps symbolized by his Cajun-fried heritage. The question is whether Jindal will at some point have to decide between the two. Going the populist route would lead to an eventual high-stakes confrontation with Sarah Palin, either early in the primary cycle or perhaps even sooner. Jindal’s alternative is becoming the choice of the conservative cognoscenti, which could cut off oxygen from alternatives like Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Eric Cantor and to a lesser extent Kay Bailey Hutchison. Gingrich is the only one of those alternatives who might exert enough gravity on his own to alter Jindal’s strategy, although it’s a unclear how Gingrich would position himself in the event of an actually running, rather than merely threatening, a campaign.

Conservative Outsiders/Populists

This is Palin Country, and the ‘Cuda would appear to have a free ticket to the semifinals unless she is challenged aggressively on her populist credentials by Jindal or perhaps by Mike Huckabee (although I think that Palin and Huckabee can co-exist until a fairly advanced stage of the process). The other potential candidates in this category, such as Fred Thompson, are mere nuisances to Palin, and are probably just hanging around hoping she goes supernova. Mark Sanford and Haley Barbour also seem inclined to move in this direction following their threatened rejection of stimulus monies, but they are poorly-defined candidates in a field with plenty of name recognition, the Doddering Richardsons of the GOP hopefuls.

Moderate Outsiders/Populists

This quadrant is generally sparely populated by the GOP, whose liberal wing owes its heritage to the highly wonkish traditions of the Rockefeller Republicans. Several candidates, however, brush up against its fringe, most notably Huckabee, whose Main Street economic populism creates differentiation with almost every other candidate in the Republican field.

Tim Pawlenty fits vaguely into this category (especially if one believes that having a mullet gives you populist cred). But I’ve also never particularly understood what Palwenty’s appeal is supposed to be: he got a fair amount of free airtime during the Republican veepstakes last year and didn’t leave much of an impression.

This is also probably where Ron Paul belongs, although really Paul is in a sort of libertarian hyperspace that few of us can hope to understand. Fellow traveler and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, who endorsed Paul in 2008, could provide for a more credible version of the libertarian message, but is probably too unorthodox a candidate for a party that lacks self-confidence and is groping to find a leader.

Moderate Insiders/Technocrats

This is supposed to be Charlie Crist’s space, but I just don’t get the sense that Crist is particularly serious about running, having cozied up to Barack Obama while teeing off the Republican establishment. If Crist does not run, or waits until 2016, that could vacate this space for Utah Governor John Hunstman, who perhaps sensing his opportunity is moving hard and to the left on issues like civil unions and the stimulus. A reform-minded candidate like Mitch Daniels could potentially fill this space, as could a recycled one like Rudy Giuliani; this is also where a wild card from the business or the military communities might wind up fitting in. But it will be filled by somebody, as it’s a valuable space to own in a year where the other party won’t be hosting competitive primaries, leaving independents and Democrats free to weigh in on the GOP contest. The Republicans could wind up with a moderate nominee on accident.

So, What Happens Next?

I don’t know. Ask me again in a year or so. But I think it’s not too early to be talking about this stuff, because the primary wars are also a proxy war for the future of the party.

by Aron Goldman @

race42008.com Haley Barbour

[Florian]

[Florian]

The 2012 Lowe-Down (July 2009 edition)

Whither the Republican Party in 2012? Who will be our nominee? Here are how the various candidates stack-up at the moment.

July 10, 2009


NOT RUNNING (no particular order):

Newt Gingrich. Here is a man who every four years threatens to run but never does. This not hard to understand. Anybody who wants to remain relevant on the national scene never says they are not running. The moment they do, the phones stop ringing, the invitations dry up, their opinions and insights are no longer of interest to anybody. They are officially has-beens.

Bobby Jindal. He has stated he’s not running. He is focusing on his job in LA at the moment, and is working towards his 2011 re-election run. That gives him precious little time to mount a Presidential Campaign for 2012.

Sarah Palin. This smart lady is not done with politics — not by a long shot. She is, however, done with political office. It takes too much time and effort, resources she wants to spend on causes she really believes in. (One of those causes happens to be a small boy named Trig who really needs his mother right now.) She has made a carefully thought-out decision to set her life upon a different course. She is one brave lady. I wish her well.

Mike Huckabee. I thought long and hard before putting Mike here. A few months ago I would have said, “Of course he is running”. I can’t say that anymore. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable with his TV show. It is certainly a popular one. More and more Fox affiliates pick it up. Now a successful media spot does not necessarily preclude a Presidential Run. Ronald Reagan had a long time radio show, too, but it always seemed a means to an end for him – a temporary post on his way up. Huckabee, on the other hand, seems to be really thriving there. It’s his baby. Will he give it up for the long hours, the hotels, the airports, the building up and running the campaign organization, the countless hands to shake of people you’ve never met and never will again, the constant scrutiny by unfriendly eyes waiting for the least little slip to use against you, the never-ending strategy meetings, and the endless rounds of banquet dinners that all taste the same? He has been there, done that. If he is smart, he won’t go back if he has something better; and he is, and he does.

Jeb Bush. It pains me to put him here. He is far more competent than either his father or his brother. Unfortunately, the cold, hard fact is that it is simply too early after his brother’s tenure for another Bush to top the ticket. Nobody ever said life was fair. The best he could hope for in 2012 is a tap for VP, and that is iffy at best. Instead, it looks like he is going to have to wait at least until 2016 to enter on the national scene.


MAY RUN (no particular order):

Haley Barbour. Obama is building up Washington as a pace not seen since WWII. Haley, the ultimate Washington insider, seems ill-equipped to offer a compelling alternative. He seems more of a behind-the-scenes sort of guy. But you never know.

Charlie Crist. He is favored to win the Florida Senate seat in 2010. If he loses, he won’t run. If he wins and wants to make a run for the Presidency, he would basically have to start running immediately. Obama got away with it in 2008. One, Crist is no Obama. And two, if the country is turning against Obama, they will be disinclined to make that mistake again. Being a successful Governor will help alleviate some of those fears, but will it be enough? It might be if he makes it to the General, but I suspect the Republicans will not be in a hurry to choose another maverick as their nominee.


WILL RUN:

Tim Pawlenty. He is making all the moves for a run, including a trial shot at RomneyCare this past week, and why not? Win or lose, a run in 2012 makes excellent sense for him. Even if he doesn’t get the nomination, a respectable 2012 run would lay a good foundation for a 2016 or 2020 run. He will be a relatively young 52 in 2012, after all.

On the plus side, he has good conservative credentials – not perfect, but close enough. They are certainly better than Crist’s. His recent maneuver where he out-foxed the Democrats into allowing him unilateral control over the budget will stand him in good stead with the base, and with a public tiring of Obama-nomics. What works the most against him, however, is the fact that Republicans are philosophically opposed to nominating a newbie. Their instincts are to go with the familiar, the tried and tested. And let’s face it, Pawlenty is not exactly a house-hold name with your average voter. The upside is that at the bare minimum, a good run in 2012 will allow him to check that box off for future Presidential cycles.

Mitt Romney. America, it is said, nearly always picks the opposite from their last selection. Obama was inexperienced at leading. Mitt has lead his whole life. Obama knew nothing about the economy. Mitt has been working with the America’s economic engine his entire career. Obama had never proved his competence at anything. Romney has proven his competence again and again. Obama is making a mess of things. Mitt has built a reputation as Mr. Fixit. If Obama continues to make a hash of the economy, foreign policy, and domestic affairs (ala Jimmy Carter), the situation will cry out for someone like Mitt Romney.
Couple that with the GOP tendency to nominate the next in line, and you have Mitt Romney as the 2012 frontrunner. The other two contenders for that honor from 2008 either have or will decide to pursue other options. Mitt’s ability to organize is legendary, and his fund raising talents surpass all others save Sarah Palin — and she’s not running. His squeaky clean image, which was derided in 2008, now looks quite appealing in light of recent scandals. Nobody, but nobody would ever tag Mitt Romney as likely to sneak off to Argentina to be with his mistress. Mitt now seems the “safe” choice. Republicans like that.

The Lowe-Down Bottom line: The 2012 nomination is Mitt’s to lose at the present time.

by Mark B. Lowe



race42008.com Haley Barbour

[Florian]

Poll Watch: Washington Post-ABC News Political Survey (GOP Race42012 Update)

Washington Post-ABC News Political Survey (GOP Race42012 Update)

July, 24, 2009


If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? *

•Mike Huckabee 26%
•Mitt Romney 21%
•Sarah Palin 19%
•Newt Gingrich 10%
•Tim Pawlenty 4%
•Jeb Bush 3%
•Bobby Jindal 2%
•Haley Barbour 1%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Sarah Palin?

•Strongly favorable 20%
•Somewhat favorable 20%
•Somewhat unfavorable 19%
•Strongly unfavorable 34%
Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Sarah Palin, or not?

She understands the problems of people like you.

•Yes 47%
•No 47%
She is a strong leader.

•Yes 40%
•No 54%
She is honest and trustworthy.

•Yes 52%
•No 40%
She shares your values.

•Yes 48%
•No 47%
She understands complex issues.

•Yes 37%
•No 57%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

•Strongly Approve 38% (36%)
•Somewhat Approve 22% (29%)
•Somewhat Disapprove 9% (10%)
•Strongly Disapprove 28% (22%)
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy?

•Strongly Approve 29% (28%)
•Somewhat Approve 23% (28%)
•Somewhat Disapprove 10% (13%)
•Strongly Disapprove 35% (27%)
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling health care?

•Strongly Approve 25% (27%)
•Somewhat Approve 24% (26%)
•Somewhat Disapprove 11% (10%)
•Strongly Disapprove 33% (29%)
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling the federal budget deficit?

•Strongly Approve 19% (22%)
•Somewhat Approve 24% (26%)
•Somewhat Disapprove 11% (13%)
•Strongly Disapprove 38% (35%)
(more…)

by Aron Goldman



race42008.com Haley Barbour

[Florian]

Poll: Mitt Romney Favored for Republican 2012 Presidential Nomination

Posted July 20, 2009


A new poll names the top five Republican presidential candidates for 2012

1.Mitt Romney favored by 26 percent of Republicans
2.Sarah Palin favored by 21 percent of Republicans
3.Mike Huckabee favored by 19 percent
4.Newt Gingrich favored by 14 percent
5.Tim Pawlenty favored by 3 percent

Source: Gallup


Poll: Mitt Romney Favored for Republican 2012 Presidential Nomination - US News and World Report