RACE 4 2012

[Florian]

Likelihood Rankings for 2012 Presidential Race


October 5, 2009


As always, when I make these rankings, I’m not concerned about whose leading for 2012, but rather who is most likely run based on what happened last quarter:

Likely Candidates

1) Tim Pawlenty-73% (+15)

Pawlenty removed a lot of ambiguity from his 2012 plans by delivering a well-received speech at the Values Voter summit, starting a PAC and hiring top drawer talent to run it. There are many questions about the viability of Pawlenty’s campaign, but whatever those questions, it looks like a go.

2) Mike Huckabee-70% (+10)

Huckabee had a few things go right this quarter. His win at the Values Voter Strawpoll and his trip to Israel. In addition, I think the chance of Huckabee running increase at half the rate that Palin’s chances of running decline. Huckabee has hedged his bets. He’s made it clear that he’s not running if there’s not a chance of victory. Whether we see a Huck-repeat will probably have a lot to do with how the Obama Administration fares, and potentially the success or failure of Bob Vander Plaats in Iowa.

3) Mitt Romney-68% (+8)

Nothing appears to indicate that Romney’s not running for President again and the word came out this quarter that Romney’s expected to write a 2012 book.

Unlikely Candidates

4) Haley Barbour (-2)-40%
4) John Thune (-3)-40%

Both of these men have been out of the spotlight and nothing indicates that they are running, other than speculation about it. I downgraded Thune more because he’s had more opportunity to get national press in DC hasn’t availed himself of it.

6) Sarah Palin-39% (-10)

There are two sides to this equation. On one hand, Sarah Palin hasn’t done anything that would show interest in 2012. She skipped the Values Voter summit, and hasn’t at any events that woul indicate interest in the election. On the other hand, she could be planning an unconventional campaign that will go away from the endless and ultimately useless nine digit campaigns to instead go back to a Front Porch style of campaign where the candidates doesn’t throw herself out there every night and spend her time constantly fundraising. My bet at this point is that Palin lacks interest in a campaign, however, Palin is the one unlikely candidate who changes everything if she gets in.

7) Gary Johnson-38% (+2)

This bump is based solely on Kristopher’s rumor report.

Newt Gingrich-32% (+2%)

9) Rick Santorum-30% (not ranked)

The Santorum possibility is interesting, but I wouldn’t bet him on pulling the trigger. He was far more popular inside the beltway than outside of it and he’s going to need a lot of money to get this done. My bet is that Santorum is trying to raise issues and draw attention but won’t pull the trigger.

10) John Huntsman-29% (NC)

11) Mike Pence-20% (Not Ranked)

Pence says he has no plans to run for President. I tend to believe him, but that leaves some wiggle room.

12) Mitch Daniels-17% (-2)

13) Bobby Jindal-16% (-3)

His Star has come back to Earth a bit in Louisiana. I still think on balance, he’d make a good VP and if Republicans still don’t hold the White House come in 2016, Jindal could look very good.

14) John Cornyn-14% (-5)

Who needs the Presidency when you feel that you can dictate to every state GOP in the nation who their senate candidates will be.

15) Charlie Crist-12% (+3)

Crist’s talk of a Carteresque defeat for Obama could indicate that Crist is interested in doing the deed. Too bad for him, he committed himself to this race with Marco Rubio that lessens his national stature and ensures whether he wins or loses in Florida, the party base will have a bad taste in their mouth when it comes to him.

16) Jim DeMint-11% (-2)

17) Rudy Giuliani-9% (NC)

18) Jeb Bush-8% (+3)

Do polling companies know something we don’t know when Jeb Bush starts getting included in trial heats? Probably not, but perhaps Jeb is way too low.

Chances are greater of me getting a tongue ring and the Cubs winning the World Series on the same day candidates…

19) Ron Paul-5% (+4)

Okay I concede that despite the fact I don’t see Paul running for President, there’s a greater than 1% chance of him running. Happy?

20) Tom Ridge 4% (-11)

Memo to Ridge: If you thought the book was going to improve your chances of being seen as a Presidential candidate, think again.

21) David Petraeus: 3% (-)

22) Mark Sanford-1% (-1)

Yeah, it’s unlikely, but who knows if running for President could become part of Mark Sanford’s “secret agent mission?”

by Adam Graham


race42008.com Haley Barbour

[Florian]

Toplines - 2012 GOP Primary - October 15. 2009


National Survey of 750 Likely 2012 GOP Voters
Conducted October 15, 2009

By Rasmussen Reports


1* I know it’s a long way off, but suppose the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary were held in your state today. If you had a choice between Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and Tim Pawlenty, for whom would you vote?

24% Romney
18% Palin
29% Huckabee
14% Gingrich
4% Pawlenty
6% Some other candidate
7% Not sure

2* Regardless of who you would vote for, which candidate would you least like to see win the Republican nomination in 2012….Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich or Tim Pawlenty?

9% Romney
21% Palin
8% Huckabee
20% Gingrich
28% Pawlenty
5% Some other candidate
9% Not sure

3* In the 2012 election, how likely is it that a Republican candidate will defeat Barack Obama?

50% Very likely
31% Somewhat likely
8% Not very likely
4% Not at all likely
7% Not sure



NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence



Toplines - 2012 GOP Primary - October 15. 2009 - Rasmussen Reports

[Florian]

Poll Watch: USA Today/Gallup 2012 Presidential Survey


USA Today/Gallup 2012 Presidential Survey

November 5, 2009


I’m going to read you a list of possible Republican candidates in the 2012 presidential election. Please tell me whether you would, or would not, seriously consider supporting each for president.

Mike Huckabee

•Yes, would 40%
•No, would not 51%

Mitt Romney

•Yes, would 39%
•No, would not 51%

Sarah Palin

•Yes, would 33%
•No, would not 63%
Newt Gingrich

•Yes, would 29%
•No, would not 63%
Tim Pawlenty

•Yes, would 18%
•No, would not 60%

Haley Barbour

•Yes, would 15%
•No, would not 65%


Among Republicans


Mike Huckabee

•Yes, would 71%
•No, would not 25%

Mitt Romney

•Yes, would 65%
•No, would not 31%

Sarah Palin

•Yes, would 65%
•No, would not 33%

Newt Gingrich

•Yes, would 60%
•No, would not 35%

Tim Pawlenty

•Yes, would 32%
•No, would not 48%

Haley Barbour

•Yes, would 26%
•No, would not 52%


Please tell me whether you think each of the following people is or is not qualified to be president.

Mike Huckabee

•Yes, qualified 50%
•No, not qualified 36%

Mitt Romney

•Yes, qualified 49%
•No, not qualified 39%

Newt Gingrich

•Yes, qualified 44%
•No, not qualified 46%

Sarah Palin

•Yes, qualified 31%
•No, not qualified 62%

Tim Pawlenty

•Yes, qualified 25%
•No, not qualified 51%

Haley Barbour

•Yes, qualified 18%
•No, not qualified 57%





Survey of 1,021 adults, including 301 Republicans was conducted October 31 – November 1. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points overall; +/ 7 points among Republicans.

Inside the numbers:

The overall numbers are depressed in part because no more than 20% of Democrats say they would consider voting for any of the candidates (Romney 20%, Huckabee 18%, Pawlenty 11%, and Palin 10%). Those low figures are understandable given that typically about 10% of party identifiers wind up voting for the opposition’s candidate in presidential elections.

Additionally, no more than 40% of independents support any of the Republicans. Huckabee (40%) and Romney (40%) tie for the lead in potential support among independents, followed by Palin (32%) and Gingrich (28%).

In poll responses on whether the prospects are “qualified to be president,” only Huckabee reaches the 50% watermark; Romney is just behind, at 49%. Palin is seen as unqualified by a 2-1 ratio, 62%-31% — including a negative rating by a third of Republicans, two-thirds of independents and eight in 10 Democrats. In fact, Republicans are more likely to say they would seriously consider voting for Palin for president (65%) than to say she is qualified for the job (58%).


race42008.com Haley Barbour