Syria: will Assad lose a war of attrition?
However, in the longer-term, a military can only ‘win’ if it has enough reliable soldiers and local support. The Assad regime struggled to take control of all of Homs, let alone prevail in the divided Aleppo. It could not pacify important Damascus suburbs where leading rebel factions were based. It made little headway in the countryside, even near cities that it ruled. Once rebels were able to overcome problems of co-ordination, to check the threat of the Islamic State, and – perhaps most importantly – obtain decent weapons, they could turn the tide. That is what has happened since January. Finally giving up on US support, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have led an effort to supply the rebels. Factions – from the Free Syrian Army to the Islamic Front bloc to the Islamist group Jabhat al-Nusra – have overcome long-running disputes to establish effective commands and operations rooms. Tens of thousands of fighters have been mobilised for offensives.
The Syrian air force can retaliate for losses of territory, doing so near Idlib and Jisr al-Shughour recently with barrel bombs and even the chemical weapons of chlorine canisters. However, the bombing alone cannot reclaim that territory. The Syrian military is having problems putting enough men on the battlefield – reports of forced conscription are mounting – and some of its best units are trapped south of Idlib. Hezbollah, after suffering losses, is refusing to provide fighters for the north, and Iran also appears to be withdrawing from that front.
It's the numbers, stupid!




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