Il suicidio del fracking

[Amati75]

wow cosa ho trovato.
Non sembrerebbe male anche se onestamente non l'ho letto, neppure le conclusioni, troppo lunghe per essere per l'appunto conclusioni.
Soffermandomi sugli economics a pag 28 e 29 invece ci sono dei bei numeri.
Tra questi si evidenziano il costo della liquefazione shipping e rigasificazione in circa 5$/mmBTU.
Se a questi si aggiunge il costo del gas in Usa di 2,5$ ( ma quello di scisto a mio parere deve costare di piu'), si arriva ad una forbice di prezzi attorno agli 8 dollari /mmBTU, abbastanza in linea con i prezzi russi ed europei.
Ma basterebbe che la Russia calesse di poco i suoi prezzi e tutto salterebbe per aria.
Insomma come per il scisto anche l'export LNG americano viaggia sull'orlo del baratro , a cavallo di una mid line che non da molti margini di manovra!

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/res..._ebinger_2.pdf

Il Gas Shale al MMBTU ha lo stesso prezzo degli altri... il rapporto e' del 2012, dal 2012 al presente sono calati sia costi per le compagnie Sahle, sia i costi per "farlo" LNG, basti pensare ai noli delle navi per il trasporto del LNG, calati dei 2/3:

Rates to transport liquefied natural gas have declined to about $50,000 per day and will probably go lower before recovering, according to Andrew Buckland, a London-based analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. That compares with more than $140,000 a day in 2012

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-20/lng-shipping-rates-fall-to-lowest-since-2010-in-boon-for-traders

Ovvero nel 2012, stessa data dello studi, il costo del molleggio di una nave era di 140 mila al giorno, a Febbraio del 2015, data articolo, 50 mila.

Come indica lo stesso articolo per il prevedibile futuro tali costi continueranno a scendere, anche perche' ancora quest'anno entrano in funzione navi aggiuntive.

Come gia' s fece notare qui:

3D unificato - FOCUS UCRAINA


Stesso ragionamento di riduzione costi (cambiera' la %) si applica in pratica in tutta la supply chain dalla produzione alla logistica.

Ho letto, ed ho riportato, ma non rammento in che discussione, che al presente, il gas Usa può' essere offerto vero i 6/6.5$ dollari, ovvero in linea con le quotazioni attuali che paga l' Europa.

Sono "solo" 2 anni che voi si fa notare che i prezzi landed sarebbero concorrenziali con quelli che si pagano.

Anche un abbassamento di prezzo Russo, non altererà tali dinamiche, dato che:

1-La diversificazione implica una pressione su altri fornitori per Mantenere ed offrire prezzi bassi
2-La diversificazone e' un obbiettivo politico (e del tutto logico e sensato) sia a livello Europeo che dei singoli paesi
3-Il mercato USA e' saturo, ergo tali volumi e' meglio esportarli.
4-Che arrivi in europa o vada altrove e' dopo tutto secondario, aumenterà in ogni caso la pressione a livello di mercato globale, il che forzerà' al ribasso i prezzi.

[Amati75]

Come indicatovi da mesi e mesi e mesi... questo periodo di prezzi bassi vedrà' un consolidamento del settore, le aziende piu' sfide ed efficienti avranno quindi un vantaggio competitivo, esempio:

"Pioneer priced the shares at $117, a 6.5 percent discount to Tuesday’s close, it said in a statement after the close of trading. The issuance will help fund a 2016 drilling budget that is scheduled to range from $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, up from about $2.2 billion in 2015, Pioneer said in a separate statement Tuesday.
The company is boosting spending while many rivals retrench because oil wells in the Permian Basin in West Texas have outperformed expectations, Pioneer said. The biggest gushers are generating 30 percent returns, despite the 18-month rout that slashed crude prices by two-thirds, according to the driller.


..

More Drilling

Pioneer isn’t shutting down any drilling in its Permian fields this year and will keep operating all 18 of the rigs currently exploring shale layers known as the Spraberry and Wolfberry, according to the statement. “Well returns in this area continue to be good in the current commodity price environment,” the company said.
The company brought 44 new horizontal wells into production in the Spraberry and Wolfcamp layers of the Permian during the final three months of last year, including nine that are part of a joint venture.
For 2015, full-year output rose 12 percent, exceeding an earlier target of 11 percent, the company said. This year, production is expected to rise another 10 percent to 15 percent, extending a streak of gains that began in 2011.



Hungry for More Shale Oil Stock? Pioneer Natural Bets Yes - Bloomberg Business

[animal]

Come indicatovi da mesi e mesi e mesi... questo periodo di prezzi bassi vedrà' un consolidamento del settore, le aziende piu' sfide ed efficienti avranno quindi un vantaggio competitivo, esempio:

"Pioneer priced the shares at $117, a 6.5 percent discount to Tuesday’s close, it said in a statement after the close of trading. The issuance will help fund a 2016 drilling budget that is scheduled to range from $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, up from about $2.2 billion in 2015, Pioneer said in a separate statement Tuesday.
The company is boosting spending while many rivals retrench because oil wells in the Permian Basin in West Texas have outperformed expectations, Pioneer said. The biggest gushers are generating 30 percent returns, despite the 18-month rout that slashed crude prices by two-thirds, according to the driller.


..

More Drilling

Pioneer isn’t shutting down any drilling in its Permian fields this year and will keep operating all 18 of the rigs currently exploring shale layers known as the Spraberry and Wolfberry, according to the statement. “Well returns in this area continue to be good in the current commodity price environment,” the company said.
The company brought 44 new horizontal wells into production in the Spraberry and Wolfcamp layers of the Permian during the final three months of last year, including nine that are part of a joint venture.
For 2015, full-year output rose 12 percent, exceeding an earlier target of 11 percent, the company said. This year, production is expected to rise another 10 percent to 15 percent, extending a streak of gains that began in 2011.

Hungry for More Shale Oil Stock? Pioneer Natural Bets Yes - Bloomberg Business

Pioneer Natural Resources - Permian Basin

Hei andiamoci piano! Mica tutto il permiano e' fracking.
Sono giacimenti convenzionali e taluni anche con pozzi orizzontali che non vuol dire che siano tutti soggetti al fracking INVASIVO

[animal]

Andando un po' sul tecnico e senza strafare vorrei fare presente che i pozzi chiamati orizzontali come il Dorothy con tema la formazione Wolfcamp A, interessa sabbie porose ( vedere fotografia dei campioni porosi a destra nella seconda figura).
Non e' certamente il caso tipico di fracking da scisto!

[Amati75]

Pioneer Natural Resources - Permian Basin

Hei andiamoci piano! Mica tutto il permiano e' fracking.
Sono giacimenti convenzionali e taluni anche con pozzi orizzontali che non vuol dire che siano tutti soggetti al fracking INVASIVO

L'articolo e l'a zienda in specifico, e' del settore SHALE, specificato sia nel titolo che nel testo:

".. will keep operating all 18 of the rigs currently exploring shale layers known as the Spraberry and Wolfberry,"

"..The company brought 44 new horizontal wellsinto production in the Spraberry and Wolfcamp layers.."

[Amati75]

Andando un po' sul tecnico e senza strafare vorrei fare presente che i pozzi chiamati orizzontali come il Dorothy con tema la formazione Wolfcamp A, interessa sabbie porose ( vedere fotografia dei campioni porosi a destra nella seconda figura).
Non e' certamente il caso tipico di fracking da scisto!

Sono considerati Shale Fields:

Pioneer Natural Resources - Permian Basin

[paulhowe]

Gli effetti dell'abbassamento del prezzo del petrolio gia si vedono sulle vendite record di auto negli USA.

U.S. auto sales in 2015 set record after strong December | Reuters

For full year 2015, U.S. sales hit a record of 17.47 million vehicles, breaking the mark of 17.41 million vehicles in 2000, according to Autodata Corp. Low gasoline prices, easy credit and moderate economic growth boosted the industry.

Metabo quante auto hanno venduto in Russia?????

[animal]

Sono considerati Shale Fields:

Pioneer Natural Resources - Permian Basin

Sono chiamati Shale fields, ma nella realta' sono torbiditi caratterizzate da sedimenti a bassa permeabilita' ( arenarie, silt , argille).(1)

Dall'altro lato si cita che la produzione di olio precedentemente provveniva dalle formazioni permeabile ( con pozzi verticali quindi e senza fratturazione aggiungo)(2).

Il problema sta nel capire cosa si intenda nel capoverso (3) quando si parla di pozzi orizzontali e fratturazione che , ripeto, non implica necessariamente che siano i classici shale fracking che implicano 1)volumi di acqua e sabbia elevati 2) elementi chimici 3) scarsa produzione a regime

Six formations are responsible for surge in Permian Basin crude oil production

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration calculations, based on data from Drillinginfo
Note: Production through December 2013 is reported. Production from January 2014 through May 2014 is estimated. Glorieta and Yeso are separate formations combined for this article. Additional amounts of Permian production come from other formations not included in this graph.

---

The Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico is the nation's most prolific oil producing area. Six formations within the basin have provided the bulk of Permian's 60% increase in oil output since 2007. Crude oil production in the Permian Basin has increased from a low point of 850,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2007 to 1,350,000 bbl/d in 2013.
Largely as a result of this growth, crude oil production from Permian Basin counties has exceeded production from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico region since March 2013, making the Permian the largest crude oil producing region in the United States. In 2013, the Permian Basin accounted for 18% of total U.S. crude oil production. The recent increase in Permian crude oil production is largely concentrated in six low-permeability formations that include the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Bone Spring, Glorieta, Yeso, and Delaware formations. Production from these formations has helped drive the increase in Permian oil production—particularly since 2009—despite declining production from legacy wells.
Almost three-quarters of the increase in Permian crude oil production came from the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, and Bone Spring formations. Counties in these three formations have driven the increase in the Permian Basin's horizontal, oil-directed rig activity in recent months. Production from these three formations collectively increased from about 140,000 bbl/d in 2007 to an estimated 600,000 bbl/d in 2013, increasing their share of total Permian oil production from 16% to 44%. Three other formations—the Delaware formation and the adjacent Glorieta and Yeso formations—also increased production from 2007 to 2013, but to a lesser extent. Production from these three formations rose from 61,000 bbl/d in 2007 to an estimated 112,000 bbl/d in 2013.
The Permian Basin region encompasses an area approximately 250 miles wide and 300 miles long, and it contains many potentially productive low-permeability oil formations.(1)
Although oil production has previously come from the more permeable portions of the Permian formations(2), the application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has opened up large and less-permeable portions of these formations to commercial production (3).

This is especially true for the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, and Bone Spring formations, which have initial well production rates comparable to those found in the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale formations.

[animal]

Il fatto che ci sia una certa incertezza nel definire il "play" Wolfcamp e' questo articolo dove si chiedono cosa sia in effetti!

Big Lake Oil Industry :: Big Lake Texas Chamber of Commerce and Economic Development - Big Lake, TX

[Amati75]

Sono chiamati Shale fields, ma nella realta' sono torbiditi caratterizzate da sedimenti a bassa permeabilita' ( arenarie, silt , argille).(1)

Dall'altro lato si cita che la produzione di olio precedentemente provveniva dalle formazioni permeabile ( con pozzi verticali quindi e senza fratturazione aggiungo)(2).

Il problema sta nel capire cosa si intenda nel capoverso (3) quando si parla di pozzi orizzontali e fratturazione che , ripeto, non implica necessariamente che siano i classici shale fracking che implicano 1)volumi di acqua e sabbia elevati 2) elementi chimici 3) scarsa produzione a regime

Six formations are responsible for surge in Permian Basin crude oil production

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration calculations, based on data from Drillinginfo
Note: Production through December 2013 is reported. Production from January 2014 through May 2014 is estimated. Glorieta and Yeso are separate formations combined for this article. Additional amounts of Permian production come from other formations not included in this graph.

---

The Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico is the nation's most prolific oil producing area. Six formations within the basin have provided the bulk of Permian's 60% increase in oil output since 2007. Crude oil production in the Permian Basin has increased from a low point of 850,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2007 to 1,350,000 bbl/d in 2013.
Largely as a result of this growth, crude oil production from Permian Basin counties has exceeded production from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico region since March 2013, making the Permian the largest crude oil producing region in the United States. In 2013, the Permian Basin accounted for 18% of total U.S. crude oil production. The recent increase in Permian crude oil production is largely concentrated in six low-permeability formations that include the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Bone Spring, Glorieta, Yeso, and Delaware formations. Production from these formations has helped drive the increase in Permian oil production—particularly since 2009—despite declining production from legacy wells.
Almost three-quarters of the increase in Permian crude oil production came from the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, and Bone Spring formations. Counties in these three formations have driven the increase in the Permian Basin's horizontal, oil-directed rig activity in recent months. Production from these three formations collectively increased from about 140,000 bbl/d in 2007 to an estimated 600,000 bbl/d in 2013, increasing their share of total Permian oil production from 16% to 44%. Three other formations—the Delaware formation and the adjacent Glorieta and Yeso formations—also increased production from 2007 to 2013, but to a lesser extent. Production from these three formations rose from 61,000 bbl/d in 2007 to an estimated 112,000 bbl/d in 2013.
The Permian Basin region encompasses an area approximately 250 miles wide and 300 miles long, and it contains many potentially productive low-permeability oil formations.(1)
Although oil production has previously come from the more permeable portions of the Permian formations(2), the application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has opened up large and less-permeable portions of these formations to commercial production (3).

This is especially true for the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, and Bone Spring formations, which have initial well production rates comparable to those found in the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale formations.

"Although oil production has previously come from the more permeable portions of the Permian formations(2), the application of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has opened up large and less-permeable portions of these formations to commercial production (3)."

Non capsico il suo punto, li e' chiaro cosa stanno dicendo.