Il suicidio del fracking

[Metabo]

Ma ti rendi conto che riporti ste cazzate da quando il petrolio era a 80$? Ma un po' di decenza non l'hai?

Pensa oggi che sta a 30 allora...
Poi ti sei letto gli articoli che ti avevo passato, credo di no.

[Amati75]

Scelta saggia contro i troll.

eh gia'.... io sarei troll... mica te.. che non ne hai beccata una.....

[Amati75]

Pensa oggi che sta a 30 allora...
Poi ti sei letto gli articoli che ti avevo passato, credo di no.

Io si.. non ne hai beccata una...

[Immanuel]

Pensa oggi che sta a 30 allora...
Poi ti sei letto gli articoli che ti avevo passato, credo di no.

No, un po' l'ho letti, poi visto che non ne hanno presa una sinora, ho smesso. Anzi ci sarebbe da leggerli ed agire al contrario, tanto sei una certezza, si potrebbero fare bei soldoni.

[Metabo]

No, un po' l'ho letti, poi visto che non ne hanno presa una sinora, ho smesso. Anzi ci sarebbe da leggerli ed agire al contrario, tanto sei una certezza, si potrebbero fare bei soldoni.

Non l'hai letto appunto, strano perché erano tutti dell'economist e bloomberg come piace a te.

[Amati75]

Non l'hai letto appunto, strano perché erano tutti dell'economist e bloomberg come piace a te.

Ahahah... Nel caso megafantablogs... Che citano male e fuori contesto, ogni tanto, testate serie.... Il che ovviamente non preclude che pure tali testate possano sbagliarsi.

Nei fatti non ne hai beccata una... Il resto sono tuoi tentativi di salvataggio di faccia in extremis.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Amati75]

Per capire ancora quanto correzione sia necessaria:

Permian Basin oil production

On January 11, 2016, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its latest Drilling Productivity Report. The EIA estimates that the Permian Basin’s crude oil production amounted to ~2.0 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in December 2015. This is 0.7% higher than November 2015’s production total. However, it’s a 12% rise over production in December 2014. In December 2015, Permian Basin crude oil production rose month-over-month for the 11th time in a row.


Permian Basin oil production rose from 862,860 bpd (barrels per day) in December 2007 to 2.0 MMbpd in December 2015. That’s a rise of 134% in eight years.
Rigs in the Permian Basin

In December 2015, there were 212 active rigs working in the Permian Basin, down from 227 in November 2015. There were 548 active rigs in the Permian Basin in December 2014, the second highest rig count since 2007. The number of active rigs in the United States has fallen significantly in the last year.
Monthly additions from one average rig

The EIA calculates that the average Permian Basin rig added production of 412 bpd in December 2015, an 80% rise since December 2014. In the past eight years, the additional production per rig rose ~6.0x.
What does this mean for OFS companies?

If the Permian Basin’s drilling productivity rises, oilfield services and equipment (or OFS) providers will also benefit. Higher production increases revenue for OFS companies, as upstream companies increase exploration and production activity.
The rising trend over the past year also has a positive impact on drill equipment makers such as Schlumberger (SLB), National Oilwell Varco (NOV), Nabors Industries (NBR), and Halliburton (HAL). Nabors Industries forms 3.2% of the Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH). Read more about Halliburton on Market Realist’s NBR Continues to Underperform in the Oilfield Services Industry.
Permian Basin

The horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing process has unlocked huge oil reserves in the Permian Basin. The most productive Permian formations are the Spraberry, Wolfcamp, and Bone Spring formations.
The Bakken is one of the most prolific crude oil shales in the United States. In the next part of this series, we’ll see why.

Bakken crude oil production

On January 11, 2016, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its Drilling Productivity Report. It estimates that in December 2015, the Bakken Shale produced 1.1 MMbpd (million barrels per day) of crude oil. That’s 1.6% less than the production levels in November 2015. It’s also 9.6% lower than production in December 2014. In December 2015, the Bakken Shale’s month-over-month crude oil production fell for the sixth time in a row.
If oil prices remain suppressed, oil producers will have less incentive to increase production. Crude oil production may even fall. We’re seeing this with the Bakken production.




Shale oil production in the Bakken rose from 147,290 bpd (barrels per day) in December 2007 to ~1.1 MMbpd in December 2015. This represents a 674% rise in eight years.
Active rigs

The number of rigs working at the Bakken Shale decreased to 56 in December 2015, down from 62 in November 2015. A year ago, there were 182 drilling rigs in the region. Most of the rigs in this region are horizontal in trajectory.
The EIA calculates that the average Bakken rig added production of 712 bpd in December 2015, a 46% rise since December 2014. From December 2007, the additional production per rig rose 4.9x.
What this means for OFS companies

The lower Bakken rig count and production levels are negative for OFS (oilfield service) companies such as Schlumberger (SLB), Baker Hughes (BHI), National Oilwell Varco (NOV), and Nabors Industries (NBR). OFS companies manufacture rigs and equipment and provide drilling services. They lose revenues if drilling activity falls. BHI accounts for 2.2% of the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). Read Market Realist’s Impending Merger with HAL Keeps Baker Hughes in the Spotlight to learn more.
Williston Basin has highest tight oil reserves

The most productive formations for horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing are in the Williston Basin’s Bakken and Three Forks formations. According to the EIA, these formations, which cover portions of North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota, have the largest tight oil proved reserves in the United States.
In the next part of this series, we’ll look at the crude oil and natural gas production at the Niobrara Shale.


Permian Shale Oil Production Up Again in December: Who Benefited? - Market Realist


Quindi abbiamo nel Permian:

"Permian Basin’s crude oil production amounted to ~2.0 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in December 2015. This is 0.7% higher than November 2015’s production total. However, it’s a 12% rise over production in December 2014. In December 2015, Permian Basin crude oil production rose month-over-month for the 11th time in a row."

E nel Bakken:

" It estimates that in December 2015, the Bakken Shale produced 1.1 MMbpd (million barrels per day) of crude oil. That’s 1.6% less than the production levels in November 2015. It’s also 9.6% lower than production in December 2014. In December 2015, the Bakken Shale’s month-over-month crude oil production fell for the sixth time in a row."

Con il tracollo dei prezzi del petrolio il Bakken ha ridotto la produzione, ma in misura contenuta rispetto al crollo del prezzo e delle rigs in operazione, mentre nel Permian addirittura continua a crescere.

Gli operatori stanno dimostrando una tenuta, a questi prezzi, decisamente inaspettate per i piu'.

Nei prossimi mesi vedremo un' aumento di compagnie concentrate nello shale andare in tribunale, ma altresì gli assets di queste saranno quindi acquistate da aziende con posizioni finanziarie piu' solide, cosi come, non e' da escludere una riorganizzazione per tale delle problematiche da parte delle banche in quanto alle banche interessa riottenere il capitale e non licenze di produzione o liquidazione di assets in un contesto di prezzi al ribasso.

Il consolidamento del settore continuera', e coem tale, sara' presente quando, eventualmente il ciclo di ribasso si assestera'.

Unicamente vi sara' un "tetto" al rialzo, in quanto le operazioni shale, trattate come una produzione industriale (concetto del "factory floor"), sono adattate sia al ribasso.. ma anche al rialzo.

[Amati75]

.

[Immanuel]

Bene, come previsto lo shale pone fine all'era dei rialzi all'infinito del petrolio decisi dai vari cartelli di beduini e russi, anzi è probabile che dovendo tagliare i bilanci gli arrivi anche un po' più di democrazia senza aver la pancia piena di soldi piovuti dal cielo.

[paulhowe]

Che arrivi la "democrazia" da quelle parti, avrei grossi dubbi, diciamo che sono destinati a ridimensionarsi in termini geopolitici.

Insomma il "rublo d'oro" di Metaboliana memoria non lo vedremo.