Il suicidio del fracking

[Amati75]

American Gas to the Rescue?
THE IMPACT OF US LNG EXPORTS ON EUROPEAN SECURITY AND RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY

http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/energy/CGEP_American%20Gas%20to%20the%20Rescue%3F.pdf

AAs Western governments have responded to Russia’s continued efforts to destabilize Ukraine, the potential for US natural gas exports to inflict economic pain on Moscow and undermine its influence in Europe have made for some eye-catching headlines—try searching the Internet for “hit Putin where it hurts” or “get Putin’s attention” for a sampling. To cut through the hyperbole surrounding this issue, the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy undertook a study that provides a cool-headed examination of the impact of US LNG exports on European energy security and Russian foreign policy. The key findings include:

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The US shale gas boom has already helped European consumers and hurt Russian producers by expanding global gas supply and freeing up liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments previously planned for the US market. This has strengthened Europe’s bargaining position,forcing contract renegotiations and lowering gas prices. US LNG exports will have a similar effect.

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Over the long term, US exports, along with growth in LNG supply from other countries such as Australia, will create a larger, more liquid and more diverse global gas market. This will increase supply options for Europe and other gas consumers, and give them even more leverage in future negotiations with Russia and other producers. Maximizing the benefits of this opportunity, however, requires changes in European policy and infrastructure that focus on reducing vulnerability to Russian supply disruption, not only dependence on Russian gas overall.

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While there are important longer-term benefits for Europe from US LNG exports, they are not a solution to the current crisis. Those terminals already approved will not be online for sever al years. Terminals pending approval, if constructed, will not be available until after 2020.

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Although US LNG exports increase Europe’s bargaining position, they will not free Europe from Russian gas. Russia will remain Europe’s dominant gas supplier for the foreseeable future, due both to its ability to remain cost-competitive in the region and the fact that US LNG will displace other high-cost sources of natural gas supply. In our modeling we find that 9 billion cubic feet per day (93 billion cubic meters per year) of gross US LNG exports results in only a 1.5 bcf/d (15 bcm) net addition in global natural gas production.

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By forcing state-run Gazprom to reduce prices to remain competitive in the European market, US LNG exports could have a meaningful impact on total Russian gas export revenue. While painful for Russian gas companies, the total economic impact on state coffers is unlikely to be significant enough to prompt a change in Moscow’s foreign policy, particularly in the next few years.


In questa interessante pubblicazione del 2014, ancora lontani dal crollo del fracking , si auspicava un grosso contributo di LNG ameriCano per destabiliyyare l'economia e la politica estera russa.
Poi leggendo tra le righe si scopriva che, insomma, non ci sarebbe stata questa invasione e che la Russia sarebbe stato il principale fornitore di gas ancora per decenni.
Questo prima della caduta del prezzo del barile, la distruzione del fenomeno fracking, la ritornata dipendenza degli USA dall'import energetico etc.......
Come si vede l'articolo postato alcuni giorni fa dove si annunciava con clamore lo start up della LNG Hub Sabine e' altri e' solo propaganda, ma niente di veramente trascendentale per l'approvigianamento del gas in europa che e ' e rimarra' russo.
e poi anche fosse si legge chiaramente a pag 34 che l'export del gas copre il 3% del PIL

Bellissime questa fantasiose affermazioni, che ancora una volta dimostrano, come questo strano soggetto parli senza prima informarsi:

".. la distruzione del fenomeno fracking, la ritornata dipendenza degli USA dall'import energetico etc......."

Nel mentre parlando dell' ATTUALITA' nel mondo REALE:

Vladimir Putin may be throwing his military power around like never before, but the Kremlin is finding another weapon in its arsenal -- massive natural gas exports -- is losing its punch.
Facing unprecedented competition in its main market and slow progress in cracking into new ones in China, Gazprom PJSC has dropped the bluster and threats it brandished with clients in Europe amid the Ukrainian crisis last year. Instead, the Russian gas giant is showing new flexibility with customers, hastily reviving pipeline projects to bring gas directly to the European Union and pushing to settle an EU antitrust claim that could cost it billions of dollars.
“The position of Gazprom and the Russian side is becoming flexible in light of the changing situation, defending our interests but also taking into account the demands of the European side,” First Deputy Energy Minister Alexey Teksler said in an interview.

The new approach echoes Russia’s efforts to ease tensions with the West over Ukraine and boost cooperation fighting terrorists in Syria. But the turn in the $38 billion gas trade is more than just a tactical shift. After years of being accused of using it as a political lever to pressure critics and reward allies among its clients, Russia is facing the reality that its gas weapon is no longer so potent in a market where customers have many more options.
Diversification ’Mantra’

“In the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, gas diversification became a mantra for both the EU and Russia,” said Simone Tagliapietra, energy fellow at Bruegel, the Brussels-based think tank. But “Russia needs the EU gas market as much as -- if not more than -- the EU market needs Russian gas,” he said.

Taxes on oil and gas account for about half of Russian government revenue. All the gas to Europe is shipped by pipeline, meaning Russia can’t divert it to other markets. Links to China aren’t expected to be built until after 2019. Russia shelved plans to turn Turkey into a conduit to Europe after the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane near the Syrian border last month. But Moscow left existing gas sales to Turkey -- worth $10 billion last year -- out of its sanctions.
Russian officials say the party line has changed from confrontation to conciliation with the EU after efforts to find new markets in China and Turkey proved harder than Gazprom had hoped, just as competition in its core market is heating up.

Spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said Gazprom’s “export policy has always been balanced and adaptive,” adding that European customers have become more interested in Russian supplies.
To be sure, Europe’s own gas production is declining, as is output in suppliers in North Africa, meaning demand for imports is likely to rise. Unlike in past years, Russia will face plenty of rivals for that market.
Competing Suppliers

“There will be competition between American gas, Russian gas, Algerian gas, Middle Eastern gas and all that should be favorable to the European consumer,” Total SA Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said in October. (Bene si scopre che il CEO della TOTAL ha la mia stessa opinione e non quella dei teorici "consulenti" )
Next year, the first shipments of shale gas from the U.S. are expected in Europe, while new projects in Asia are expected to add more to global supply.

Used to dictating terms thanks to its size -- Gazprom supplies about 30 percent of the EU’s gas -- the Russian state-controlled giant finds itself having to fight to protect its share of a market that it depends on for as much as a third of its revenue.
“U.S. shale gas will provide a very important opportunity for European consumers to strengthen their hands,” said Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency.
The Kremlin’s traditional hard-line approach to customers was on display last year when tensions over the crisis in Ukraine led to the worst breach in relations with the West since the Cold War.
“Europe has lost,” Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller declared last May after Russia signed its first-ever gas supply deal with China. He said another would come in the “nearest future” that would allow Russia to redirect some EU-bound gas from deep in West Siberia to Asia.
Supply Cuts

In September 2014, Gazprom started to limit gas deliveries to some EU members who had been supplying the fuel to Ukraine in place of Russian supplies that had been cut off amid a dispute over prices. Russia warned that the dispute with Kiev could disrupt supplies to Europe, as similar fights had in 2006 and 2009.
Putin in December shocked partners in Europe when he abruptly canceled the $45 billion South Stream pipeline under the Black Sea to southern Europe that had faced opposition from the EU. In its place, he proposed new pipelines to Turkey, which would become a new hub for supplies to Europe.
Tensions peaked in January 2015, when Miller told the EU’s new energy chief, Maros Sefcovic, Gazprom would cut off shipments to Europe via Ukraine after the current transit contract runs out in 2019, forcing customers to build new pipelines.
“We don’t work like this,” a stunned Sefcovic told reporters before he left the Russian capital.
But by spring, the pressure was rising on Gazprom.
Price Hit

The plunge in oil prices, which affect those for gas with a lag of six to nine months, had begun to bite. Gazprom expects revenue in Europe in 2016 to be down 16 percent, the lowest in 11 years. Its giant Siberian fields are producing far below capacity. Gazprom now says production this year will fall to a record low on weak demand, primarily from Ukraine.

In April, Brussels unsealed an antitrust complaint alleging Gazprom of unfair pricing in Eastern Europe. The gas giant could face a fine of as much as $3.8 billion if found guilty, VTB Capital in Moscow estimated at the time.
Talks with China on more gas sales had stalled.
The Kremlin decided to shift its tone from open disdain to an equally open embrace, said a senior Russian official.
After a September visit to China that again failed to yield a deal to expand shipments, Gazprom hastily signed a pact with five big EU companies for a new pipeline to carry gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany. Russian officials say they’re ready to offer easier price terms for investors in the deal, as well as concessions to ensure the pact wins EU approval. (come appunto ampiamente previsto, ovvio... non dai "consulenti"..) The company later made a formal offer to settle the EU’s antitrust charges.
Miller publicly backed off the threats to cease shipments via Ukraine after 2019 that had shocked Sefcovic in January. Gazprom also softened its line in the market, giving in to European clients’ calls for more pricing flexibility by offering its first auctions of gas.

An executive at one of Gazprom’s biggest customers, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential business, said the Russian giant has dropped its politically driven hard line and is trying to stop the erosion of its business.


Russia Tries Soft Touch With Europe as Market Blunts Gas Weapon - Bloomberg Business


Piu' diversificazione, meno potere contrattuale per i fornitori e maggiore per i clienti, ovvero tutto di guadagnato per l' Europa.

[paulhowe]

basterebbe dire quante navi metanifere deve costruire l'ameriCania per esportare il gas in europa.
1000? 2000? 5000?

Il cervello ha fatto tilt???

Credo di si.

Ti e' stato detto che non ha alcuna importanza "quante navi servono" !

Quello che conta e' il prezzo del gas, perche venderlo a 15 dollari, non e' come venderlo a 6.

Almeno per l'economia della russia.

E quindi se gli USA grazie agli shales si sono fatti la produzione in casa e altri paesi stanno accrescendo tale produzione, i prezzi dello stesso sono destinati a scendere, ed infatti la cosa sta gia avvenendo.

Non conta quindi una mazza se esporteranno o non esporteranno tale prodotto.

Lo so, non e' una bella notizia per te....continua a fare il troll che fa finta di non capire.

[animal]

farmi dare del troll, da due tra i piu' quotati in TP e' un vero onore.

Di tutta la paccottiglia postata da Amati Bamba mi basta evidenziare questa slide dove emerge che la Russia perderebbe ben 20 miliardi di $ assestandosi nel 2016 a 32 miliardi$ di revenue da gas
20 miliardi sono meno dell'1% del PIL russo!
Una vera catastrofe.........
Troll ameriCani uniti crescono..........

[Amati75]

farmi dare del troll, da due tra i piu' quotati in TP e' un vero onore.

Di tutta la paccottiglia postata da Amati Bamba mi basta evidenziare questa slide dove emerge che la Russia perderebbe ben 20 miliardi di $ assestandosi nel 2016 a 32 miliardi$ di revenue da gas
20 miliardi sono meno dell'1% del PIL russo!
Una vera catastrofe.........
Troll ameriCani uniti crescono..........

Il bello e' che questo pensa pure di essere una persona intelligente...

La stessa REALTA' presente smentisce l'affermazione del "genio" economico (90 minuti di fragorose risate ininterrotte...).

Vediamo furbacchione... sono buono, le do una mano nel arrivare a capire da solo l'idiozia della sua affermazione, mi dice come sta andando il PIL della Russia... e come l' andamento sia appunto direttamente correlato con le entrate del settore idrocarburi? (qui siamo a livelli terra terra).

[animal]

Il bello e' che questo pensa pure di essere una persona intelligente...

La stessa REALTA' presente smentisce l'affermazione del "genio" economico (90 minuti di fragorose risate ininterrotte...).

Vediamo furbacchione... sono buono, le do una mano nel arrivare a capire da solo l'idiozia della sua affermazione, mi dice come sta andando il PIL della Russia... e come l' andamento sia appunto direttamente correlato con le entrate del settore idrocarburi? (qui siamo a livelli terra terra).

Il Pil russo sprofondera' del 3%, pari a circa 50-60 miliardi di $ solo quando avverra' l'invasione aliena di gas ameriCano in europa.
Dato che avete pompato questa possibilita' gia' da due anni potete dire chi costruisce le 1000 ( e vado basso) navi metanifere????
E' una piccola domandina, ma stranamente non trova risposta.......e data la mia ignoranza vorrei essere Illuminato da appartenenti al $istema

[animal]

lasciamoli lavorare...stanno cercando di capire come fare a costruire 1000 navi metanifere ( almeno) per l'invasione aliena di LNG ameriCano

[the fool]

Il Pil russo sprofondera' del 3%, pari a circa 50-60 miliardi di $ solo quando avverra' l'invasione aliena di gas ameriCano in europa.
Dato che avete pompato questa possibilita' gia' da due anni potete dire chi costruisce le 1000 ( e vado basso) navi metanifere????
E' una piccola domandina, ma stranamente non trova risposta.......e data la mia ignoranza vorrei essere Illuminato da appartenenti al $istema

il più russo sta già sprofondando di oltre il 3%

[animal]

il più russo sta già sprofondando di oltre il 3%

grazie della puntualizzazione...ma si intende che perdera' un 3% (ulteriore???) quando non esportera' piu' gas in europa causa l'invasione aliena di LNG ameriCano

[the fool]

grazie della puntualizzazione...ma si intende che perdera' un 3% (ulteriore???) quando non esportera' piu' gas in europa causa l'invasione aliena di LNG ameriCano

npn si capisce proprio quello che scrivi.
scrivi ipotesi che nessuno ha mai affermato per arrivare a tesi che nessuno ha mai esposto.
e poi ti sorprendi che nessuno ti risponda, mistero assoluto.

[animal]

npn si capisce proprio quello che scrivi.
scrivi ipotesi che nessuno ha mai affermato per arrivare a tesi che nessuno ha mai esposto.
e poi ti sorprendi che nessuno ti risponda, mistero assoluto.

se l'ipotesi e' quella che ci sarebbe stata un'inondazione di LNG dagli U$A all'europa, non e' una invenzione, ma un mantra proposto per circa un anno, in contemporanea alla cosiddetta rivoluzione del fracking.
La seconda ha gia' mostrato i suoi limiti, fortunatamente, per l' LNG invece trattasi di una chimera dato che non esistono le ships, se non nella fantasia dei filoameriCani!