Iran. Quale futuro.

[Zdenek]

Il rappresentante di Teheran all'Aiea: "Dissiperemo ogni dubbio"
Il presidente Ahmadinejad sul petrolio: "Positivo l'aumento dei prezzi"
L'Iran apre sul nucleare
"Pronti alla collaborazione"


TEHERAN - L'Iran è pronto a proseguire "pienamente" la sua collaborazione con l'Aiea, l'Agenzia per l'energia atomica delle Nazioni Unite. Lo ha dichiarato a Mosca il rappresentante iraniano presso l'Aiea, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, citato dall'agenzia russa Ria-Novisti.

"L'Iran è pronto a proseguire senza riserve la sua cooperazione con l'Aiea. Siamo pronti a dissipare tutte le imprecisioni riguardanti il nostro dossier nucleare", ha detto Soltanieh.

A Teheran era andato in vista la settimana scorsa lo stesso direttore generale dell'Aiea, l'egiziano Mohammed El Baradei, nel tentativo di indurre il regime degli ayatollah a far allentare la tensione con gesti distensivi, come la sospensione del proceso di arricchimento dell'uranio. Gli incontri avutri da El Baradei, peraltro nemmeno ricevuto dal presidente iraniano Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, erano risultati senza esito.

Intanto Ahmadinejad ha detto che l'aumento dei prezzi del greggio, con il corrispondente incremento degli introiti, è stata "cosa molto positiva". Lo riporta l'agenzia di stampa Mehr. "L'incremento dei prezzi del petrolio e la relativa crescita delle entrate è molto positiva e noi speriamo - ha spiegato - che i prezzi del petrolio raggiungano i loro reali livelli". Un'analoga affermazione aveva fatto in precedenza il ministro del Petrolio iraniano.

[Squalo]

Intanto Ahmadinejad ha detto che l'aumento dei prezzi del greggio, con il corrispondente incremento degli introiti, è stata "cosa molto positiva". Lo riporta l'agenzia di stampa Mehr. "L'incremento dei prezzi del petrolio e la relativa crescita delle entrate è molto positiva e noi speriamo - ha spiegato - che i prezzi del petrolio raggiungano i loro reali livelli". Un'analoga affermazione aveva fatto in precedenza il ministro del Petrolio iraniano.

Molto bene, speriamo che il prezzo del petrolio continui a salire.

[Fuori_schema]

Qualcuno di voi sa se la famosa borsa iraniana del Petrolio sta funzionando?

Quanto è trattata? Chi sono i riferimenti?

[Airbus]

"Condoleeza" ... ecco perché l'impiegato dell'anagrafe rinunciò
a chiamarla "Con Dolcezza".

questa mi sa che l'hai rubata a Hugo...

[Zdenek]

"Condoleeza" ... ecco perché l'impiegato dell'anagrafe rinunciò
a chiamarla "Con Dolcezza".

questa mi sa che l'hai rubata a Hugo...

Riconosco la mia scrittura.
Ho semplicemente riportato un fatto spesso citato nelle cronache.

Chi è Hugo?

[Fuori_schema]

Ho trovato questo della Deutsche Press del 1 Aprile

Tehran - Iran is still insisting on opening a Persian Gulf oil bourse with the southern Iranian island Kish as its base, state-television reported Saturday.

'The issue has already been agreed upon and the oil ministry has been instructed to open this bourse in the Persian Gulf island of Kish,' Economic and Finance Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari said.

'This bourse will have a positive impact on oil sale by not only Iran but the whole (Persian Gulf) region,' the minister added.

He also reiterated that the new oil bourse could also replace the dollar-based oil exchange with euro.

Iran argues that while 60 per cent of the global oil and 25 per cent natural gas need was covered by the Persian Gulf states, oil dealin in either New York or London would have no meaning.

Iran also wants to avoid the dollar-based oil exchange for not being target of economic problems of the United States and calls on a fair distribution of global economic interests.

The plan to open the oil-bourse in Kish was raised by the administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last year and supposed to be opened before the new Persian year which began March 21 but eventually postponed.

[Zdenek]

Qualcuno di voi sa se la famosa borsa iraniana del Petrolio sta funzionando?

Quanto è trattata? Chi sono i riferimenti?

E' da un mese che nessuno ne scrive.
Gli stessi Iraniani in Italia non ne hanno notizie.

Resta un fatto, però, l'accordo commerciale di fornitura con Francia e Cina.
Entrambi pagheranno in Euro.

[stuart mill]

Zdenek: dell'm3 de stiamo parlando nel thread l'inizio della fine, ronnie è ancora più pessimista: perchè non fai un salto li e dai il tuo parere?

[Zdenek]

Iranian Oil Bourse Is History...But Oil's Still Dangerous For Dollar
Wednesday, April 5, 2006

On March 21st Iran was scheduled to launch the world's first oil trading exchange that would have set prices in euros rather than dollars. Many analysts feared this would have spelled disaster for the greenback since oil is the world's most popular commodity and requires most nations to hold vast reserves of dollars in order to purchase it. If oil were to be suddenly settled in euros, the global need to hoard dollars would diminish considerably, eliminating one of the key supports for the US dollar in the currency market.

The doomsday scenario did not come to pass, as Iran failed to construct the necessary infrastructure for a successful launch of the exchange. It is still insisting on opening a Persian Gulf oil bourse with the southern Iranian island Kish as its base of operations according to a report by Iranian state-television on Saturday. 'The issue has already been agreed upon and the oil ministry has been instructed to open this bourse in the Persian Gulf island of Kish,' Economic and Finance Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari said. However, at this point, the issue of an Iranian oil exchange to challenge the New York and London markets appears to be more of a P.R. stunt rather than a viable competitive threat.

Even if the Iranians managed to open up for trading, the key question remains: who would trade with them? Given the recent antagonistic rhetoric of the country's political leaders, many investors would likely shun the bourse for fear of not having their trades honored. Successful financial markets require trust and cooperation and Iran's antagonistic actions over the past several months (especially their insistence on developing nuclear capabilities) have engendered little goodwill in the world community.
But dollar bulls should not be so quick to breathe a sigh of relief....
Dollar Dodged a Bullet, But Not the Firing Squad
While the immediate threat of the Iranian oil bourse may have disappeared, the greenback remains highly vulnerable to rising oil prices. Indeed the irony of the matter, is that despite the failure of the Iranian oil bourse, crude itself is trading higher now than when the issue of the Iranian oil bourse first gripped the attention of the financial markets.
Political instability in Nigeria and ever growing demand from China have put an ironclad bid underneath the commodity. To understand why, one only needs to look at the report of the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission. It noted that China produced 11.2% more electricity in Jan-Feb period of this year than last. But China's crude oil output only rose 2.5%. Since electric power generation demands energy to get the turbines going, this means China is experiencing a massive deficit and therefore increased demand for crude on the world's markets.
T Boone Pickens-a man whose hedge fund generated over $1.5 Billion in profits over the past 5 years-projects that very soon world demand for oil will increase to 87 MM barrels per day while world supply will only be able to produce 85 MM barrels per day.
In fact, as China continues to grow, oil analysts calculate that it will create demand for an additional 20 MM barrels per day if it simply matches the current per capita energy consumption of Mexico. As we drove the highways of Southern Florida this weekend, we couldn't help but notice that gasoline prices - which only a few weeks earlier were near the $2.50 gallon level - were now inching towards the $3.00 barrier. We believe that the $3.00/gallon gasoline will have a serious negative impact on US consumer spending going forward and that in turn will weigh heavily on the US dollar.
Finally, while the Iranian oil bourse is history, the country's destabilizing effect on the oil markets may just be beginning.
Just this week, Iran announced that it has successfully fired a high-speed underwater missile capable of destroying huge warships and submarines. The Iranian-made missile has a speed of about 350 kilometers an hour underwater, claims the Iranian navy. If this is true, it means the missile can travel three or four times faster than a torpedo and according to Iranian navy the missile has a " very powerful warhead designed to hit big submarines...even if enemy warship sensors identify the missile, no warship can escape from this missile because of its high speed.".
Even more dramatic, Iran tested this missile in the Straight of Hormuz - the narrow passageway in the Persian Gulf that borders Iran and through which 25% of the world's oil supply flows. This is also a very provocative move given that the UN gave them 30 days starting last week to stop their nuke program. More turmoil in both the oil and the currency markets is the likely bet.
Kathy Lien & Boris Schlossberg
Editors, The Money Trader
Web site: http://www.money-trader.com/
(Kathy Lien & Boris Schlossberg, editors of The Money Trader)

[Fuori_schema]

Ultimissime, l'Iran guarda all'oro.

Iran press: Rising gold price should sound alarm for government, says economist

Apr 20, 2006 (BBC Monitoring via COMTEX) -- The sudden rise in gold prices, whether on an occasional or regular basis, speaks of a hidden demand in Iran's economy. That demand is growing by the day as the money in circulation increases. Mohammad Baqer Nowbakht, the deputy for economic research at the Strategic Research Centre, considers the sudden rise in gold prices in the domestic markets to indicate that demand is focusing on the gold market. He believes that the money in circulation leads to potential demand in the economy just as purchasing power does and says: If demand is stimulated to move towards any of the existing markets, it will definitely unbalance the market in the short term and lead to increased prices. If the supply fails to develop commensurately, increased prices will continue in the long term as well. According to a report by ISNA, the deputy for economic research at the Strategic Research Centre stressed that in view of this, governments must agree to control the volume of money in circulation with the help of monetary and fiscal tools in line with production capacity and sustainability of demand. He went on to say: Based on numerous interviews and articles published in the press, economic experts have been expressing their grave concern for a long time over the effects of some government policies such as repeated withdrawals from currency reserves and increasing public expenditure, especially in the 1385 [year beginning 21 March] budget bill, that lead to increased money in circulation. Nowbakht went on to say: If the existing money in circulation in the country moves towards investment and leads to increased production or even finds a slow circulation in the form of bank deposits, its damaging effects can be eliminated or mitigated. He added: Unfortunately, deposit accounts are not encouraged in any way whatsoever when on the one hand government policies lead to increased money in circulation and, on the other, the private sector's motivation to invest has been drastically reduced in the light of Iran's political and international conditions as well as the recent announcement of reduced bank interest rates. The secretary-general of the Moderation and Development Party said: On past experience, traditionally the four unofficial markets of cars, housing, currency and gold have always absorbed the money in circulation in Iran's economy, especially in the past decade. The car market is saturated as a result of copious production by domestic plants and foreign imports, the housing market is stagnant due to limited demand, currency prices are unfavourable because of the currency reserves and tough government controls; so given the relative increase in gold price in world markets, gold has come into the attention of those with ready money. The deputy for economic research at the Strategic Research Centre said that following the moderation of the gold market, increased gold prices must be seen as a warning bell for the country's economy and the present anti-inflationary policies. He went on to note: Government decision-makers should no longer ignore the sincere warnings given by economic experts of diverse political tendencies and should take into account economic laws and be aware of the differing effects of certain social decisions even though such decisions may have been taken with the motive of serving the public and the low-income walks of life and to bring about relative welfare in the community.

Source: Aftab-e Yazd website, Tehran, in Persian 20 Apr 06